Emilia doesn't dissapoint/Daniel dieing/98E poised for development/disturbed area
Made using 5 PM EDT advisories
INTRODUCTION
Emilia now a category 3 after category 4 peak.
Daniel looks like Jose.
98E poised to develop.
Area of disturbed weather moves over florida.
EMILIA NOW A CATEGORY 3 AFTER CATEGORY 4 PEAK
Hurricane Emilia surely didn't dissapoint me. It intensified as expected to a category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph (slightly under my thought of a 145 mph peak). It weakened slightly before going through an Eye wall replacement cycle (EWRC). As it entered into the EWRC it continued to weaken before compleating the EWRC. It bottomed out as a category 2 hurricane before restrengthening to its current strength of 115 mph. Emilia appears to have gone annular after the last EWRC. Its eye is much larger than the previous eye.
FIGURE 1 shows size of the eye as compared to the main storm.
I expect a continued strengthining through the next advisory before taporing off in intensity. Emilia should move generally toward Hawaii. Possibly directly stiking them as a remnant low. Only increasing rain showers though.
DANIEL LOOKS LIKE JOSE
Well what more can I say.
Daniel
Jose
98E POISED TO DEVELOP
Invest 98E wants to be named and so the NHC is giving this an 80% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. I would give it a slightly lower chance in the next 48 hours of development. 70 %.
My forecast for 98E is to move more northerly than Daniel and Emilia and to recurve into Baja california.
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER FLORIDA
An area of interest (AOI) has moved near florida this evening and currently has very weak circulation and it is not stacked. Most convection is off to the east. As it moves towards the Gulf of Mexico we may see further organization, however I am not expecting development into a named storm.
Thank you for reading this blog!
I will not be able to post again untill monday or tuesday.
Wxh98
Reader Comments
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Daniel looks a ton like Jose.
I stick to math and science:) thanks for the feedback
I expect to see Fabio soon-tonight or tomorrow morning. I agree with you on 70% but with a little more organization we will have a TD.
The Debby wannabee over Florida will not be.
thank you
thanks!
-__-
anyway nice blog.
stupid wrf wants to develop the blog
thanks TA:)
Yup have state, cant do it!
never heard of the wrf which means itisnt usually right which means it wont be right now because no other model shows it
The WRF is a very reliable short-range model.
Of course, you wouldn't know that.
i know that and dont trust it this time.
it gives the blob a track S of FL?
really?
KK
thanks
thanks pat also
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