weatherh98's Blog

Carlotta

Posted by: weatherh98, 11:16 PM GMT on Juni 15, 2012

INTRO

I absolutely swore I would NOT EVER write a blog on an epac storm... Im breaking it. I have too. Oh and pardon any gramatical errors I'm watching Duck Dynasty.

RAPID INTENSIFICATION

Starting around 7 AM this Tropical storm Carlotta underwent our first western hemisphere case of Rapid Intensification. And boy, when it started it went fast. It wrapped convection all the way around and formed the eyewall. It continued to sift out any dry air and form the eyewall better throughout the day going from a 70 MPH tropical storm to its current 105 MPH cat 2 hurricane. Its movement has stayed a pretty consistent northwest track.

Satellite picture of this RI

ADT NUMBERS
ADT numbers have estamites high above what the recon found all day. here are the most current ones and they support a cat 3 hurricane.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.4mb/107.2kt

(This is higher in knots than the official one in mph)

MY FORECAST

From now she will more than likely push her way inland quickly as its motion is much faster than predicted. and because of this, it won't feel the trough in central mexico as much and go more north than current NHC track. After its more northerly track it should begin to recurve in about 12-18 hours as it feels the trough build in. you see this trough on the ADDS-prog charts.

After it recurves i could see some reintensification IF it is not completely torn apart by the mountainous terrain in mexico.

Some of the energy may enter the BOC and interact with a Twave and make an AOI.
INTENSE RAIN+SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR=FLOODING

Do I really need to say more? Didn't think so.

Carlotta is a very intense and dangerous storm and thos in the path of her should already be preprared. same old same old.

REST OF THE WORLD

In the west pacific we have Typhoon Guchol, a category 3 typhoon with winds of 115 mph. This is predicted to become a category 4 by the NHC. This is expected to hit land somewhere near Tokyo Yokahama and God know that this area doesnt need any more disasters after the earthquake and tsunami.

I havent looked at this storm a ton so I wont say anything either way.

In the northeast GOM there is an AOI with a near 0% chance of development and it probably will not develop. It should begin to move back west towards texas as a ridge builds in to its north. Of course we must always watch any blob or MCV that enters the Gulf during hurricane season.

As most of you know some of models are putting a storm in the gulf a few days out. I may write a blog on it as it moves into place.

This took a while because i had to do stuff including walking my dog where i saw a 4 foot gator in a canal about a block from my house.

Thank you for reading I appreciate any feedback that yall will give.

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1. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:20 PM GMT on Juni 15, 2012
Nobody even knows what Duck Dynasty is. Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25929

2. weatherh98 11:22 PM GMT on Juni 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Nobody even knows what Duck Dynasty is. It shows off the louisiana redneckiness Member Since: Juni 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6280

3. weatherh98 11:31 PM GMT on Juni 15, 2012
Thanks again everyone Member Since: Juni 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6280

4. MAweatherboy1 10:15 AM GMT on Juni 16, 2012
Well done! Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6516

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