susieq110's WunderBlog

Possible Trouble

Posted by: susieq110, 07:13 PM GMT on Juli 17, 2012

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A vigorous mid/upper low has developed this afternoon from a tropical wave over Florida. High resolution water vapor and visible imagery show a nice spin that continues to tighten. Composite radar imagery shows strong to severe convection wrapping around a more focused, consolidated low.

Surface observations do indicate a surface circulation. However , pressures remain high, around 1015mb.

Our exclusive SIISE Estimate initialized well over Florida. I am in agreement with the estimate. (SEE BELOW).

As of 10:00am CT 12z 7/17
AOI Near West Florida
Initial 26.73kts. Over land
Forecast Intensity
+12h 36.73kts.
+24h 39.61kts.
+36h 34.26kts. Over land
+48h 35.97kts. Overland

There has been some debate whether or not the circulation will reemerge over the western Gulf or stay inland its entire life. The 12z NAM bring a surface circulation over the gulf for about 18-24 hours then takes the system inland along the Mississippi/ Alabama Coast. The 12z GFS keeps the system overland and only develops rain and storms in the same area. The 12z ECMWF close to the GFS and keeps development to a minimum.

As of 1pm CT The NHC hasn't mentioned the system.

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1. GeorgiaStormz 07:22 PM GMT on Juli 17, 2012
Thx. it wont develop :) Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7165

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Donald Flowers is the Founder and Editor in Chief of The Daily Wind-Up

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