psualum95's WunderBlog

Posted by: psualum95, 12:08 AM GMT on November 27, 2011

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141405Z - 141530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER NRN
FL THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
ADVANCING SEWD INTO CNTRL FL LATER TODAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...MORNING RAOBS FROM TLH AND JAX INDICATE A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER NRN FL...WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS AOA 17
G/KG AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.7 INCHES. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM TO AROUND 90F
BY AFTERNOON. MODIFYING AREA RAOBS WITH THIS TEMPERATURE YIELDS
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. ONE CLUSTER HAS ALREADY FORMED
OVER TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES AS OF 1345Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS POSSIBLE WITHIN A ZONE OF AGITATED CUMULUS ORIENTED W TO E
FROM TAYLOR COUNTY TO ST JOHNS COUNTY...AND PERHAPS ALONG A COLD
FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO NRN FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER FLOW
VEERS FROM WLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO NNWLY IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE SE. THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AND A HOT STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...