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Spring Florida Weather Blog

Posted by: psualum95, 12:08 AM GMT on November 27, 2011

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141405Z - 141530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER NRN
FL THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
ADVANCING SEWD INTO CNTRL FL LATER TODAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...MORNING RAOBS FROM TLH AND JAX INDICATE A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER NRN FL...WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS AOA 17
G/KG AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.7 INCHES. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM TO AROUND 90F
BY AFTERNOON. MODIFYING AREA RAOBS WITH THIS TEMPERATURE YIELDS
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. ONE CLUSTER HAS ALREADY FORMED
OVER TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES AS OF 1345Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS POSSIBLE WITHIN A ZONE OF AGITATED CUMULUS ORIENTED W TO E
FROM TAYLOR COUNTY TO ST JOHNS COUNTY...AND PERHAPS ALONG A COLD
FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO NRN FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER FLOW
VEERS FROM WLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO NNWLY IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE SE. THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AND A HOT STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

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351. psualum95 08:33 PM GMT on Juni 14, 2013
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL 431 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT * AT 428 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROYAL PALM BEACH...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * THE STORM WILL AFFECT... GOLDEN LAKES... HAVERHILL... PALM BEACH GARDENS... MANGONIA PARK... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6553

352. psualum95 08:37 PM GMT on Juni 14, 2013
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL BAKER-BRADFORD-CHARLTON-CLAY-DUVAL-NASSAU-ST. JOHNS- 435 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN CLAY...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD...SOUTHEASTERN BAKER... NORTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS...SOUTHERN CHARLTON...SOUTHERN DUVAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT... AT 436 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALDWIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BRYCEVILLE...BALDWIN...MAXVILLE...WHITEHOUSE AIR FIELD...CISCO GARDENS...OAKLEAF PLANTATION...NAS JAX...CECIL FIELD... SAN MARCO AND RIVERSIDE THROUGH 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6553

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