atmoaggie's WunderBlog

Note to self: add in links directly to current shear map, later.

Quoting Patrap:
Monday Shear,forecast



Cant make the Slidell trip today,..too Busy with the Graduation

Thanks for the shear map...I'll use that one if ya don't mind.

The open house at the WFO was pretty neat. I saw some folks I know through work, met some others.

Hahnville FD came out with their tornado simulator (just what does it sound and feel like when a tornado passes over your house). Interesting.

They had FEMA, the Army Corps, and others out there as well.

And, we launched a weather balloon at 18 UTC. Did you know that they fill those WX balloons with Hydrogen? Helium will not maintain enough lift to get up to 40 mb quickly enough. And they make calculations of how much hydrogen will give them the lift they want without getting too much lift or popping the balloon before 40 mb (ever expanding as it rises, of course).

Quoting tkeith:
Thanks for consolidating all those links in one place Atmo!

I have a few of them saved to my favorites already, some I didn't even know about.

Thanks again.

You are welcome to em, but I have to confess that I started out with entirely selfish intentions. Too many machines and too many trips to google or trying to remember a URL.

I think I am going to add a severe section. Mom lives in Tulsa, and we have our own instances often enough that I expect I'll be googling stuff for that too (Pat's favorite DuPage met warnings come to mind here.)

Plus, when the phone rings and one of my more internet adept relatives is calling because of the weather...I can direct them here.

Added in the counter thingy...if no one is looking my options are wide open. If someone is looking, I'll keep it as-is and just make additions.

Quoting Patrap:
Looking pretty spiffy in here..

Thanks, Pat. Just trying to make it as useful as possible...and having a little fun.

BTW, on June 24, I'll be in the CBD for a deposition. It might run as long as 12:30. I still have your number and I could call about having lunch as soon as I am out.

Otherwise, we could meet up on the 29th or 30th. The trial is then...assuming it doesn't settle, or any one of the myriad of other reasons trials do not go on as scheduled.

You know of any of those you will not be available for lunch?

Quoting Patrap:
June 14 2009 Flag Day

Semper Fidelis..

May She wave for the Brave,The Proud,.and the Country,this Day and Forever.

Ooorahh!

Thanks for your service (personally and collectively)

"Beating the radar: Getting a jump on storm prediction

MADISON — Satellite observation of cloud temperatures may be able to accurately predict severe thunderstorms up to 45 minutes earlier than relying on traditional radar alone, say researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Space Science and Engineering Center.

Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) have developed a way to measure temperature changes in the tops of clouds to improve forecast times for rapidly growing storms.

"The value of detecting and analyzing these changes is that we can get up to a 45-minute jump on radar detection of the same storm system. A 'nowcast' becomes a 'forecast,'" says CIMSS scientist Wayne Feltz.

Clouds start cooling long before radar can identify them as storms. As a warm cumulus cloud grows and expands upward into higher altitudes, it will rapidly cool. Rapid cloud-top cooling indicates that a cloud top is rising into the frigid upper reaches of the atmosphere and can reveal the formation of a severe storm.

Cloud temperatures can be measured by the wavelengths of light they radiate in the near-infrared and infrared frequencies. Current geostationary satellites — satellites that stay over the same location on Earth — over the U.S. can discern five different bands in these frequencies, each band revealing a different state of cloud development. Looking down from space, the satellite can determine whether the cloud top consists of liquid water, supercooled water or even ice.

By running high-speed five-minute satellite scans through a carefully designed computer algorithm, the scientists can quickly analyze cloud top temperature changes to look for signs of storm formation. "We are looking for transitions," says Feltz. "Does the cloud top consist of liquid water that is cooling rapidly? That could signal a possible convective initiation."
"

The key is the 5-minute interval. Keeps continuity with our radar update and is frequent enough to detect changes. I wonder if/when this will be made an operational product. I think we have had few instances where bloggers here had severe events pop up rapidly...before much was to be seen by radar..

From: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-06/uow-btr061709.php

Quoting lavinia:
Hi Atmo! I'm a newbie and so pretty much always a lurker. You have some great info and links here. Thanks so much!!

Welcome! Glad to share.

How interesting...

New type of El Nino could mean more hurricanes make landfall

"Normally, El Niño results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall," said Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

That's because this new type of El Niño, known as El Niño Modoki (from the Japanese meaning "similar, but different"), forms in the Central Pacific, rather than the Eastern Pacific as the typical El Niño event does. Warming in the Central Pacific is associated with a higher storm frequency and a greater potential for making landfall along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central America.

Even though the oceanic circulation pattern of warm water known as El Niño forms in the Pacific, it affects the circulation patterns across the globe, changing the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. This regular type of El Niño (from the Spanish meaning "little boy" or "Christ child") is more difficult to forecast, with predictions of the December circulation pattern not coming until May. At first glance, that may seem like plenty of time. However, the summer before El Niño occurs, the storm patterns change, meaning that predictions of El Niño come only one month before the start of hurricane season in June. But El Niño Modoki follows a different prediction pattern.

"This new type of El Niño is more predictable," said Webster. "We're not sure why, but this could mean that we get greater warning of hurricanes, probably by a number of months."

As to why the form of El Niño is changing to El Niño Modoki, that's not entirely clear yet, said Webster.

"This could be part of a natural oscillation of El Niño," he said. "Or it could be El Niño's response to a warming atmosphere. There are hints that the trade winds of the Pacific have become weaker with time and this may lead to the warming occurring further to the west. We need more data before we know for sure."

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-07/giot-nto062909.php

I see I am going to have to make time to read the full article.

Quoting GetReal:


Happy 4th of July!!!

Backatcha!

The original star spangled banner (not to necessarily be confused with 1776, though):

Pulled the NRL SST Anomaly plot. Not sure what the baseline is for the anomaly, but that source seemed to have way too much negative anomaly in the southern GoM when compared to a number of other sources.

Added the ECMWF graphics link...thanks to futuremet for sharing.

David Farragut

From not toooo long ago. I see some maintenance of cold cloud tops.

BTW, to anyone that cares, I am staying away from the main blog and posting here. I will even respond here to queries posted there, should I happen to see them (not real likely).
Anyone is welcome to join in, but I will not be extending much latitude for the foolishness.

Quoting weathersp:
Coriolis effect?

Kind of misleading plot. Coriolis is stronger the farther from the equator. One might think that this plot is saying it is stronger near the eq.

Not that this is huge surprise to the regular TC folks, but the faster 99 L were to spin up into something, the earlier it goes N.
Look at the differences between BAMS, BAMM, BAMD.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

Quoting iceman55:
hey nice page

Thanks. Just wanted a single place to have all of my favs and of course anyone else is entirely welcome to 'em.

Cheers.

Quoting midgulfmom:
WOW! Impressive. I checked out your site because I was told that you answered a question about a storm possibly breaking into two storms but couldn't the answer you posted here. I still have dial up (:P) so it took a while to load and I see why. You've got everything and more. Will return. Thanks for all the work and more importantly sharing it! BTW cam one storm become 2?....

Thanks!
I've been here on dial-up before. Takes more patience that I'll have before I retire.
2 tropical storms from one? Technically, maybe possible. I seriously doubt we will ever see it happen.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Very good selection of links!

Thanks.

Myself, above:
"opverlay"
Guess I was trying to spell overlay...

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Very good selection of links! Well done moag :)

LOL. moag. Thanks hahu.