What would you expect on July in North Atlantic
I am creating this blog to post what a normal July can bring to the tropics in the North Atlantic Basin. Let's see what occurs in July 2012.
Formation areas/storm tracks
Compared to June, named storms spread out into more real estate in July.
The Gulf of Mexico remains relatively active in July, though the western Caribbean Sea steps down a bit. Of course, storms that do form in the Gulf have "no way out", meaning they must make landfall somewhere along the U.S. or Mexican Gulf Coast.
TWC Hurricane Specialist, Bryan Norcross (Become a fan on Facebook) says two factors limit the number of July Atlantic tropical cyclones.
"Cold fronts, one of the 'seeds' of a tropical cyclone, are much less likely to reach the tropics in July vs. June. At the same time, water temperatures have not yet reached their peak."
Development can also occur from north of Puerto Rico to the Bahamas to Bermuda. The typical track would take most of these tropical cyclones away from the East Coast of the U.S., but remember, that's just an "average". At times, these storms can linger off the East Coast, churning up high surf leading to beach erosion and rip currents.
An area that "emerges", if you will, in July is near the Windward Islands, as tropical waves originating in Africa may begin to develop, in earnest.
"The tropical waves coming off of western Africa every 2-4 days are a little better defined than in June, says TWC Hurricane Expert, Dr. Rick Knabb. "That's one reason why we start to look farther east for development in July."
That said, the primary season for long-track tropical cyclones from the eastern Atlantic, known as "Cape Verde" storms, is in August and September."