MSWx's Tropical and Local Corner
Northwest Caribbean Development June 1-7
Posted by: MississippiWx, 02:42 AM GMT on Maj 25, 2013 +10
We've all been discussing for a few weeks the Northwest Caribbean and the possibilities of development there. From what I've seen on the models and the predicted pattern, things are still lined up for potential development there during the first week of June. We often forget to not let a few model runs, especially operational runs, change our minds on the possibility of development. In the long range, models are going to waffle on certain ideas, but anywhere you can find consistency is the place to start. The consistency that we can find is in the ensembles, particularly the ensembles from the GFS. The GFS ensembles are fairly consistent on a large area of low pressure developing in the NW Caribbean and moving into at least the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Track is obviously not even worth considering at this point, so we'll move on from that subject. Here is the 18z GFS ensemble image from today:

18z GFS Ensemble


Two things stand out to me. The first thing is that when the ensembles show a 1005mb low pressure area in the NW Caribbean this far in advance and they are consistent with it, we should probably pay attention. The second thing I noticed is the hour that it's showing it. Sure, 252 hours is still 10 days out, but it's moving up the time frame now. This is something we've been waiting on to happen.

The GFS ensembles are not alone either. The ECMWF operation has been hinting at the monsoon circulation moving north into the NW Caribbean. The ensembles from the 12z run show this is as well, but just a little farther west centered over the Yucatan.

12 ECMWF Ensembles


The last thing that really makes me respect this possibility is that we do have analogues from previous years when something like this occurred in the NW Caribbean. The first week of June in 2005 produced Tropical Depression 1 and eventually Tropical Storm Arlene from a similar setup to what we should have starting next week in the NW Caribbean. When we look at the 500mb composite analogs from the GFS, June 3, 2005, as well as June 11, 2005 show up as two of the top analogs for the predicted 500mb pattern in 8-10 days. To me, this throws up another red flag saying that we should be looking in this part of the basin for development. Here is the predicted 500mb composite analog map from the GFS:



The biggest limiting factors for development should be consolidation, MJO movement and possibly shear eventually. It often takes a while for monsoonal circulations to consolidate into an area of low pressure that can develop into a tropical cyclone and there is always the possibility that it runs out of time before everything is stopped by land interaction or other obstacles. The movement of the MJO will also be big as half the models skip the Caribbean while the other half the bring the MJO into the Caribbean. One of the models that takes the MJO away from the Caribbean is the ECMWF, but the ensembles still show the monsoonal circulation acting up. Therefore, even if the strongest pulse of the MJO misses the Caribbean, it might not even matter.

I don't see shear being a detriment to development of a tropical cyclone. However, it could be a problem once (if) the possible tropical cyclone moves out of the NW Caribbean. Monsoonal circulations often produce enough latent heat to at least have an ULAC associated with them for a little while.

With all of that said, nothing is a guarantee (obviously), but I still believe that we could have a tropical cyclone develop from this mess eventually. My advice is to let the models flip flop and let us be more patient.

I hope I made at least a little bit of sense and that you enjoyed reading. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts! Have a great Memorial Day weekend.

-MSWx

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Categories:Hurricane Tropical Weather Caribbean
Updated: 07:30 PM GMT on Maj 26, 2013   Permalink | A A A
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Tropical Depression 5 Aimed at the Lesser Antilles
Posted by: MississippiWx, 07:06 AM GMT on August 02, 2012 +10
Well, I had a lot of thoughts I wanted to share about TD5, so I'm making a blog for the first time in a year or so. I'll probably be a little rusty, but I digress.Thursday, August 2, 2012Current ConditionsTropical Depression 5 is moving swiftly to the WNW at an estimated motion of 16kts and is currently on a beeline for the Central and Southern parts of the island chain. The current depiction of TD5 on satellite is very poor and resembles an open wave more than a tr...
Categories:Hurricane
Updated: 08:10 AM GMT on August 02, 2012   Permalink | A A A
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T.D. 12 forms, Gulf of Mexico development possible mid-week
Posted by: MississippiWx, 10:32 PM GMT on August 29, 2011 +4
SynopsisTropical Depression 12 formed early this morning in the Eastern Atlantic from the African wave that had been tagged 92L the past couple of days. It is the main feature in the Eastern half of the Atlantic. The Western Atlantic is very active convection-wise today. The convection is being aided by a lingering boundary left behind by Irene, a surface trough of low pressure moving across the Western Caribbean, and an upper level low pressure system near Puerto R...
Categories:Hurricane
Updated: 10:38 PM GMT on August 29, 2011   Permalink | A A A
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Irene is gone, focus turns to 92L
Posted by: MississippiWx, 03:53 AM GMT on August 29, 2011 +6
It has been a long time since I have done a blog entry, so I thought I would give it a shot!Atlantic Wide View Infrared:SynopsisWhat's left of Irene is now moving through Southeast Canada and should continue to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone. In the Gulf of Mexico, northwest flow aloft prevails due to the 4-Corners States' ridge (i.e. Texas Death Ridge) and the presence of a large trough over the Eastern United States induced by Irene's circulation. The C...
Categories:Hurricane
Updated: 04:02 AM GMT on August 29, 2011   Permalink | A A A
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Temporary Blog: Escape from the trolls on the main blog!
Posted by: MississippiWx, 12:30 AM GMT on August 17, 2011 +3
Discuss the tropics here until the main blog clears!
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I'm from Hattiesburg, MS and I experienced the worst natural disaster in U.S. history--Hurricane Katrina!

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