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Two West Pacific Storms

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 10:21 PM GMT on Juli 29, 2012

The West Pacific remains active tonight, as two tropical cyclones are churning in the waters of this basin. The stronger of the two is Tropical Storm Saola. Saola is currently located about 425 nautical miles SSE of Taipei, Taiwan, and is moving NW at about 7kts according to the latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55kts, or about 65mph.

Forecast for Saola
Saola is in a very moist environment and over warm waters and in an environment of fairly light shear. Because of this, continued strengthening is forecast. The JTWC intensity forecasts have progressively become more aggressive, and they now forecast a peak intensity of 100kts (115mph), making Saola a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Scale. After this, weakening is forecast as Saola will likely interact with the mountainous island nation of Taiwan. It will also move into less favorable atmospheric conditions. My personal intensity forecast is a bit less aggressive than that of the JTWC, as I think the system will peak around 90-95kts due to an increase in shear just before the forecasted peak intensity near Taiwan.

Figure 1: Tropical Storm Saola.

The JTWC has been consistently moving the forecast track farther right than the first advisory showed, as the new track indicated Saola may only graze the northern part of the island, while earlier forecasts indicated a strike near the center of the country. Saola is being steered NW to NNW by a subtropical ridge, and this motion should continue for much of the storm's life. Several of the models are in good agreement on the track towards northern Taiwan, so that is where I think the storm will go. A less likely scenario is depicted by the GFS and NOGAPS, as they favor a track farther to the east. This is likely because they are showing Saola interacting with Tropical Storm Damrey. This is unlikely, however, so this scenario can be mostly ruled out. After its brush with Taiwan a weakening Saola will likely track NW into China.

Figure 2: Official JTWC forecast track for Saola.

Saola has the potential to cause significant problems on Taiwan. One unique aspect of this system is its massive size. This will of course allow it to deposit a lot of rain on any areas it targets, so flooding and flash flooding will be a big concern. Mudslides will also be a big threat since Taiwan is very mountainous. Storm surge will also be a threat since a big system like Saola can push a lot of water in front of it. Everyone there should closely monitor the situation in the coming days as a lot can change.

Damrey Slowly Organizing
Also in the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Damrey has been slowly getting its act together today. As of the latest JTWC warning, Damrey is located about 200 nautical miles ENE of Iwo-To, Japan, and is moving WSW at 4kts. Maximum 1 minute sustained winds are estimated at 40kts (45mph) by the JTWC.

Forecast for Damrey
Damrey is in an environment that is marginally conducive for additional strengthening. Figure 3 shows a good deal of dry air surrounding the system.

Figure 3: Water vapor image of Damrey.

Conditions are not expected to become extremely favorable, but the JTWC does forecast slow but steady strengthening with a peak of 55kts (65mph) in about 3 days. I, however, am skeptical of much strengthening at all, as the systems satellite presentation has not improved and, if anything, has gotten worse today. I will forecast only slight strengthening to 45 or 50kts. Damrey's WSW motion should stop soon, and it should begin a more WNW to NW motion as the subtropical ridge becomes the main steering factor. It will begin to accelerate some in about 3 days and make landfall in China in about 4 days. The main threat will be flooding rains.

Watching the Atlantic
While it is fairly calm now and has been much of this month, all eyes will likely fall on the Atlantic in a few days. A tropical wave is being developed by multiple models, most notably the GFS and CMC. While model consistency has been a problem, it is beginning to improve, so there is a real chance we will see development within the next week. Right now it doesn't look like a major storm, but anything is possible with these waves. Track is also uncertain, but I would like to be more confident that we will actually see development before I speculate more on this potential storm.

Thank you for reading, and have a great week!

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1. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:31 PM GMT on Juli 29, 2012
Thanks for the blog. I disagree that the two will not affect each other, however. Saola is a huge storm and will only grow larger it looks like. Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

2. MAweatherboy1 10:33 PM GMT on Juli 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Thanks for the blog. I disagree that the two will not affect each other, however. It's gonna be close... You may end up being right since Saola is so big... They may interact even without getting that close to each other. Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6366

3. Civicane49 10:36 PM GMT on Juli 29, 2012
Thanks for the update. Member Since: Juli 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3897

4. wxchaser97 12:06 AM GMT on Juli 30, 2012
Thanks, nice blog. Member Since: Marts 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6802

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