Quiet in the tropics; major severe weather outbreak in the U.S.
A low pressure system (99L) over the Gulf of Mexico has moved ashore this morning near the Texas/Louisiana border. Lake Charles, LA long-range radar shows some heavy rain showers are moving ashore, but flooding problems are not expected.
A low pressure system has developed along the coast of Southeast Florida this morning. Long range radar out of Melbourne shows a little bit of organized banding of the associated rain showers. However, this system is headed northeastward out to sea. Wind shear is 20-30 knots over the low, and will increase, so development into a tropical depression is not expected.
Severe weather outbreak today and Thursday
A major severe weather outbreak is likely today over the Midwestern U.S., due to an intensifying low pressure system that is drawing in plenty of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (thanks in part to tropical disturbance 99L). Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches have already been posted, and today's severe weather has the potential to generate strong, long-track tornadoes. The activity shifts to Chicago and the Great Lakes region tomorrow. Follow the action on our new interactive tornado map, which will post the tornado damage reports as they are received. The new feature also allows one to plot all the historical tornado activity back to 1950 for any region in the U.S.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Dakster, NOT on the 'dirty side' ANYWAY :)
i was really looking at 50W although the one at 35W is beginning to flare up
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.
These are really your thoughts....Don't think i would want you living anywhere close to me!!
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
...TN VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...
THIS ALONG WITH STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT FROM THE SW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH...WRN
TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
What are anyones thoughts on the Moderate Risk area today? Looks like their talking 70mph winds possibly with tornado's. Wondering what the likelyhood is of that occurring? I have alot of family in Northern Indiana. Any input is greatly appreciated.
Mother lives in Southern Indiana.....got a radar fixed over her house........lol
Beell? MLCAPE? I get the joules/kilo part.
Heard about the two people killed in the Trailor, very tragic indeed!
Hopefully we will have no more loss of life with twisters today!
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.
LOOK at message 947 from Eyewall911....Makes no sence or reasoning to make statement like that.
Thanks, StormW and Beell
Dynamics higher north yesterday.
Hi-CAPE/Low Shear, Low Helicity = Tornado
Lo-CAPE/Hi Shear, Hi Helicity = Tornado
Anything in between = Tornado
947. Eyewall911 7:05 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.
LOOK at message 947 from Eyewall911....Makes no sence or reasoning to make statement like that.
good morning,
Tampa,the usual troll comment to stir the pot.
Most Unstable Layer
Might as well throw that one out there to.
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