Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

What's the latest rain forcast for Atlanta?
Thank

Are you in Enterprise, Michfan. I'm there once a month on business, I live in Mobile, but I've seen some of the devastation. Not cool and our prayers are always with ya.

1910 ENTERPRISE COFFEE AL 3131 8585 *** 9 FATAL *** 8 KILLED IN SCHOOL WHEN CONCRETE WALL COLLAPSED IN HALLWAY. TORNADO PATH APPROX. 200 YARDS WIDE AND 10 MILES LONG. INFO BASED ON STORM SURVEY BY WCM ON (TAE)

In case anyone needs a frame of reference for what im talking about.

vortex signature heading to Wisc.

Im stationed at Fort Rucker Alabama.

cool, thank you for your service. Having spent almost 10 years in the Air Force,(civillian now) I know it's not easy. Keep up the good work. My job has taken me to Fr Rucker a few times. It's always weird goin to a military installation and being on the outside lookin in knowing you used to wear that uniform..

Link

Here's Thursdays forecast for Atlanta, GA...looks like rain...

Yeah i just hit my 10 year mark. 10 more to go.

cool, keep it up... I'm outta here, have a good night

I'm outta here, too...my heart goes out to you who are watching this stuff from your town's radars...even the threat of tornadoes make for sleepless nights. night tornadoes must be terrifying!
anyways, good night and good luck!

Thanks, all for watching, posting the severe weather outbreak. Not over yet!

I'm tired! Have a good sleep, all!

MLC<---------------out for some shut-eye!

nite cowboy

The swirl of Cape Canaveral has been tagged invest by NOAA & put on Floater 1.

914. Skyepony 11:23 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
The swirl of Cape Canaveral has been tagged invest by NOAA & put on Floater 1.

It appears to be moving SE.

Possible tornado E. of Memphis.

I don't see no Lantic Invests on no NRL! Where is the elusive Invest please? I know you say it's off East coast Florida....but someone please show me some Sat proof and an invest #.

I don't ever want to see a tornado in my life, but I definitely don't want to see one at nighttime. I would much prefer severe weather to hit during the day where you can actually see what's going on and take necessary precautions.

Hope everyone stays safe.

Arkansas has several mesocyclones that recently formed. Some headed toward Little Rock.

That invest has been kinda wandering the last 6 hrs or so.

Nice spot, Skyepony! TS, the se movement is probably the tops getting blown off, reckon? Sitting closer to still! If shear rests, more development possible, but that front is coming across the CONUS, too, so it'd likely go fishing! Fiesty lookin' lil booger, though!

Here ya go, UYA. Link

UYA~ I left the link to the floater it's on. Here's the NOAA tropical page. It has no number since it has only been tagged by NOAA, like I said.

I know there's a surface low out my backdoor...but I don't see no Lantic Invest number on the old NRL yet.

OK....Thanks Skye. So, it's just an un-official floater committed type non-Invest!
I get it now.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 40 MILES EAST
OF CAPE CANAVERAL. IT HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE NW IN THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS SE OF THE CENTER...WELL
OFFSHORE. EXCEPT FOR BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWER(S) TO THE VOLUSIA AND
NORTH BREVARD COAST...EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL OVER
LAND. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWARD MOTION AND BE JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS BY DAYBREAK.

KELLY

supeior hurr. west wind tomorrow nov gales come early

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Distubance Summary (0300z 18Oct)
=========================================
An area of convection (90W) persisted near 17.9N 149.0E or 250 NM northeast of Saipan. This relocation is warrented as the initial disturbance dissipated and a secondary circulation has consolidated east of the northern Mariana Islands. 2131z SSMI Image depicts this organizing circulation, with gradient-enhanced flow to the north and east, and limited weak westerly flow south and west of the developing center. A partial Quikscat Pass confirms the gradient-enhanced flow (25 knots from the southeast) in the northeastern quadrant of the system. Upper level subtropical ridge is reorienting, and wind shear values are expected to decrease as the disturbance moves under the ridge axis within the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb. Given the improving upper level environment and consolidating low level circulation, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now upgraded to FAIR.

The area around 73w just north of SA has a nice anti-cyclone, low shear, some clouds and a little low pressure (1007 mb) emerging off the SA coast. A little spot of higher zonal shear out in front of it, and may be too close to the ull in the nw Caribbean.


850 mb vorticity

Good morning folks. Can anyone tell me how Patrap is? Also, how close to normal is Lake Okeechobee?

Michfan, you scared the heck outa me til I saw the date on the tornado map.lol

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MO/AR/SRN IL/WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 713...714...

VALID 180356Z - 180500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 713...714...CONTINUES.

NEW WW/S WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF MO AND AR EXTENDING INTO SRN
IL/ WRN KY AS ONGOING AND NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS MO/AR
AND SPREADS ENEWD OVERNIGHT. THESE NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY REPLACE ALL
OR PARTS OF WW/S 713 AND 714.

STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
REGIONS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOW LCLS EXTENDING NWD
INTO MO/IL/ WRN KY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AS BASE OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 80-90 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH ATTENDANT
TORNADO THREAT.

ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SQUALL LINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO
INTO NWRN AR...WITH RECENT STRONG WIND GUST REPORTS IN SWRN
MO...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE. FARTHER
S...DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2007

There is a lot of moisture moving around on the WV loop.

Link

Around Peoria, Il...Storms tonight not nearly as bad as they looked...rain in most areas of less then .4 inches... Had wind in the 30 mph range earlier..

We will get the heavy stuff tomorrow morning and afternoon...

Tornado Watch 717

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/MUCH OF MS/MO BOOTHEEL/WESTERN
TN/WESTERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 715...

VALID 180527Z - 180700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 715 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 715. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO THE
SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION...MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL
AND PERHAPS WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN KY.

UPSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 715...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCING CHANNEL OF
ASCENT...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AR...AS FAR EAST AS THE LITTLE ROCK VICINITY AS OF 05Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED -- GENERALLY AROUND 500-750 J/KG MLCAPE -- VERY STRONG FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL AND POTENTIALLY
WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY/NORTHERN MS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
400 M2/S2...FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.

FARTHER SOUTH...A RELATIVE LULL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF MS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
VEERING FLOW ALOFT/LIMITED MASS CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTH
EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN MS.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2007

Is it me, or is that ULL in the WCar trying to add some moisture near its COC????

Link

Just looks like an ULL in the Carib trying to add some moisture.

There's no shortage of mid-level moisture....but switch on the infrared loop and there's not much to see.

Baha....It seems to be doing so...We will just have to wait and see what it does over the weekend...Also i believe the NHC has just declared that area of low pressure east of Florida Invest 90L.

catl wave looks quite interesting this morning.
wind shear is now 10 knots needs watching




Link

StormW Morning
catl looking good this morning. what you think?

Morning, everybody.

Doesn't look like much is happening out there at the moment. The Twave in the Car is barely visible, and the one in the CATL has showers only over the ITCZ at this time. The Car ULL looks to be moving into the GoM.

Hopefully the US weather will quiet down.

Good Morning All

Good Morning Halifax, Nova Scotia

Current Conditions:

Scattered Cloudiness
Temperature of 5C
Winds from the WNW at 2.6 m/s
Pressure down to 1014 HPA

Webcam Image

Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.

TO the person who asked about Lake Okeechobee. It is at 10.05 Feet, still around 4 feet below normal. However, even if we were to get enough rain to rbing it up, SFWMD and the Army Corp. of Engineers has advised they will drain it as there is a fear the levies will not hold. This was in the Miami Herald a week ago.

I hope it is a quiet day for Tornado's in the S. I have been in and around several Tornado's in Arkansas... I'd rather go thru a Hurricane.

Morning Storm...morning all.

Morning folks......

Dakster, NOT on the 'dirty side' ANYWAY :)