Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait
Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.
Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.
Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.
New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.
Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.
Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Cyclonic turning can be seen at:
25.1N/ 76.7W per the RGB floater loop here: Link
So I would say that now it DOES have a surface low.
Thats a big difference from the past two days when it was an open trough of low pressure. We will have to see what NHC says about this later tonight but I can definetly see the turning in there on the visible loop.
I sort of doubt its going to survive transit over Florida however. But we will see.
#2 supercedes #1. Right now, if Ernesto was a cat 2, it would be more exciting. But for most of the FL bloggers (who don't have a majority, but they definitely are the most vocal), the prospect of any storm near them is more exciting than something 3-4 days away.
From Dr. M's entry this morning.
The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.
You are very correct. We should be focused on it. Not that it will even be a TS or a hurricane. These types of systems can drop potentially dangerous amounts of rain causing heavy flooding. I don't care about any wind. As we all know, depressions and TS can drop more rain than a hurricane. We have dealt with many of these that form very quickly without warning. Since I am 5 feet below sea level where I am, I am not too worried, since I am 6'1".
L. Eye Character: Open, Open North
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical miles
Invest90
Early Model Wind Forecasts
The center I see is just east of Andros Island. NHC has it to the NW of Andros island. 850 vort doesn't match the NHC's low center.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 031859
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY)
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
NORTHEAST JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS WITH MOST
OF THE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE REMAINING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS...INCLUDING OUR ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS SURFACE
TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND GENERALLY INDICATES IT
CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY AS A WEAK LOW. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ADJUST
THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THIS PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND FROM
WHAT WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND INDICATES THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND ADVANCING NW AND MOVING
ASHORE ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WE WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND GENERALLY SHOW IT CONTINUING
WEST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
sfc low seen at 25N/77W, stationary
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
Just stay calm and relax. REMEMBER RELAX!!!!!! RELAX!!!!!!!!!!!!
(FaCepalm)
An embryo existed last night when it was NW of Barbados but that is long gone based on microwave imagery and earlier radar out of the Antilles.
Think he means it's structure.
Believe he is refering to Dr. Master's blog comment above: " The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall."
thanks
Yeppers...Link
91L is looking very impressive...
It does appear he has a big set of cajones. Everyone calling him DOA and clinging to life yesterday and now he look's ok to pretty good considering the environment he is in.
:) Hey.. hey.. hey...
If a Hurricane was threatening you, i would be on here trying to give you information.
Please don't let JFV and a few silly others ruin the image of us "Florida" bloggers.
By the way, 91L is interesting and exciting, It has the same feeling of when Humberto was off the Texas coast.
I know; 1 degree difference between it and the air temps......Makes little sense to jump in off the boat to cool off...........
"possible" hurricane, big difference...
i hop you injoy the 24hr bannd wounder blog admin give you so i would re move it
While the partial eyewall did exist, due to the pulsing nature of the thunderstorms over and around Ernesto's center, I feel like it was probably a more of a transient feature than a permanent fixture at that time.
I have to say I totally understand the focus on 91L
Earlier today it was still an open trough for the most part but that has changed in the past 8 hours.
Additionally its much closer to land then Ernesto, and it will also almost certainly play a role in the track of Ernesto.
And I just realized, the "shear" is actually ideally place. The flow from the ULL to the north of the circulation of 91L seems to be enhancing its outflow right now.
No, think he meant eyewall - just as dr. Master's mentions it above in his blog as well: "The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall."
I agree that it fell apart when that microwave image was taken. However, it could be rebuilding one now as convection keeps rebuilding over the center. Recon will be interesting.
I know that the overwhelming majority of FL bloggers are sensible, and really don't want anyone to experience a hurricane - and would help however they can. That said, those bloggers only account for about 20% of the posts from FL.
I love these kind of storms. Beautiful to behold.
I see it, looks like it's organizing.
Patrap, can i have a fresca, or perhaps a Beer?
03/1745 UTC 13.9N 63.2W T2.5/2.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic
is that a pic of cantore when he was young???
Im water DuDe but smooth as the Heat took me for a spin Weds.
Water, water. wattttter...
Um ive been at work all day but ive noticed some pressure falls near the vicinity the past few hrs. Its very close to SFL already so if this wave wants to do something it better not waster anytime. Regardless it should make for an interesting and wet weekend in Miami.
If this continues to improve its structure it will have its chances raised significantly at the next advisory time.
Its got good ventilation at the upper levels courtesy of the ULL and now it has a surface low evident in visible imagery.
This i can agree with, at the moment all three systems are strengthing and are extremely interesting.
Obviously Ernesto and 91L are of most importance atm.
But 90L could make Puerto Rico very nervous in the coming week.
Viewing: 1751 - 1801
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