Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting beell:


Amazing how calm and rain-free it is for a hurricane approach. Unbelieveable!

hurricanes are like horses they each have there own personality.....

Quoting yoboi:


i don't think the intercoastal is deeper than 75 feet it's like taking water temps out a swimming pool if ya had alot of fresh water rain it would drop quick if not much rain it would read hot; plus ya would have to compare tug traffic over the yrs because they churn up water in the intercoastal lot of varables

Most of the ICW is between 25 and 40 feet here. There is ONE intersection that is 70 feet for a couple of hundred yards. My hummingbird said it was 86 all the way down. I went there just to see. I know the ICW is not like an ocean but it is alot of water and at 86-87 it felt very good to swim in! The gulf stream is 40 miles offshore here. I dont think the icw water makes it out more than a mile or two.

Quoting Tazmanian:




now now you no the rulse on that

lol i know taz had to poke a little fun in things...

Sea Ice volume..free falling...

Derived from the 7July12amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneDaniel:

Its vector* had changed from 11.2mph(18km/h) West to 10.1mph(16.3km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had increased from 60knots(69mph)111km/h to 65knots(75mph)120km/h
And minimum pressure decreased from 993millibars to 988millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego :: CSL is CaboSanLucas

Easternmost half-dot on the kinked line is where TropicalDepression 4E became TS.Daniel
Westernmost dot on the kinked line is Daniel's final position as a TropicalStorm
Easternmost dot on the longest line is where TS.Daniel became H.Daniel & its most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii
6July6amGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 268miles(431kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Southern half of the end-blob on the longest line)
6July12pmGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 551miles(887kilometres) South of Hawaii*
(SSEastern half of the unconnected blob)
6July6pmGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 536miles(863kilometres) South of Hawaii
(NNWestern half of the unconnected blob)
7July12amGMT: H.Daniel was headed toward passing 247miles(397kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Northern half of the end-blob on the longest line) in ~10days14hours from now

Copy&paste hi25, 15.0271n155.346w, 11.007n154.323w, 11.212n154.394w, san, 9n157w, csl, 13.8n109.0w- 14.0n110.0w- 14.1n111.2w- 14.3n112.6w- 14.4n113.5w- 14.4n114.5w- 14.4n115.5w, 14.4n115.5w-14.5n116.4w, 14.4n115.5w-15.333n155.418w, 18.911n155.681w-15.333n155.418w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison

Quoting Autistic2:


Most of the ICW is between 25 and 40 feet here. There is ONE intersection that is 70 feet for a couple of hundred yards. My hummingbird said it was 86 all the way down. I went there just to see. I know the ICW is not like an ocean but it is alot of water and at 86-87 it felt very good to swim in! The gulf stream is 40 miles offshore here. I dont think the icw water makes it out more than a mile or two.

where it was 86-87 is there a crossing for deep water draft ships is it close to some locks??

Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the insane flood in India..

A central team is arriving in Assam to assess the damage from the recent floods that have killed at least 100 people besides rendering around 20 lakh (2 million) others homeless. "The central team will come to the state for detailed assessment after the state submits a full-fledged memorandum to the central government on the total damage caused by floods in Assam," a senior revenue department official told IANS. The floods, since June 22, have affected all districts of the state and submerged huge tracts of land, including crop land. However, relief camps have been able to shelter only three lakh (300,000) people; the rest of them have been forced to live on the highways with no food, no toilets and no shelter. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress party president Sonia Gandhi made an aerial survey of flood affected areas Monday, and also announced an immediate relief package of Rs.500 crore. The Prime Minister had assured more financial help after a complete assessment to be conducted by a central team. more here

Altogether 538 animals, including 13 rhinos, of the Kaziranga National Park, have been killed in the devastating Assam floods and the death toll is mounting with the KNP authorities of this World Heritage Site recovering more floating carcasses everyday. The floods have also damaged roads and other infrastructure in the park, which is famous for the one-horned rhino. Even amidst the floods, two rhinos were killed by poachers. The floods have claimed 100 human lives, while 16 others died due to landslip in the State. Of these, 56 are children. Of the 31 lives lost in Barpeta district, 21 were children. KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora told The Hindu that till Thursday afternoon carcasses of 463 hog deer, 13 rhinos, 16 Sambar, 10 swamp deer, 28 wild boars, 5 porcupines, one wild buffalo and two hog badgers had been recovered. more here

My thoughts and prayers to those effected. I'm very impressed with KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora's ability to keep track of the local animal population.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


are you involved in any research anymore?
if so what?

My current active development & research would probably best be described as modeling/programming/mapping in areas of flash flooding & extreme precipitation events. This development/research focus would be on operational improvements, to be specific (as opposed to purely theoretical).

Quoting ScottLincoln:

I have a masters in Environmental Science and continue to keep up with climate science issues fairly regularly... although not as much of an expert as an PhD-ed, actively-publishing climate scientist, you don't have to remind me of the reality or implications of Arctic sea ice loss. :)

One thing you never hear people talk about is permanent water lock-up, as you would find in the more modern plumbing of new houses and apartments and high-rises in say, China or India, or the A/Cs they're now running that convert otherwise precipitable moisture into condensation drips, or even the physical bodies of new people.

Once that water is locked out of the cycle, how does one replace it?

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


God It looks like Daniel,must be the clouds in my eyes

lol..GREAT SONG

Quoting Skyepony:
Sea Ice volume..free falling...

Hey Skye...do you think that the ice will fall below the record low set in 2007?

El Nino?





Or just Neutral plus AGW?



What's the difference?

Quoting ScottLincoln:


My current active development & research would probably best be described as modeling/programming/mapping in areas of flash flooding & extreme precipitation events. This development/research focus would be on operational improvements, to be specific (as opposed to purely theoretical).

what's ya range to study?? usa part of usa or beyond?

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA..
SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE AFFECTING ALACHUA...BRADFORD...
COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE AND UNION COUNTIES
SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES AFFECTING COLUMBIA...
GILCHRIST AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...RESIDENTS AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT THREATENED PROPERTY. HIGH AND FAST
FLOWING RIVERS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR RECREATION OF ANY KIND. KEEP
CHILDREN AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH
FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

&&

FLC001-007-023-041-121-125-080108-
/O.CON.KJAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FWHF1.3.ER.120627T2052Z.120701T0500Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 5:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.8 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 26.0 FEET
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...DAMAGE TO HOMES AT LOW ELEVATION AS WELL AS
BASEMENT AREAS UNDERNEATH HOMES ON STILTS IS LIKELY.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MINOR DAMAGE TO DWELLINGS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
BOAT WASH.

&&


FLD OBSERVED 7AM FORECAST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SAT SUN MON TUE WED

SANTA FE
FORT WHITE 24.0 26.8 FRI 05 PM 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.5



$$

looks like 97E is not moveing at all

Quoting CosmicEvents:
My thoughts and prayers to those effected. I'm very impressed with KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora's ability to keep track of the local animal population.

I think the preserve is a major tourist draw.

The original reports had over 2000 villages wiped. It was described as unprecedented. Didn't sound like the normal monsoons.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


My current active development & research would probably best be described as modeling/programming/mapping in areas of flash flooding & extreme precipitation events. This development/research focus would be on operational improvements, to be specific (as opposed to purely theoretical).

when studying flooding events do ya consider soil conditions prior to rain event ??? terrain? elevation?
tidal events??? just curious what's involved

Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like 97E is not moveing at all

almost looked like in took one jog to the south and a jog to the west crazy....

Deleted

Quoting Skyepony:


I think the preserve is a major tourist draw.

The original reports had over 2000 villages wiped. It was described as unprecedented. Didn't sound like the normal monsoons.

cell service in impacted area's is not that great in india they depend alot on cell service for weather people there will have a cell phone over a tv it's a little differ there but it's a nice place to visit, when i was there most news is shared by someone with a cell phone did not see that many tv's there....

Quoting RTSplayer:
El Nino?





Or just Neutral plus AGW?



What's the difference?

There seems to be a bit of cooling in the equatorial pacific between 110W and 70W.

Quoting Civicane49:

Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...

Quoting nigel20:

There seems to be a bit of cooling in the equatorial pacific between 110W and 70W.

Edit...That should have been 80W.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The Scale of the Universe 2

That was one of the coolest things I've ever seen, Georgia... good stuff!

Quoting Skyepony:


I think the preserve is a major tourist draw.

The original reports had over 2000 villages wiped. It was described as unprecedented. Didn't sound like the normal monsoons.

Hey, skye. Looks like it's a match for the excessive heat and dryness, yet again, over Russia.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...

Funerals suck. Were you close to this person?

Quoting RTSplayer:
El Nino?





Or just Neutral plus AGW?



What's the difference?

What's the SOI? That's based on atmospheric pressures. With El Nino the tradewinds should lessen.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...

Hopefully you'll be able to attend with little or no interruption!

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I had a sister-in-law that lived in Brownwood when Alicia hit. They ended up on the roof of the house when the levy over topped and flooded Brownwood. Shortly after this the home owners were bought out and the area turned into a reserve, as you have stated.

I have been through Alicia, Allison, Rita and Ike. Rita actually hit east of me, but Rita took my roof. ... How many of these have been retired? ;-)

i know 3 out of the 4 storms been retired not sure if all 4 have been

Quoting yoboi:


i know 3 out of the 4 storms been retired not sure if all 4 have been

All four have been.

Quoting bappit:

What's the SOI? That's based on atmospheric pressures. With El Nino the tradewinds should lessen.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. Traditionally, this index has been calculated based on the differences in air pressure anomaly between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative SOI values coincide with abnormally warm ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño episodes. Prolonged periods of positive SOI values coincide with abnormally cold ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of La Niña episodes.

Quoting nigel20:

Hey Skye...do you think that the ice will fall below the record low set in 2007?

Volume is far below the peak melt for that year plus sea ice extent is less at this time of year than it was in 2007, the weather pattern right now is overall bad for the ice..I'd say chances are good the record will once again be broken this year.

Quoting KoritheMan:


All four have been.

what yr was alicia that one i did not know was it in the middle 80's??? i kinda recall that storm i was working in la porte/ baytown by houston and i think that was alicia

Post#: 633
Thanks for the info, Skye.

Quoting yoboi:


what's ya range to study?? usa part of usa or beyond?

Typically the south central US as that is the area of responsibility for my office. Sometimes I've done work a bit beyond that and cover a good chunk of the central CONUS.

Quoting yoboi:


when studying flooding events do ya consider soil conditions prior to rain event ??? terrain? elevation?
tidal events??? just curious what's involved

Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, and sometimes. For flash flooding, many times the soil type and land use type are the most important. For general flooding, like longer-duration river flooding, all of those things play a large role.

Quoting Skyepony:


Extent is far below the peak melt for that year plus sea ice extent is less at this time of year than it was in 2007, the weather pattern right now is overall bad for the ice..I'd say chances are good the record will once again be broken this year.

I didn't think records were supposed to be broken every year. Yet that seems to be norm lately. And not just for sea ice.

Jesus.

Quoting RTSplayer:


The Sun is theoretically capable of some insane phenomena under the right conditions, but I doubt what I have in mind has happened in a very long time.

The Sun is believed to have several thousand years worth of it's radiation built up inside of it bouncing around, and that it takes several thousand years on average for the light we "see" to have gotten to the surface and escaped as light.

This begs the question, what if a rogue planet, about the size of the Earth hit the Sun hard enough to penetrate relatively deep into it, so that this insane amount of radiation escaped over a matter of a few seconds to a few minutes?

If it was pointed towards the Earth, it would be truly Biblical.

If you released an entire extra day's worth of energy instantaneously, I suspect it would probably thermolize, vaporize, or vitrify everything on one side of the Earth, as the solar constant would be some unimaginably high number, like 118 megawatts per meter squared...for like one second.

Now that's if just one day's worth of energy was released symetrically over one second.

I'm positive that would incinerate everything on at least half of the planet.

Compared to what the Sun is theoretically capable of, even that would be a mere blip.


Really, even one second's worth of that would probably kill everything on the planet unless it's in the deepest caves in the ocean...

It would be FUBAR

Daniel becomes a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

...DANIEL BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 117.1W
ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Quoting yoboi:


what yr was alicia that one i did not know was it in the middle 80's??? i kinda recall that storm i was working in la porte/ baytown by houston and i think that was alicia

Alicia hit in '83.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't think records were supposed to be broken every year. Yet that seems to be norm lately. And not just for sea ice.

Jesus.

Exactly what to expect when you load the dice, unfortunately.

Quoting LargoFl:
lol..GREAT SONG

INDEED!

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

DANIEL WAS SHOWING HINTS OF AN EYE A FEW HOURS AGO IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY A
RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 75 KT...AND DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A
65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DANIEL IS
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE WHEN DANIEL MOVES FARTHER WEST. THE
NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THE LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

DANIEL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND DANIEL SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING FASTER TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 3 THROUGH
5 WHEN IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. DANIEL
HAS NOT BEEN GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND
THE ECMWF MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST JOB IN
CAPTURING THAT MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.7N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.9N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.2N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 16.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Exactly what to expect when you load the dice, unfortunately.

I also happen to think that's the primary reason the US has gotten so lucky with hurricanes the past couple years. The large-scale pattern has featured a persistent heat ridge over the central US, with a trough downstream over the western Atlantic. This has been the case since 2010, and although we have already had two landfalls this year, that pattern seems to be coming back yet again.

I really don't want to attribute climate change to every single weather event. I really don't. But there is honestly zero explanation for why these whacky and seemingly anomalous events are happening more often now.

Quoting ScottLincoln:

Typically the south central US as that is the area of responsibility for my office. Sometimes I've done work a bit beyond that and cover a good chunk of the central CONUS.

Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, and sometimes. For flash flooding, many times the soil type and land use type are the most important. For general flooding, like longer-duration river flooding, all of those things play a large role.

do ya also figure concrete areas per sq ft yr by yr to figure runoff??? this type of stuff really interest me....

Quoting KoritheMan:


Funerals suck. Were you close to this person?

Cousin-in-law. His kids and I are "in set" as they say here [meaning of a similar age], so I am going to support the family, more so than because we were close.

Quoting nigel20:

Hopefully you'll be able to attend with little or no interruption!

Hey, Nige... is it still raining there?

Quoting BahaHurican:
Cousin-in-law. His kids and I are "in set" as they say here [meaning of a similar age], so I am going to support the family, more so than because we were close.

Ah. Good deal.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Exactly what to expect when you load the dice, unfortunately.

i would like to know how much sq ft of concrete was in houston in 1980 compared to 2012 i know concrete can't ingest water unless the temp was high an evaperation was considered but i would like to know how fast concrete cools down beyond evaperation, 12 inch slap verses a 20 inch slap also i know concrete know is not as strong now as compared to 20 yrs ago due to the fact now they use limestone as gravel softer stone compared to pea gravel back then, retention heat had to be higher back then lot of stuff ya would have to factor

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Nige... is it still raining there?

No, but I'm happy for the relief that we got from the tropical wave.

Quoting RTSplayer:



Currently, the oceans near the poles are sequestering an amount of heat representing a net increase of 0.3C per decade for the average temperature from surface to bottom!

That's right, not just the SST, that's the increase in the Surface-to-bottom average.

The implications of this over the multi-decadal range and into the century range is that at some point, the deep oceans are going to run out of places to store the excess heat, and it will presumably be dumped directly into the ice and atmosphere.

Where on Earth do you get that statistic? Did anybody really say that with a straight face?