Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:34 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012 +26
It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters
July 4th Storm 2 (amy1225)
July 4th Storm 2
double rainbow (carstensv)
Rio Rico, AZ
double rainbow
Categories: Heat
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451. goosegirl1 09:45 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:



clover?


Replace "cover" with "brother" and read it again. Her friend is a guy, too, which explains a lot.
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452. GTcooliebai 09:45 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Almost forgot Frances was a beautiful storm at peak intensity.


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453. Patrap 09:47 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607
454. bohonkweatherman 09:48 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting ClimateChange:
A buoy 30 nautical miles northwest of Cleveland showing a water temperature of 84F this afternoon. Maybe we'll have tropical storms developing off the Great Lakes if this keeps up.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =45005
That is pretty warm for up there, Lake Tavis water temp is currently 88 degrees.
Member Since: Juli 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
455. Tazmanian 09:48 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
06/1800 UTC 14.5N 115.2W T4.0/4.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific
Member Since: Maj 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359
456. weatherh98 09:48 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting goosegirl1:


Replace "cover" with "brother" and read it again. Her friend is a guy, too, which explains a lot.


possibly the funniest thing ive ever heard.
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457. yoboi 09:48 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Boomer's



i heard it was flooding a bit in slidell
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458. Patrap 09:49 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
The GOM,out in the Canyon,,is very deep, very warm.

Depth of 26C Isotherm

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607
459. weatherh98 09:50 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting ClimateChange:
A buoy 30 nautical miles northwest of Cleveland showing a water temperature of 84F this afternoon. Maybe we'll have tropical storms developing off the Great Lakes if this keeps up.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =45005


Link
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460. Patrap 09:50 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
461. yoboi 09:50 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting goosegirl1:


Replace "cover" with "brother" and read it again. Her friend is a guy, too, which explains a lot.


that is funny i better not say what's on my mind ....
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462. weatherh98 09:52 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:


that is funny i better not say what's on my mind ....


we all know now
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463. HurricaneHunterJoe 09:55 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
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464. weatherh98 09:57 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
The GOM,out in the Canyon,,is very deep, very warm.

Depth of 26C Isotherm



I just realized why the coast always has a "blue" color, thats where its not 25 m deep lol
Member Since: Juni 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
465. GPTGUY 10:01 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no its not. It just means that 98F air has 99% of the moisture it can hold.
I dont know exactly where it happens, maybe just after a tstorm in 110 weather next to the ocean.


it doesnt happen anywhere lol...a 98 degree temp with 99% humidity produces a heat index of 179 degrees! where on earth have you heard of a heat index of 179? tell me and then ill agree with you!
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466. aspectre 10:05 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Derived from the 6July6pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDaniel:
14.5n113.5w - 14.7n114.4w has been re-evaluated&altered*
14.4n113.5w - 14.4n114.5w - 14.4n115.5w are now the most recent positions

Its vector* had held steady at 11.2mph(18km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had increased from 55knots(63mph)102km/h to 60knots(69mph)111km/h
And minimum pressure decreased from 995millibars to 993millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego :: CSL is CaboSanLucas

Easternmost half-dot on the connected line-segments is where TD.4E became TS.Daniel
The Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii
6July12amGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 196miles(316kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Northern dot on the unconnected dumbbell)
6July6amGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 268miles(431kilometres) South of Hawaii*
(Southern dot on the unconnected dumbbell)
6July12pmGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 551miles(887kilometres) South of Hawaii*
(SSEastern half of the blob)
6July6pmGMT: TS.Daniel was heading toward passing 536miles(863kilometres) South of Hawaii
(NNWestern half of the blob) in ~9days15hours from now

Copy&paste hi25, 16.0613n155.495w-15.0271n155.346w, 11.007n154.323w, san, 9n157w, csl, 13.8n109.0w-14.0n110.0w, 14.0n110.0w-14.1n111.2w, 14.1n111.2w-14.3n112.6w,14.3n112.6w-14.4n113.5w, 14.4n113.5w-14.4n114.5w,14.4n114.5w-14.4n115.5w, 14.4n114.5w-11.212n154.394w, 18.911n155.681w-11.212n154.394w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison

The previous vector and the 2 previous straightline projections' endpoints have been corrected on this mapping through recalculations using the most recent positions.
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467. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:05 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:00 PM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.88 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 95.4°F
Dewpoint: 58.6°F
Humidity: 30 %
Wind: NW 11 mph
Humidex: 102
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636
468. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:06 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636
469. BahaHurican 10:07 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


What did you call me???
Lol... not you, the EPAC... wants to hog all the precipitation and leave none for the CAR...
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470. HurricaneHunterJoe 10:12 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
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471. Patrap 10:13 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
..Lord I miss Daniel



Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607
472. hydrus 10:14 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Great pics, hydrus. Sorry I couldn't help you out before. Some damage!!!
you have helped a lot..Thank you.:)
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473. redwagon 10:16 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

That Northern blob has acted as a heat eraser all day.... now that it's approaching DC and the ESB maybe it can drop them 10-20o.
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474. Civicane49 10:16 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
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475. Patrap 10:17 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Having those pics keeps the reality of calamity in mind.

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607
476. Patrap 10:18 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Went from 97F to dis..


Weather Station - report

Uptown, New Orleans

Elevation
20 ft

Rain
Temperature
75.0 °F
Feels Like 74 °F

Hee, hee..
You can here a collective..Ahhhhhhh fer miles.
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607
477. hydrus 10:19 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you really live in the thicket...
an F0 near you could be a real problem.
here 60mph winds arent even a worry.
I was looking for"before Pics". Cant find them yet.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314
478. yoboi 10:21 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Went from 97F to dis..


Weather Station - report

Uptown, New Orleans

Elevation
20 ft

Rain
Temperature
75.0 °F
Feels Like 74 °F

Hee, hee..
You can here a collective..Ahhhhhhh fer miles.


the elavation is 20' or 20"????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421
479. hydrus 10:21 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


....is that "The Blob"
.....or perhaps your finger?
My finger was a blob that day.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314
480. Patrap 10:24 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:


the elavation is 20' or 20"????


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607
481. Civicane49 10:29 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
482. yoboi 10:33 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.



oh ok i remember that area during katrina.....
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483. wxmod 10:34 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting TStormSC:


Graph looks good. Using an exponential trend to extrapolate is what I would take issue with. Not knocking the downward trend, but you have to take into account that the abrupt downward extrapolation is where you loose some of those who are willing to listen.


In two months the Arctic sea ice will be at record low volume, lower volume than any year in the last thousand at least. I'm not going to argue about the style of graph. Come back in two months and tell me I'm wrong. The graph is telling you something and you are making excuses for not looking at it.
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484. yoboi 10:37 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.

Quoting Patrap:


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.



i think some of the worst flooding i saw was in st bernard parish...
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485. GeorgiaStormz 10:37 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting GPTGUY:


it doesnt happen anywhere lol...a 98 degree temp with 99% humidity produces a heat index of 179 degrees! where on earth have you heard of a heat index of 179? tell me and then ill agree with you!


hmm, maybe you are right.
I doubt it would happen, but youd never know.
The moisture would have to be introduced unnaturally..
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486. Grothar 10:39 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Lol... not you, the EPAC... wants to hog all the precipitation and leave none for the CAR...


I couldn't let that one go :)
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487. Patrap 10:42 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:


i think some of the worst flooding i saw was in st bernard parish...


Thats pretty near here..we gutted these 3 in Upper 9th Ward in late November on N. Robertson.



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488. Astrometeor 10:43 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
I hate to back up what Hydrus posted earlier in this fashion... but TWC has some pictures from Tennessee of the storms on their weather.com
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489. Grothar 10:45 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
From Hurricane History:


Hurricane of July, 1502--Was a storm that the great explorer and discoverer of American, Christopher Columbus, predicted would strike the island of Hispanola. He used his prediction to warn the Governor of Hispanola, Nicholas de Ovando, who had 30 ships in his fleet set sail back to Spain. However, the governor ignored him, and refused Columbus' request to stay in port at Santo Domingo. Within two days the storm struck in the Mona Passage between Hispanola and Puerto Rico, and sank 21 of the 30 ships, and killed approximately 500 sailors.
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490. Patrap 10:45 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
www.weather.com

Today's Top Headlines
Upper Midwest in Storm Zone Today
Waterspout Swirls Off Panama City
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607
491. yoboi 10:48 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


Thats pretty near here..we gutted these 3 in Upper 9th Ward in late November on N. Robertson.





wow i know we were rescuing alot of people there the drop off point was either at i-10 and causeway and algeris landing 5 days of crazy i spent there have not been back since then...
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492. Patrap 10:52 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:


wow i know we were rescuing alot of people there the drop off point was either at i-10 and causeway and algeris landing 5 days of crazy i spent there have not been back since then...


Causeway and I-10 was the Rally Helo Point.







Vets and 17th Canal One was entry Point to Lakeview,east.

Sandbagging breech




Canal Blvd, I-610




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493. yoboi 10:56 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


Causeway and I-10 was the Rally Helo Point.







Vets and 17th Canal One was entry Point to Lakeview,east.

Sandbagging breech






do ya have anymore pics of i-10 an causeway?
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494. captainmark 10:57 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Most of New Orleans is below sea level so many
of the elevations are listed in Cairo Datum which
applies a positive number instead of a negative one
to avoid confusion. For example, a property may
have its slab elevation listed as 20.03 feet but
still may be 4 feet below sea level. There is a
conversion table to convert but I don't know how
to post it here. Many home owners here do not realize
this.
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495. Patrap 10:58 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:


wow i know we were rescuing alot of people there the drop off point was either at i-10 and causeway and algeris landing 5 days of crazy i spent there have not been back since then...


I want to thank you personally for being there.

Those were trying times for men and Nature as well.
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607
496. yoboi 11:00 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting captainmark:
Most of New Orleans is below sea level so many
of the elevations are listed in Cairo Datum which
applies a positive number instead of a negative one
to avoid confusion. For example, a property may
have its slab elevation listed as 20.03 feet but
still may be 4 feet below sea level. There is a
conversion table to convert but I don't know how
to post it here. Many home owners here do not realize
this.


i did not know that and i live in la
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421
497. Astrometeor 11:00 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
From Hurricane History:


Hurricane of July, 1502--Was a storm that the great explorer and discoverer of American, Christopher Columbus, predicted would strike the island of Hispanola. He used his prediction to warn the Governor of Hispanola, Nicholas de Ovando, who had 30 ships in his fleet set sail back to Spain. However, the governor ignored him, and refused Columbus' request to stay in port at Santo Domingo. Within two days the storm struck in the Mona Passage between Hispanola and Puerto Rico, and sank 21 of the 30 ships, and killed approximately 500 sailors.


Pay attention to what Christopher Columbus says to you. After all, he did discover the New World. So that makes his opinion worth more than that pathetic governor.
Member Since: Juli 2, 2012 Posts: 28 Comments: 1298
498. Tropicsweatherpr 11:01 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
When it forms into Emilia,IMO,it may be the strongest system this EPAC season if it gets great enviromental conditions.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 06 2012

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...


LOW PRESSURE 1006 MB NEAR 09N95W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THUS FAR...THIS HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TOWARD A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS EVENT IN THE EPAC. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO CYCLOGENESIS IN
THIS CASE WOULD BE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ENABLE
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO FURTHER DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE LATEST FORECAST FROM
NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8231
499. yoboi 11:03 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Quoting yoboi:


wow i know we were rescuing alot of people there the drop off point was either at i-10 and causeway and algeris landing 5 days of crazy i spent there have not been back since then...


I want to thank you personally for being there.

Those were trying times for men and Nature as well.


thank you pat, yes it was, then i went back home and had to deal with rita a few weeks later....can't really put into words how 2005 was for la...
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500. Patrap 11:04 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:


do ya have anymore pics of i-10 an causeway?








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501. dolig 11:05 PM GMT on Juli 06, 2012    

appears the GOM is getting warm...

Link
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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