Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

More record-setting heat; Waldo Canyon Fire consumes 15,000 acres
Posted by: Angela Fritz, 07:17 PM GMT on Juni 27, 2012 +36
Tuesday's heat toppled many records in the Central U.S., particularly in Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. On Monday and Tuesday combined, 11 locations tied or broke their all-time record high temperature, 78 locations broke their all-time record high for the month of June, and 382 daily high records fell. Some notable Tuesday records from our Weather Historian:

115° in McCook, Nebraska is the all-time record for any month. The old records for site are 114° 7/20/1932 and for June 112° 6/5/1933—both set in the heat waves of the 1930s. Yesterday's 115° at Mc Cook also broke the all-time Nebraska state June record of 114° which was set in Franklin in 1936.

105° in Denver, Colorado, ties Monday's all-time record, and ties the 5-day record for number of days above 100°.

101° in Colorado Springs, Colorado is the all-time undisputed record high for any month.

111° in Miles City, Montana is the all-time high for any month.

111° in Lamar, Colorado tied that all-time heat record in any month.

115° in Hill City, Kansas is the new June record, but fell short of all-time 117° reading, and one degree short of Kansas state June record.

110° in Dodge City, Kansas ties the all-time high for any month, which was just set last June.

Wheat Ridge, Colorado (103°) and Cedar Bluff Dam, Kansas (110°) also tied their all-time record highs on Tuesday. Our Weather Historian Christopher C. Burt, who mused that this heat wave is starting to shape up like the record setting heat waves of the 1930s, will have a full-length post on this week's incredible heat wave on Friday. Today the heat shifts eastward, with eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois in an excessive heat watch, and eastern Kansas and western Missouri in an excessive heat warning. St. Louis could start to see 100°+ today, and Chicago will likely have their warmest day on Thursday. This heat wave will reach the eastern U.S. by Friday.

Waldo Canyon Fire engulfs parts of Colorado Springs

Firefighters are "on the offensive" on Wednesday as they fight the Waldo Canyon Fire, which started Saturday afternoon for reasons unknown. The fire is 5% contained as of Wednesday afternoon, though firefighters are using triage protocol, according to the AP, to save the homes that they are able to save. 30,000 people have fled their homes on Wednesday as the fire grew to over 15,000 acres. The region remains in a red flag warning as conditions continue to be unfavorable for fighting both this and the High Park fire, which continues to burn west of Fort Collins. Humidity is expected to remain around or less than 10%, and winds could gust up to 50 mph.


Figure 1. The Waldo Canyon Fire as seen on Wundermap, which is burning just northwest of Colorado Springs, and is 5% contained. This fire has engulfed over 15,000 acres since it began on Saturday, as firefighters try to fight the blaze under weather conditions favorable for wildfires.

Debby Says Farewell

Tropical Depression Debby is in the Atlantic and moving further out to sea and rainfall is winding down. Over the past week, Debby has dropped more than 20 inches of rain over northern Florida, and widespread amounts of 10+ inches as far south as Port Charlotte. While still classified as tropical, Debby seems to be losing her tropical characteristics as it merges with the frontal boundary that guided it across Florida. The depression continues to be hammered by westerly wind shear, and could be classified as post-tropical or dissipate all together soon.


Figure 2. Rainfall accumulation over the past 7 days as of June 27. Debby has dropped more than 20 inches of rain over northern Florida, and widespread amounts of 10+ inches as far south as Port Charlotte. Image modified from NWS.

Meantime, in the main development region of the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center is giving an African easterly wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This is the first main development region activity we've seen so far this season, though its peak usually doesn't happen until later in the Summer and early Fall. This wave is producing some thunderstorm activity which is visible on satellite, and it appears to have moderate mid-level circulation. Wind shear in the region is relatively low, only 10-15 knots, and the wave is moving into a more favorable wind shear zone, which will remain until it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The moisture in and around this wave is also relatively low. I would also put this wave's probability of development at minimal over the next few days.

Angela
Waldo Canyon Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire from the Waldo Canyon wildfire burns as it moved into subdivisions and destroyed homes in Colorado Springs, Colo., on Tuesday, June 26, 2012. (AP Photo/Gaylon Wampler)
Waldo Canyon Wildfire
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951. kwgirl 07:12 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Thank you Aspectre for your answer. I just couldn't understand how they counted the rainfall. I guess that means that Texas may have gotten rain, but they are probably still in drought. I heard it would take a month for all the water from Debby to drain out of Florida. I hope it drains into Lake O. and the Glades. That's our resevoir, not counting the springs.
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952. 47n91w 07:15 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
779 Ameister12:
Besides for a few abnormally dry areas, Debby pretty much got rid Florida's drought.

787 kwgirl: I always wondered how they counted drought. We are looking at a map of how dry is an area? Because there is a huge rain event, which saturates the ground, does that really mean an end of drought? If the one event is just that and the heat continues and not enough subsequent rain or what people refer to "normal rainfall" does not begin, aren't we still in a drought? Even if the ground, at the present, is saturated? I know some of you out there are knowledgable about this.

Drought conditions are pretty much determined through comparison with the average amount of water held in reservoirs -- near-surface ground moisture, aquifers, lakes/etc, glaciers, snowpacks -- gleaned from data in the historical records (which is a somewhat problematic*definition). A drought is considered busted when those water-holding reservoirs are recharged at or above the norm.
Which is why a region can remain in drought after one or several "drought-busting" storms have dropped more than the precipitation deficit. If rain falls so hard&fast that the ground/etc can't soak it up -- resulting in flooding that carries most of the water to the sea -- then the region remains vulnerable to water shortages. Or if a snowpack melts abnormally early in the season...

* eg "Drought" may become a permanent condition of the SouthWest -- SouthernCalifornia, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, NewMexico, Texas west of the OgalalaAquifer -- because the historical norm appears to cover almost 2centuries of abnormally wet weather when compared to the dryness found through examination of the prehistoric(paleontological)record.
They're already having major fights over water rights in the SouthWest due to unrealisticly HIGH volumes of water being assigned to individual water-rights holders due to the reliance on the short-term historical record during the original splitting of water-rights rather than on the longer-term geological record.


"Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists."

from Dr. Master's blog entry on June 11, 2012 (link)

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953. SFLWeatherman 07:16 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
AC is going in today!!:)
92.0 °F
Feels Like 101 °F
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954. JLPR2 07:16 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
With the spin still on the east end of all the scattered convection it looks like the wave continues to be seriously disorganized, eh... no surprise there.

But I do want to see what happens after it hits 50W.

Spin is approx at 12N 42W.

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955. kwgirl 07:17 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting 47n91w:


"Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists."

from Dr. Master's blog entry on June 11, 2012 (link).
But I don't understand that answer. Aspectre put it in terms I could understand.
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956. hydrus 07:18 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Apparently, the website is overloaded. I was trying to access this site for 30 minutes before saw your post with your link.

The wildfire situation in Colorado is devastating. First, our thoughts and prayers must go to the many families who have lost their homes and precious treasures. Secondly, our thanks must go to the many brave firefighters who are risking life and lmbe to battle these blazes in the worst of conditions. Thirdly, we feel for the many business owners and workers in the many resort areas of the Rocky Mountains who are losing their sources of income.

Finally, anyone who thinks that the frequency and severity of these wildfires has no linkage to AGW or Climate Change is seriously deluded!
Absolutely. Superprayers from us to them..
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957. CJ5 07:20 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


We couldn't care less young whippersnapper.

Fresca ?




Fixed it for you, geezer.
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958. GeorgiaStormz 07:20 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting 47n91w:


"Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists."

from Dr. Master's blog entry on June 11, 2012 (link)



so why does GA have the worst drought in the nation?
shouldnt AR have it?
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959. nofailsafe 07:21 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting DataNerd:
This looks interesting (at 45W):

Seems like the low trying to organize a bit, no real heavy t storm activity yet but as a feature its interesting.

No real wind shear there atm.

Is discussed as 10%/noninvest on the new TWO.



By the way, I am datanerd nice to meet everyone here. Been around this site for around 10 years now, occasionally reading when things got sketchy. Been through Ike, Rita, and Allison and everything in between. Live and work in ( or rather out of) Galveston.

Been familiar with meterology, weather/models ect for about 18 years. Didn't really get into it until the early 90s.


Hi Datanerd, I'm up in Houston. You've probably noticed there are a lot of folks on WU from around here.
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960. GeorgiaStormz 07:22 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


We could care less young whippersnapper.

Fresca ?




i know you could.
i could care less about weather too, but i care more instead
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961. LargoFl 07:24 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
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962. muddertracker 07:24 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Bahahhahaha...Foxnews just characterized Rick Perry's opinion as "expert." hahahhahahha

It's only 101 today in Austin..
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963. 47n91w 07:25 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so why does GA have the worst drought in the nation?
shouldnt AR have it?


Good question. I'll admit that I don't understand the Palmer Drought Index or how it's calculated to give you an answer. Hopefully someone else can help.

In the meantime, this is from the NCDC page:
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (known operationally as the Palmer Drought Index (PDI)) attempts to measure the duration and intensity of the long-term drought-inducing circulation patterns. Long-term drought is cumulative, so the intensity of drought during the current month is dependent on the current weather patterns plus the cumulative patterns of previous months. Since weather patterns can change almost literally overnight from a long-term drought pattern to a long-term wet pattern, the PDSI (PDI) can respond fairly rapidly.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prel im/drought/palmer.html
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964. hydrus 07:26 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
102 here at my house and in Nashville with 20% humidity, with a heat index of 99 degrees. The humidity is forecast to rise significantly as the heat wave intensifies. ..Not good, as this when heat exhaustion and and heat stroke are more prevalent..We are breaking high temperature records here today that held for over 70 years and this is just the beginning. Today and tomorrow forecast highs. These will probably be topped and some records not just broken but shattered as the mets say...
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965. LargoFl 07:26 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
For those in the western United States hoping for a respite from the raging wildfires that have plagued several states, the outlook isn't good: Much of the West is at high risk for continued wildfires due to unusually dry and hot conditions, and officials warn that it could get worse in certain areas as the summer draws on.
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966. LargoFl 07:30 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
102 here at my house and in Nashville with 20% humidity, with a heat index of 99 degrees. The humidity is forecast to rise significantly as the heat wave intensifies. ..Not good, as this when heat exhaustion and and heat stroke are more prevalent..We are breaking high temperature records here today that held for over 70 years and this is just the beginning. Today and tomorrow forecast highs. These will probably be topped and some records not just broken but shattered as the mets say...
I remember up in NYC, in the middle of summer we might have gotten a few days of 100 or so BUT..that was mid summer..this is still june..what happens when its August for these people out west geez..I dunno about global warming, BUT..the weather IS changing, no denying that, in NY we got 2-3 foot snowstorms every now and then..now..they are lucky if they got a foot of snow...the weather IS changing, has been these last 50 years or so
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967. GeorgiaStormz 07:30 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Repost from earlier.
I wont be able to do this, but i think somebody should





message from BDAwx:

Can I ask someone to go here and save radar images of post-tropical storm Debby as it passes to our north late on friday night and send them to

me. I will be on an island with no electricity camping during this time (hopefully I will be safe :S) and I want to have some record of the storm.

Thanks.






He said just save anything that looks cool and the storm as it passes north of the island, you dont have to save the whole thing of the passage.
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968. aspectre 07:30 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
817 12george1: Won't the remnants of Debby be renamed Ernesto? Because it merged with the frontal system and is no longer purely the same system.

Nope. The (NHC)ATCF has been tracking exDebby to (nearly) the center of the AreaOfInterest.
If a TropicalCyclone pops up in that AOI, it'll be a revivification of Debby.
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969. hydrus 07:30 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
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970. Houstonweathergrl 07:32 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Is it possible that little area in the Gulf will bring rain to Texas?
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971. hydrus 07:32 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
I remember up in NYC, in the middle of summer we might have gotten a few days of 100 or so BUT..that was mid summer..this is still june..what happens when its August for these people out west geez..I dunno about global warming, BUT..the weather IS changing, no denying that, in NY we got 2-3 foot snowstorms every now and then..now..they are lucky if they got a foot of snow...the weather IS changing, has been these last 50 years or so
Climate is changing and it is changing fast. Even faster than I expected and I expected fast.;o
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972. Tropicsweatherpr 07:34 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting JLPR2:
With the spin still on the east end of all the scattered convection it looks like the wave continues to be seriously disorganized, eh... no surprise there.

But I do want to see what happens after it hits 50W.

Spin is approx at 12N 42W.



We need rain badly and this wave if it stays like it is now,will bring it by Monday.Here is this afternoon's discussion of wave by the San Juan NWS.

MOISTURE INCREASES SUN AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL
TROP ATLC FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA MON WITH ENHANCED
CHANCES OF RAINFALL ACROSS ERN PR...SOUTH COAST AND CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE ENVELOPE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND HAS
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL ROTATION/SPIN SO IT DOES HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A DEPRESSION. TC CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS TROPICAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE FIRST TEND DAYS OF
JULY TEND TO DO IT CLOSE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH MOST OF
THEM STAYING WELL SOUTH OF PR. ONLY A FEW OF THEM HAD TAKEN A MORE
NORTHWEST HEADING. FOR NOW JUST THINK SOME BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND
SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. THINGS DRY
OUT RAPIDLY MON NIGHT. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO THE DRY WEATHER THAT WE EXPERIENCED
MOST OF JUNE.
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973. MTWX 07:35 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Apparently, the website is overloaded. I was trying to access this site for 30 minutes before saw your post with your link.

The wildfire situation in Colorado is devastating. First, our thoughts and prayers must go to the many families who have lost their homes and precious treasures. Secondly, our thanks must go to the many brave firefighters who are risking life and lmbe to battle these blazes in the worst of conditions. Thirdly, we feel for the many business owners and workers in the many resort areas of the Rocky Mountains who are losing their sources of income.

Finally, anyone who thinks that the frequency and severity of these wildfires has no linkage to AGW or Climate Change is seriously deluded!


I noticed that too after I posted the link (have it in my favorites). It was working fine this morning, but it has been down all afternoon.
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974. Patrap 07:36 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting CJ5:


Fixed it for you, geezer.


Dat would be U.S. Marine Veteran Geezer to you sport.

: )
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975. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 07:37 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
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976. hydrus 07:38 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


Dat would be U.S. Marine Veteran Geezer to you sport.

: )
nice..:)
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977. aspectre 07:42 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
824 FutureWx6221: Sorry, I'm new here, why didn't my images show up in the original post (798)

Sometimes the image won't be loaded (especially the first time) when you see the comment because of an overly long response-time from the address holding the image.
Happens about half the time when I load up images: first viewing of the comment shows nada. Reload, and there it is. (Less often, upon a reReloading, or a rereRe...)
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978. 996tt 07:43 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Dang
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979. goosegirl1 07:43 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


Dat would be U.S. Marine Veteran Geezer to you sport.

: )


Yes sir!
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980. Tribucanes 07:45 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Ain't no ex never in Marine. Triple negative, I'm trying hard today.........Thank you Patrap for your service. Uncle was gunner on med evacuation chopper in Nam, still can't, or won't discuss it with anyone. Father-in-law retired Marine too from Nam era. We're both Aries with a birthday a day apart. Best of times and worst of times with that combo :) OMG if we don't get real rain totals soon in Wisconsin, at least the south central and south, crops will possibly be the worst yields seen in the last twenty years or more. Corn small and brown with the ground cracking more each day, not good.
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981. nigel20 07:48 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Good afternoon everyone!
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982. Tribucanes 07:49 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Hi Nigel, hope all is well.
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983. FutureWx6221 07:49 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
824 FutureWx6221: Sorry, I'm new here, why didn't my images show up in the original post (798)

Sometimes the image won't be loaded (especially the first time) when you see the comment because of an overly long response-time from the address holding the image.
Happens about half the time when I load up images: first viewing of the comment shows nada. Reload, and there it is. (Less often, upon a reReloading, or a rereRe...)


Thanks alot. I'll try that the next time I have a problem :)
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984. CJ5 07:49 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


Dat would be U.S. Marine Veteran Geezer to you sport.

: )


Thank you for your service, old salt.
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985. nigel20 07:50 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Daily SOI: -20.0
30 Day SOI: -11.6
90 Day SOI: -6.7
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986. jeffs713 07:52 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting muddertracker:
Bahahhahaha...Foxnews just characterized Rick Perry's opinion as "expert." hahahhahahha

It's only 101 today in Austin..

That is funny. I was trying to think of what Gov. Goodhair could be an expert on... but I drew a complete blank. oops.

It got to 101 in Tomball so far, but we had an outflow boundary from a dying storm nearby push through, which drove the temp down to 86. (Its recovered in the last 15 minutes to 92...)
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987. FutureWx6221 07:53 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Current 850 mb vorticity map suggests that ex-Debby is well into the process of detaching itself from the front.
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988. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 07:54 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
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989. aspectre 07:55 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
884 MoeWest: Ok, ok, I admit it was drought induced wishful thinking. NEED rain here on Curacao.

Pret' much a permanent feature of the ABC Islands, ain't it? Near drought, nearly all the time? What I don't get is how you can be so close to Venezuela&Colombia, and not get soaked when they do.
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990. HadesGodWyvern 07:56 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI (T1206)
3:00 AM JST June 29 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Doksuri (996 hPa) is located at 19.5N 119.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
===========================

24 HRS: 21.6N 115.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
48 HRS: 23.1N 112.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland South China
72 HRS: 23.9N 109.1E - Tropical Depression Overland South China
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991. Misogynist 08:00 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Last year Colorado had the wettest year in the last ten years. This year the snow pack is 9 % of average and precipitation is only 69 % of average.
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992. islandgirls 08:07 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Hot! Hot! Hot! Here in Antigua. New member checking in to my favourite weather blog.

Not sure if my first post came through
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993. OldLeatherneck 08:07 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


Dat would be U.S. Marine Veteran Geezer to you sport.

: )


Semper Fi, mate. I got your back!

I was going to ask you why you keep wrestling with pigs, when they have fun and you get muddy. Then I remembered ...."Once a Marine...Always a Marine".

But then, wrestling on the internet is far less dangerous than the jungles of Southeast Asia or the sands of the Middle East.

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994. nigel20 08:10 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting Tribucanes:
Hi Nigel, hope all is well.

Hey Tribucanes...yes, I'm good. How are you?
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995. nigel20 08:12 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Quoting islandgirls:
Hot! Hot! Hot! Here in Antigua. New member checking in to my favourite weather blog.

Not sure if my first post came through

Yes it did. It is also so hot in Jamaica as well...hopefully you'll become a regular on the blog.
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996. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 08:13 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
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997. Tribucanes 08:15 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
Hot but well thanks for asking Nigel. Moved from our house so her father and brother could have a place to stay and we now have a shower and no bath. My three year old daughter is revolting over that, other than that, few complaints. :)
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998. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 08:18 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
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999. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 08:20 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
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1000. whitewabit (Mod) 08:26 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
had a high temp of 103.4 degrees with a feel like temp of 115 .. here in Central Illinois ...
has cooled down to 99.5 now ...
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1001. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 08:29 PM GMT on Juni 28, 2012    
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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