Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The interesting thing to note as to this wave is that it is already running near or on the magical 10N latitude in terms of the coreolis effect and it is going to make it into the Caribbean. I am a little surprised that the ITCZ jumped into this trajectory position so early but it could stay there or drift back down below 10N over the next few weeks.

As noted by the Hovmoller chart below, the ITCZ has been running around 5-8N the past several weeks until the jump to the North with this particular set of waves.

Link

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


bye Grothar.
I will run this blog while you are gone :)
no worries.
have a safe trip, wherever you are going

Thanks, GS.

"Waldo Canyon Fire consumes 15,000 acres"

OK, this is a peeve of mine. Exactly how much is 15,000 acres? Is that very large, small, or somewhere in between? Acres are good for measuring farmland, particularly fields and pastures, but not really much else. It's very difficult to envision anything larger than about 100 acres, because I rarely ever see defined spaces larger than that. I know that one square mile is 640 acres, but I have to get into an airplane to see that.

I think it would do the public a favor if people who wrote these kinds of things put them into a perspective that regular people can understand. It's been established on this blog before that scientific babble that average non-science people don't understand is one of the impediments toward public support for addressing global warming, for example.
Here's what 15,000 acres really means:

"Waldo Canyon Fire consumes 23.5 square miles."
"Waldo Canyon Fire consumes the equivalent of an area 4.8 miles by 4.8 miles."
"Waldo Canyon Fire consumes an area equal to the size of the island of Manhattan."

Oh, Manhattan?...That's a pretty large area for a fire! No wonder it's in the news.

Quoting Grothar:


I'm flying out this morning. I'll be leaving soon. Last thing I feel like doing. Long trip.

Have a safe trip, Grothar!

Another hot day for Louisiana. I have to go to a summer workshop and would much rather just stay home.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Excellent!! Very good multi published Cardio doc I have.He teaches at UCSD. Sometimes I have to wait a couple weeks to see a specialist,but,thats nothing!! Ans Im glad to see Obama increasing VA funding since he's been in,as Ive seen soomany young vets with lost limbs,it takes big bucks to help them and we should help them....Didn't mean to ramble.

That isn't rambling. Give credit where credit it due. He has supported the Veteran's programs tremendously. Some of these men and women are in bad shape. I go often and I see these kids in terrible condition. Hearbreaking. Some people should sit in a VA clinic for a few hours and they would have a totally different view of our Veterans.

571 Bobbyweather:

Looks like EPac wants to make a spectacle of itself, or rather a pair of spectacles.

<---Just back from NOLA VAMC to pick up a splint.

Nice new one with American Flag as well.

with the massive high pressure over the country, that wave looks like it would have a hard time doing anything to the east coast... maybe going into the gulf.

Looking back at debby,it appears that the ULL near the TX area and its positioning was what helped to inject a SW flow aloft(ULL)strengthening her and then as it moved closer to TX/MX(ULL) it ended up injecting Dry air in the UL into debby,snuffing her out,the position of that ULL played a major part in debby's rise and fall as well.Anyone elses thoughts??

Quoting aislinnpaps:


Have a safe trip, Grothar!

Another hot day for Louisiana. I have to go to a summer workshop and would much rather just stay home.

With this system setting up this week, you could get really hot. The are expecting triple digits through most of the country for a while. Drink plenty of Fresca. :)

Here is a portion of the am NCEP Caribbean discussion. They are looking at the wave in terms of some rain early next week:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
649 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

MODELS THEN TREND FOR A MILD WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE NEARING THE GUIANAS EARLY THIS CYCLE. THE WAVE REACHES PUERTO RICO LATER ON MONDAY/EARLY ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SHOWING BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE MODELS ONLY SHOW LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE UKMET IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WITH THIS WAVE. BUT CONSIDERING THE POOR JOB THE MODELS ARE DOING IN RESOLVING UPPER PATTERN...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS LOW.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
SOLORZANO...SMN (HONDURAS)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)


Looks like lots of folks are issuing low confidence forecasts lately.........Must be that 2012 effect... :)

Quoting Grothar:


With this system setting up this week, you could get really hot. The are expecting triple digits through most of the country for a while. Drink plenty of Fresca. :)

whats with the Fresca everybody?
How about some sprite or sierra mist???

.oops

Quoting Grothar:


That isn't rambling. Give credit where credit it due. He has supported the Veteran's programs tremendously. Some of these men and women are in bad shape. I go often and I see these kids in terrible condition. Hearbreaking. Some people should sit in a VA clinic for a few hours and they would have a totally different view of our Veterans.

You are so spot on,there are a lot of volunteers,but more needed and yes these kids have a hard row,but they are TOUGH! I tearup seeing them sometimes.

Quoting Patrap:
<---Just back from NOLA VAMC to pick up a splint.

Nice new one with American Flag as well.

Allright Pat

Gotta head out to VA hosp...........BBL Gro have a good trip!

Quoting Grothar:

Impressive tropical wave for this time of the season and it has not yet reached 80 degree water either.

Can I ask someone to go here and save radar images of post-tropical storm Debby as it passes to our north late on friday night and send them to me. I will be on an island with no electricity camping during this time (hopefully I will be safe :S) and I want to have some record of the storm. Thanks.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Impressive tropical wave for this time of the season and it has not yet reached 80 degree water either.

too bad it wont develop

Don't be surprised if you see this move up to 11% soon.

Quoting BDAwx:
Can I ask someone to go here and save radar images of post-tropical storm Debby as it passes to our north late on friday night and send them to me. I will be on an island with no electricity camping during this time (hopefully I will be safe :S) and I want to have some record of the storm. Thanks.

the whole loop or just some images the storm as it passes?
I will be too busy to save the whole thing, and will probably be busy when the storm is passing, but someone else might be able to help

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Impressive tropical wave for this time of the season and it has not yet reached 80 degree water either.

It is impressive for so early. It looks like it wants to hold together for a while.

Quoting Grothar:


It is impressive for so early. It looks like it wants to hold together for a while.

very impressive.
It will hold together till the antilles, but now it is north of where it was supposed to be but not by much, so i still think it will run into the monsoon belt and dissipate

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the whole loop or just some images the storm as it passes?
I will be too busy to save the whole thing, and will probably be busy when the storm is passing, but someone else might be able to help

Just some images please, and if anything looks really interesting.

Quoting BDAwx:


Just some images please, and if anything looks really interesting.

ok, ill try to save some, but i dont know how much ill be on here, i will try and see if i can get someone else to help too.

im not sure how close debby will pass to bermuda though, but we will see

Check out my new Tropical Storm Debby videoLink

That wave is moving in tandem with the dry air ahead of it per the WV loops, and it is in a very moist environment at present with low sheer, so should it should be able to hold together during it's trip into the Caribbean.

WV loop:

Link

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Check out my new Tropical Storm Debby videoLink

AHAH!!!!
so you are a jonah.
now i now why fl got all that rain...

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ok, ill try to save some, but i dont know how much ill be on here, i will try and see if i can get someone else to help too.

im not sure how close debby will pass to bermuda though, but we will see

Thanks - greatly appreciate it! :)

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
That wave is moving in tandem with the dry air ahead of it per the WV loops, and it is in a very moist environment at present with low sheer, so should it should be able to hold together during it's trip into the Caribbean.

WV loop:

Link

by the 26-27C isotherm
if only it were later in the year.
carib is running near 30c
hot

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


very impressive.
It will hold together till the antilles, but now it is north of where it was supposed to be but not by much, so i still think it will run into the monsoon belt and dissipate

Actually, it is exactly where the wave tracking had it. They have had it moving west to WNW so it is right on track. While there is a sllight difference between the ERUO and the GFS, it is expected to be in the vicinity of the Northern Antilles in a few days. That is when it will get a little tricky. The very strong high building over the US and the very strong Bermuda high, which is very far South will make a good deal of the determination of the position.

This is 48 hours out. As you can see, the Bermuda high does not extend all the way East, so it may bring the system a little further North than it is.

wait, do storm specific models have data from the whole world incorporated into their forecasts?

Quoting Mike5816:
"Waldo Canyon Fire consumes 15,000 acres"

OK, this is a peeve of mine. Exactly how much is 15,000 acres? Is that very large, small, or somewhere in between? Acres are good for measuring farmland, particularly fields and pastures, but not really much else. It's very difficult to envision anything larger than about 100 acres, because I rarely ever see defined spaces larger than that. I know that one square mile is 640 acres, but I have to get into an airplane to see that.

I think it would do the public a favor if people who wrote these kinds of things put them into a perspective that regular people can understand. It's been established on this blog before that scientific babble that average non-science people don't understand is one of the impediments toward public support for addressing global warming, for example.
Here's what 15,000 acres really means:

"Waldo Canyon Fire consumes 23.5 square miles."
"Waldo Canyon Fire consumes the equivalent of an area 4.8 miles by 4.8 miles."
"Waldo Canyon Fire consumes an area equal to the size of the island of Manhattan."

Oh, Manhattan?...That's a pretty large area for a fire! No wonder it's in the news.

Obviously, the conversion is not difficult and you've already done it, since 15,000 acres is indeed about 23.5 square miles. The press, however, works by the rule of large numbers. When most people are unsure of how many square miles their own town is, 23.5 square miles doesn't sound very large. 15,000 of anything, to the press, makes it sound "big" compared 23.5 of something else. It's sad, but this is agood example of what happens in a country where most schools require about half the hours of math and science they did 40 years ago

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


by the 26-27C isotherm
if only it were later in the year.

As already mentioned, SST's aside, and the big elongated TUTT cell over the lesser Antille's in front of it when it gets to the Caribbean, it is an impressive looking little bugger for this time of the year and riding even higher that I thought at about 12-13N.

Quoting Grothar:


Actually, it is exactly where the wave tracking had it. They have had it moving west to WNW so it is right on track. While there is a sllight difference between the ERUO and the GFS, it is expected to be in the vicinity of the Northern Antilles in a few days. That is when it will get a little tricky. The very strong high building over the US and the very strong Bermuda high, which is very far South will make a good deal of the determination of the position.

This is 48 hours out. As you can see, the Bermuda high does not extend all the way East, so it may bring the system a little further North than it is.

maybe, but if you look on your map, any steering to take it N-S off its path is very weak, and this should just go west to the moonsoon belt and die

TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere

so which is it?
does a TUTT help, hurt, neither, both, good and bad even out?
I thought they were bad for storms

Quoting sar2401:


Obviously, the conversion is not difficult and you've already done it, since 15,000 acres is indeed about 23.5 square miles. The press, however, works by the rule of large numbers. When most people are unsure of how many square miles their own town is, 23.5 square miles doesn't sound very large. 15,000 of anything, to the press, makes it sound "big" compared 23.5 of something else. It's sad, but this is agood example of what happens in a country where most schools require about half the hours of math and science they did 40 years ago

Beyond even that, we have 50% (or even double) the number of kids per teacher in schools, and use antiquated measurement systems that are hard for a linear mind to grasp. For example, how many acres are in a square mile? And how big is an acre, exactly?

If it wasn't so expensive and such a paradigm shift, we should totally switch over to the metric system (like the rest of the planet) and call it a day.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281300
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEBBY...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere

so which is it?
does a TUTT help, hurt, neither, both, good and bad even out?
I thought they were bad for storms

Depends on where the TUTT is in relation to the storm. They do generate shear for storms that wander too close, but that shear can also act as ventilation for a storm if it stays just far enough away.

lol

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


AHAH!!!!
so you are a jonah.
now i now why fl got all that rain...

Quoting sar2401:


Obviously, the conversion is not difficult and you've already done it, since 15,000 acres is indeed about 23.5 square miles. The press, however, works by the rule of large numbers. When most people are unsure of how many square miles their own town is, 23.5 square miles doesn't sound very large. 15,000 of anything, to the press, makes it sound "big" compared 23.5 of something else. It's sad, but this is agood example of what happens in a country where most schools require about half the hours of math and science they did 40 years ago

Its called sensationalism. It happens every day in the news, and especially when news people and non-weather people report on the weather. Unfortunately, I see it every day.

Quoting sar2401:


Obviously, the conversion is not difficult and you've already done it, since 15,000 acres is indeed about 23.5 square miles. The press, however, works by the rule of large numbers. When most people are unsure of how many square miles their own town is, 23.5 square miles doesn't sound very large. 15,000 of anything, to the press, makes it sound "big" compared 23.5 of something else. It's sad, but this is agood example of what happens in a country where most schools require about half the hours of math and science they did 40 years ago

In almost every other country in the world, they provide that information in hectares. That should really throw the blog into a frenzy.

Since I grew up with by the metric system and the US system, I automatically convert these in my head. It becomes second nature after awhile. I use either one.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


too bad it wont develop

Why not?

688. GeorgiaStormz 9:40 AM EDT on June 28, 2012\

Dr. M and someone like Levi or Drak can break it down much better than I can but it often boils down to the position of the TUTT and the stage of development that the system is in as it approaches a TUTT cell. For a proto or developing wave, if the TUTT is too close, the sinking dry air and sheer issues can retard development. On better developed systems, if you have the right distance in place, the TUTT can enhance convection and provide a favorable environment for upper level outflow channels.

It's a complicated mix of factors that must come together just right. Then you have your classic stronger CV storms where there may be no TUTT factor in place and they blossom on their own terms busting through anything that gets in the way.

Quoting stillwaiting:
Looking back at debby,it appears that the ULL near the TX area and its positioning was what helped to inject a SW flow aloft(ULL)strengthening her and then as it moved closer to TX/MX(ULL) it ended up injecting Dry air in the UL into debby,snuffing her out,the position of that ULL played a major part in debby's rise and fall as well.Anyone elses thoughts??

I believe there were two important factors. One was the ULL near Texas and the other is the very deep and dry dome of high pressure that has been in place over most of the Southeast since Debby's birth and death. The more or less continuous injection of dry air from the east and north is why Debby never developed a decent eye and why thunderstorm activy on her west side was so sparse. The second cause is related to the first. Because the upper level ridge was so strong, and Debby was growing weaker by the hour, she was stuck too long in the Gulf. She happened to be in an area of the deepest water in the Gulf, and the cold water upwelling kept killing her off every time she tried to gain strength. With the exception of the GFS, the models did an exceptionally poor job with Debby. I suspect they are not at the level of sophistication where such relatively small features like the ULL and dry air are properly factored in.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere

so which is it?
does a TUTT help, hurt, neither, both, good and bad even out?
I thought they were bad for storms

Dry subsident air along the TUTT axis is never a good thing. Not an insurmountable negative. A TUTT backing into the Caribbean where moisture associated with the ITCZ is farther south can be a larger negative than over the central ATL.

Quoting jeffs713:

Beyond even that, we have 50% (or even double) the number of kids per teacher in schools, and use antiquated measurement systems that are hard for a linear mind to grasp. For example, how many acres are in a square mile? And how big is an acre, exactly?

If it wasn't so expensive and such a paradigm shift, we should totally switch over to the metric system (like the rest of the planet) and call it a day.

an acre is about the size of a football field
a football field is 100x50yds
a square mile is about 1760x1760 yds(i believe)
or about 17x35=(40x17)-(5x17)= (680)-(85)= 595 times the size of a football field, which is a little bigger than an acre
15000/600= about 25 miles since 600(20) 600(5)= 12,000 3000= 15000

so this is 25 square miles which is 1.5 miles off.
This calculations took me 3 minutes to do, and was quite lengthy and the average person will not do it.
Especially for a 1.5 square mile error.
While they are watching the news.
The next story would be done with before you finished this calculation

i think they use acres because they always have, and it gives nice comparable numbers compared to each mile being 500 acres.
Its just a habit

Off to get some work done........See Yall later.