Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

Posted by: Angela Fritz, 09:07 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012

+39

Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.

Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.

Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)

Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)

Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

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101. GeorgiaStormz 10:38 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: the 18z GFS has come back west with Debbie after it exits florida..lets see if it keeps trending that way Disclaimer-Just an observation, by no means is this an official forecast debby misses the us completely and ends in newfoundland: Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

102. charlottefl 10:38 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting Methurricanes: Reverse Fay? Further south, or directly back across? Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

103. IceCoast 10:39 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Well you guys are all underwater we are literally on fire! Had a dry thunderstorm move through Boulder Colorado earlier today which inevitably sparked a Wildfire. My roommate and I smelled the smoke and saw ash falling from the sky and both knew right away with the conditions we have had. Was 6 acres when i walked down the road an hour ago and Is now 300. Pre evacuation just ordered a few blocks from me. This includes the NOAA offices and National Center of Atmospheric Research. News says they are evacuating NCAR now. Photo I snapped down the road. Member Since: Oktober 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

104. ncstorm 10:39 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting Methurricanes: Reverse Fay? not that much west.. 12z had it where it didnt affect any land masses 18z has it affecting New foundland Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

105. GeorgiaStormz 10:40 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
weather chat anyone? Link Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

106. icmoore 10:41 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
I just want to say that I know a lot of people have been talking about people bashing the NHC, mets, other bloggers, etc about the "blown forecast of Debby" but what I will personally remember about Debby is what a great comfort it was for me while being alone with 3 dogs and only having moved here in Dec. oh, and did I mention that while I have been a "flippin' Floridian :) my whole life (56 years) I have always lived more inland while longing for the beach. I was sitting here on a barrier island across the street from the Gulf but I had people here on this blog feeding me current info and visuals and many people going through the same or similar or have been there before. I also enjoyed the humor during the stressful hours even the trolls did not diminish the experience for me and I know that is saying a lot :) Nothing is perfect not man or his machines :) but I want to say thank you to everyone here for being here with me and what a cool weather experience it was! I know I am repeating this from the end of the last blog but I can so there :) Oh, and thank you for the update! Member Since: Juli 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062

107. Civicane49 10:41 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
I've made a blog entry on Tropical Storm Debby. Member Since: Juli 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3788

108. Tribucanes 10:42 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Fighting those fires in 100 plus heat for sixteen hour stretches, no thank you. Intense weather all around. Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1599

109. CybrTeddy 10:43 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: the 18z GFS has come back west with Debbie after it exits florida..lets see if it keeps trending that way Disclaimer-Just an observation, by no means is this an official forecast We must be looking at different GFS runs then. Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20178

110. GeorgiaStormz 10:43 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting IceCoast: Well you guys are all underwater we are literally on fire! Had a dry thunderstorm move through Boulder Colorado earlier today which inevitably sparked a Wildfire. My roommate and I smelled the smoke and saw ash falling from the sky and both knew right away with the conditions we have had. Was 6 acres when i walked down the road an hour ago and Is now 300. Pre evacuation just ordered a few blocks from me. This includes the NOAA offices and National Center of Atmospheric Research. News says they are evacuating NCAR now. Photo I snapped down the road. Link Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

111. ncstorm 10:45 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: We must be looking at different GFS runs then. I said west..not NC.. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

112. GeorgiaStormz 10:46 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
a lot of this is probably not reaching the ground and is just making winds to fan the flames: Link Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

113. LargoFl 10:49 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: Link gee the weather is fickle, its floods some area's and dries out others..guess we just have to go with the flow and accept what comes huh..hope you folks stay safe, evacuate if you are in danger,I imagime those with breathing problems must surely be suffering there with all the smoke etc Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22395

114. GeorgiaStormz 10:50 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Well this pretty much confirms the death of the central atlantic wave. By 120hrs it is directly over the lesser antilles here and all that is left is a tiny bend in the line, if you can see: Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

115. LargoFl 10:50 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: We must be looking at different GFS runs then. there were several models that put debby coming back into florida..bamm i think, geez i hope not Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22395

116. CybrTeddy 10:50 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: I said west..not NC.. Okay, gotcha. Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20178

117. Tribucanes 10:52 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
This is from the associated press. Heavy rainfall washed away a 50-foot stretch of highway in central Wisconsin and three people were killed when their vehicles plunged into the resulting ravine and the raging water below, authorities said Thursday. The vehicles fell 12 to15 feet. They ended up partially submerged in a river below that swelled as high as ten feet in places, Backus said. A pickup truck carrying two people crashed first. Another vehicle with one occupant later fell in and landed on top of the truck. All three people were pronounced dead at the scene. This was all from the system that flooded Duluth. Just goes to show how dangerous rain and flooding have always been. The picture of this ravine that opened is really terrifying. Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1599

118. IceCoast 10:53 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: a lot of this is probably not reaching the ground and is just making winds to fan the flames: Link You got it, had echoes move over that looked like that earlier and it rained only for a few seconds while providing dozens of lightning strikes and gusty winds. Absolutely horrible fire weather. You can tell by the black plume of smoke the fires are creating signifying the extreme fuels in the area. Member Since: Oktober 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

119. LargoFl 10:53 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Debbie could be around for a real long time. oh no, enough already Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22395

120. weblackey 10:53 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: I believe its called wunderground notthebestforecast So ... Raleigh's four straight days of 109* may fall into this category as well? (please say yes please say yes please say yes :-) though now it's 2 days at 109, then 108 and 106 Member Since:* April 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 21

121. MAweatherboy1 10:54 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Funnel cloud off the coast of Cape Cod today: Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6287

122. ncstorm 10:55 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Its interesting to note as well that whatever is pulling Debby out to sea falters somewhat in that run as she turns some back to the west while exiting before passing NC.. as I said, lets see if its a trend..I will say though about the GFS, it hasnt been consistent with track of Debby after she exits Florida Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

123. weblackey 10:55 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan: I don't see 109, but various sites--NWS, Intellicast, etc.--show three straight days in the triple digits beginning with Friday. I'll actually be in Raleigh on Sunday. Fun... WU forecast... Hope it's wrong! Member Since: April 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 21

124. GeorgiaStormz 10:55 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting weblackey: So ... Raleigh's four straight days of 109* may fall into this category as well? (please say yes please say yes please say yes :-) though now it's 2 days at 109, then 108 and 106 probably, go look at the nws, i only saw 99-102 Member Since:* Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

125. LargoFl 10:56 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting charlottefl: Let me get this out there before I get in trouble yes, it's photo shopped. A little tropical humor.. And just to keep this on topic: the way the winds have changed direction, now the gulf beaches are going to get straight in waves, bet right up to the hotels..gee Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22395

126. Col15thTex 10:57 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
104 degrees unofficially in Lumberton, TX today with 37% RH. Wind has quartered back to the south and there are a few thunderstorms popping up in SE Texas now (18:00 hrs). Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

127. GeorgiaStormz 10:57 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Funnel cloud off the coast of Cape Cod today: cold air funnel? spinup? normal waterspout? I would ask methurricanes but i know this was at cape cod as was SOOOOOOOO FAR from him :) Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

128. ncstorm 10:57 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: Well this pretty much confirms the death of the central atlantic wave. By 120hrs it is directly over the lesser antilles here and all that is left is a tiny bend in the line, if you can see: When it comes to tropical weather, you learn to never say a storm is "dead"..you would be surprise at the atlantic graveyard of storms that rose from the dead.. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

129. MAweatherboy1 10:57 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: cold air funnel? spinup? normal waterspout? Normal waterspout, there were some pretty good storms off the coast here earlier. Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6287

130. GeorgiaStormz 10:58 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: When it comes to tropical weather, you learn to never say a storm is "dead"..you would be surprise at the atlantic graveyard of storms that rose from the dead.. ok, but this wave wont develop. ill stick my neck out here and say that. Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

131. ncstorm 10:59 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
I posted yesterday that the HPC was saying that temps could reach 110 in the Carolinas and midatlantic.. Gatorade anyone? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

132. LargoFl 10:59 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
.........................................is it just about over for Tampa bay i wonder? Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22395

133. GeorgiaStormz 11:00 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: I posted yesterday that the HPC was saying that temps could reach 110 in the Carolinas and midatlantic.. Gatorade anyone? POWERADE!!! and water. Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

134. Kratje 11:01 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
This is my first post here, I've been reading this blog for long and learned a lot from the experts around here. This is an iteresting year already. 3 rare storms early this season and now Debbie. She might be just a tropical storm, she's had a lot of energy. When I look at all that moisture that's flowing to Europe, I think we in Holland even feel the effects of Debbie. Member Since: September 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

135. unf97 11:01 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: there were several models that put debby coming back into florida..bamm i think, geez i hope not I am in Jax and the city is flooding as I type this. God forbid Debby getting left behind by this trough and meandering back west. Get the heck out of here Debby please!! Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

136. Hurricane1956 11:03 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Heavy feeder bands forming West of East South Florida,don't know if this feeder's bands will reach the metropolitan area of Miami Dade & Broward County?. Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

137. Tribucanes 11:03 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Blob doubled in size in the last two hours, think the center will be interacting with it very soon now. Wow, Jacksonville going to be pushing the twenty inch mark when all is said and done? Debby goes back west, Florida would then be in serious trouble and the people of Florida would be seriously annoyed. Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1599

138. IceCoast 11:03 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Isn't Wundergorund's Dr. Dicky Rood in Boulder this summer? Wonder if he is working up at NCAR and had to be evacuated. Member Since: Oktober 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

139. LargoFl 11:04 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 701 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 FLZ070>074-262345- INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL 701 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR... BROWARD COUNTY NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER COUNTY * UNTIL 745 PM EDT * AT 656 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DADE-COLLIER TRAINING AIRPORT TO 5 MILES EAST OF FORTYMILE BEND TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHARK VALLEY OBS TOWER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT... INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE... KENDALE LAKES... INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL... DORAL... MIAMI LAKES... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. LAT...LON 2628 8050 2609 8023 2577 8029 2552 8071 2574 8080 2598 8107 TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 235DEG 33KT 2597 8091 2579 8071 2560 8066 $$ BAXTER Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22395

140. MAweatherboy1 11:04 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
I said yesterday I would be at the Blue Hill Observatory today helping take the daily weather readings, so here's the daily report for today (I didn't write it, but I helped with a bunch of the observations.) Watching the showers and storms pop up from the top of the hill was great, several lightning strikes early this afternoon. Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6287

141. Hurricane1956 11:04 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting Hurricane1956: Heavy feeder bands forming West of East South Florida,don't know if this feeder's bands will reach the metropolitan area of Miami Dade & Broward County?. SORRY!! FORMING EAST OF MIAMI NOT WEST. Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

143. LargoFl 11:06 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting Hurricane1956: SORRY!! FORMING EAST OF MIAMI NOT WEST. yes there are warnings out Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22395

144. GeorgiaStormz 11:06 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Just saw on ABC that snakes arent the only flooding problem There are also floating balls of what looked like ants in distress that wait untill they hit an object, like a boot or a leg, and they explode into action, climbing up the leg and biting. OUCH.... Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

145. LargoFl 11:06 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Civil Emergency Message ------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- FLC089-270400- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 655 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF NASSAU COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS IN NASSAU COUNTY. A SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED AT THE HILLIARD MIDDLE-SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL...ONE FLASHES AVENUE. PEOPLE WHO DECIDE TO EVACUATE LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION...AND SHOULD NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IF YOU HAVE FLOODING IMPACTING YOUR HOME...YOU CAN CALL THE FOLLOWING PHONE NUMBER FOR ASSISTANCE: 904-548-4980 OR 911 FOR AN EMERGENCY. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22395

146. MAweatherboy1 11:07 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes: Blob doubled in size in the last two hours, think the center will be interacting with it very soon now. Wow, Jacksonville going to be pushing the twenty inch mark when all is said and done? Debby goes back west, Florida would then be in serious trouble and the people of Florida would be seriously annoyed. A lot like what happened yesterday. Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6287

147. GeorgiaStormz 11:07 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: I said yesterday I would be at the Blue Hill Observatory today helping take the daily weather readings, so here's the daily report for today (I didn't write it, but I helped with a bunch of the observations.) Watching the showers and storms pop up from the top of the hill was great, several lightning strikes early this afternoon. that must have been a cool experience Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7031

148. ncstorm 11:08 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
The 12Z CMC sits Debby on the west coast of florida from thursday and finally disapates her on Saturday Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311

149. LargoFl 11:08 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: Just saw on ABC that snakes arent the only flooding problem There are also floating balls of what looked like ants in distress that wait untill they hit an object, like a boot or a leg, and they explode into action, climbing up the leg and biting. OUCH.... ..at night..gators swimming up the street too?..it could happen..snakes too, the swampy areas are all flooded Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22395

150. ClimateChange 11:09 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Looks like another intrusion of globally-warmed air overspreading much of the country. I think it was Dr. Masters' who said back in March that this wasn't the atmosphere he grew up with. Well, looking outside today, I just had the same feeling. The heat wasn't here yet, but it's just so incredibly dry. I don't ever recall it being this dry (especially in June!), and we're not even officially in drought yet. I can only imagine what it must be like further west where they're experiencing severe drought conditions. But with temperatures near 80, dew points in the lower 40s, and north winds gusting as high as 30 mph, with completely dormant brown grass, you just know something's amiss. And with temperatures well into the 90s coming up, it's only going to get worse. Member Since: September 8, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 183

151. MAweatherboy1 11:09 PM GMT on Juni 26, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: that must have been a cool experience It really was... The summit is only 635 ft, but eastern MA is so flat it feels like you're on top of the world... We saw a bunch of showers and storms develop, visibility was 65-75 miles all day. Member Since: Februar 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6287

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