Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
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Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "DINDO" (DOKSURI)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Wednesday, 27 June 2012
Tropical Storm "DINDO" has maintained its strength as it moves closer to Extreme Northern Luzon.
At 4pm today, 430 km East Southeast of Casiguran, Aurora (15.9°N, 126.7°E) with Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center gustiness of up 90 kph.Forecast to move WNW at 19kph.
Forecast positions:
Thursday afternoon: 190 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Friday afternoon: 210 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Saturday afternoon: 620 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Public Storm Warning Signal #2: Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands
Isabela
Batanes Group of Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Mt.Province
Public Storm Warning Signal #1: Ilocos Norte
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Aurora
Ifugao
Nueva Viscaya
Quirino
Benguet
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15 - 25 mm per hour (heavy - intense) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.
Tropical Storm "Dindo" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section which may trigger landslides and flashfloods.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "DINDO" and the Southwest Monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.
NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH...AND IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.
DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 29.6N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
12H 27/1800Z 30.0N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 30.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 32.0N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 35.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 38.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 45.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
Earlier, I mentioned a piece may be getting left behind in the extreme eastern gulf. With new satellite images, it is impossible to agreee on the notion that anything is getting left behind. Indeed, we are seeing everything getting stretched out into a long trough. It's the almost certain end to Debby and I'd expect no surprises coming up on her tail end trough in the Gulf. She's finally done, may she rest in piece...she's done far more than enough to good people.
The center is not clear, but as it rocks back to the SE the new center will tie into large feeders from ENE all the way around to due W. The real wild card is the old center cruising along the NW quad of the new center. I think it may be rotating in circles.
It will all be clearer by the afternoon ...
I am just a little disturbed that the predictable move to the SE after the dry air intrusion (to tie the front back together) and after the collapse of the sheared CoC (loss of anchor pushed SE by ridge) is a predictable move that is now threatening the Bahamas and nothing is said about that danger.
It may become alot clearer soon.
Huh? Okay...I'll take the bait. The HWRF failed miserably with Debby. In fact...it was the very last to defect from a westerly course...well after the other did and a solid 24 hours or so after the EURO did. Overall, the HWRF was the worst model of them all by far.
Debby is so elongated and embedded in the trough now that she is basically dead already. She's pretty much absorbed into the elongated low pressure trough now and really is not a distinct tropical system any longer. She's likely to just fade away from here on out. Otherwise, her vorticity may cruise out along this low pressure axis on a path to the ENE, and it is no longer a threat to North America.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE..IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Is there going to be a bailout for these poor folks who lost property? Here we go again. Not that I mind helping those in need. Do it all the time. However, when taxpayers subsidize construction via subsidized insurance and guaranteed loans in ill fated locations then again taxpayers pay to bailout after the "unexpected" happens, it just seems kind of silly.
gusting to 31 mph
if storms were to come this far west, wouldn't that high pressure push them to the south away from the conus?
ALso been some major damage to turtle nests along the coast. And after record nests were recorded.
I think this is about 12 hrs. old.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
505 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH SET IN COLORADO SPRINGS COLORADO...
THE TEMPERATURE IN COLORADO SPRINGS REACHED 101 DEGREES AT 309 PM
MDT...TO SET A NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR COLORADO SPRINGS. THE
PREVIOUS ALL TIME HIGH WAS 100 DEGREES...REACHED ON SIX OTHER
OCCASIONS...JUNE 23RD 1954 AND 2012...JUNE 24TH 1954 AND 2012...JULY
13TH 1954...AND JULY 24TH 2003.
THE 101 DEGREE READING ALSO SETS A NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 98
DEGREES FOR JUNE 26TH SET IN 1994.
THIS IS THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD TEMPERATURES IN COLORADO
SPRINGS.
Hoping for better news today...
Nea really sad story going on out there.People have lost everything.And their seems to be no release for those people.
Plus, the large ridge over the eastern US and atlantic looks like it would block anything in the next 2-3 weeks anyway
Flooding?
Sea turtles are taking a bit hit from this storm. Nesting was up this year, in record numbers. But now most of those nests have been lost on many nesting beaches on the west coast.
Depending on how this storm travels off the coast we may have erosion issues on the east coast as well. That will potentially damage the nesting there.
Edited to add: Just saw Mark's comment #841. Sorry about the repost.
Manitou Springs had some relief a couple days ago but then the winds changed, and Colorado Springs was affected.
If I'm reading the analysis correctly, La Nina predicts higher that average temperature for Colorado in late spring and early summer. If I have this wrong, please advise otherwise. Hopefully with the predicted transition to El Nino, there will be some relief for Colorado in the months to come.
Natures way of controlling the environment I guess.
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