U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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ExxonMobil's Dirty Secrets From Indonesia to Nigeria to D.C
Yeah, the SST's are really warming, now that the NAO is negative....2010 had some of the warmest SST's on record...i guess that's why Julia was the strongest hurricane that far east
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012
.AVIATION...
PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAVE WEAKENED TO MAINLY -RA FOR THE
EARLY EVENING HRS AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA SHORTLY. HAVE
KEPT THE VCTS IN FOR ALL SITES LATE TOMORROW MORNING (15Z) GIVEN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE
SW AT THAT TIME.
Schellnhuber recently admitted in a speech to agricultural experts that "warmer temperatures and high CO2 concentrations in the air could very well lead to higher agricultural yields."
IF the article is true, apparently Schellnhuber has mastered the art of both misleading wording and of disingenous wording.
And if it is not, the author of that article has pieced together cherry-picked "sound bite" fragments to deliberately disinform the reader.
If one is injecting a deliberately overestimated greenhouse gas level into a ClimateModel, then one can expect the greatest deviation from reality where that deliberate overestimation is the highest.
That "test" doesn't say much about ClimateModel reliability when the injected estimate is closer to that found in reality.
And his use of 'could' doesn't address plausibility.
An as yet undetected GINORMOUS asteroid could cause an ExtinctionEvent that would obviate the need for the type of agriculture needed to feed over 6billion people (well over by the time the Climate catches up with the effects of presentday levels of greenhouse gases). And in the aftermath, won't we (the few if any) feel silly to have been worried about ClimateChange.
The best agricultural areas are already being exploited. And except in parts of Africa, already being exploited past their optimum production potential given the currently affordable technology.
On the main, Arctic and SubArctic soils aren't well suited for mechanized farming. Nearly all of little amount of fertile-after-thaw soils that will become available in the future will be of the type that caused NewEngland farmers to abandon their fields* and head for the Midwest.
Meanwhile in the Midwest, increasingly more days of increasingly higher temperatures during the growing season will probably cause crop yields to drop.
And that's assuming the Midwest farms will receive the same sort of precipitation timing&levels as they currently enjoy. Which is far from being a sure bet. At the very least, snow packs will not be storing water for gradual release thru the drier season as they do today.
An earlier comment about the effect of CO2 and temperature on plant growth
Additionally, the creation of some of those enzymes is controlled by the seasonal spectrum of light. ie The plant senses when those enzymes are needed by how much blue or how much red is in the daylight striking them. So even if the temperature is good, the sunlight's spectrum might "convince" the plant to "decide" that it's the wrong time to produce some enzymes at the levels needed for best growth and/or maturation.
So crops that become less suitable for the Midwest due to rising temperatures might also be far less than ideal for growing in the different Arctic/SubArctic sunlight.
Now imagine those temperature and light effects occurring worldwide as crop-growing regions are shifting around.
* Yeah there are some truck farms left, but they can't compete pricewise on the global level. And unlike in the First world where the cost of raw food is the most minor component of the factors controlling retail price, cost is the IMPORTANT factor for the impoverished billions who rely on raw and/or minimally-processed produce/grain/etc to feed themselves.
The calm, collected answer is that it really doesn't matter, and focusing on a picture of tea farmers is myopic at best, and deliberately misleading at worst.
We dont need those tea farmers to tell us about drought conditions or flood conditions specific to their farm. We have more objective means that average weather over the entire globe for longer durations (climatic timescales instead of weather timescales). These objective measures indicate worsening extremes, as in worse droughts and floods which are expected to continue and become more frequent. This is in addition to the additional heat energy that will continue to change the air/ice/water on the surface of the earth.
Looks like the first CV waves coming into the East Atlantic....
...La Niña Transitioned to ENSO-Neutral Conditions...
La Niña dissipated during the month of April as below average sub-surface temperatures largely disappeared and above average sub-surface temperatures expanded in both the central and eastern Pacific. The current and evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts, suggest La Niña is unlikely to redevelop later this year. The official forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through the JAS (July-August-September) season, followed by approximately equal chances of neutral or El Niño conditions for the remainder of the year.
For more details, please visit the NWS Climate Prediction Center website: http://go.usa.gov/Vmd
Graphic depicts the average sea surface temperature anomalies for the week centered on April 25, 2012.
500 MB
700 MB
850 MB
There is vorticity at all levels in the southeast Atlantic. Is this significant?
That's one giant high pressure...
Jamguri Tea Estate, which is listed on this fair-trade website
http://www.fairtradenap.net/jamguri-tea-estate/
Their email address is listed and I expect they would share information about how they are aware of the effects of climate change if you emailed them a question.
-------------
and....
Within the bounds of Jamguri, common to estates around India, there are several villages where staff and their families live and the children attend state run schools. Amongst other things, the company provides housing, cooking fuel and basic medical treatments free of charge. Every child is entitled to free primary school education and scholarships for further training are available.
http://www.bristolteacompany.co.uk/estates/
I think it's gonna start going down
Funny. We think of y'all that way too.
Mainly because y'all sound very much like Stalin, Lenin, etc that murdered 150,000,000 people...
Ever heard of Lysenko?
That scenario is reminiscent of the early formation stages of Arlene last year. There's a competing low in the Eastern Pacific fighting against the low in the Atlantic. That will be a problem, because it's clear from all the models that pressures will be lowering in the Caribbean in about 8-10 days or so, and convection will be on the increase. So, it will come down to whether the energy wants to focus in the EPAC for Aletta, or in the Caribbean for Alberto. Very good setup for a mid-late May tropical cyclone either way.
The high is building in SLIGHTLY, and the trade winds are increasing SLIGHTLY which will cause the water to cool SLIGHTLY maybe immeasurably
Large scale variation?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
743 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-091145-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
743 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
.DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT MAY
LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND NEAR ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF SMOKE AND FOG MAY LEAD TO SUDDEN
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE OR LESS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER
FOG WHEN DRIVING LATE TONIGHT...SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS AND BE PREPARED FOR VISIBILITIES TO CHANGE DRAMATICALLY
IN A SHORT SPAN.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT BOATERS AS THEY CROSS THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTH BEHIND
A FRONTAL TROUGH.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
$$
MOSES
Not to be off topic to what you are saying, but I am looking at that system over the Baha Peninsula that will be moving into Texas in the next few days.
The trade winds have increased west of 130W as the high pressure is strong right now.
wow.
Making wind farms equals genocide now?
Don't ya think you're reasoning skills and moral judgement are a tad warped?
These things never really go in a constant direction. It's a stair-stepping process, especially when coming off such a long La Nina period. The negative phase of the PDO isn't helping El Nino take control as it is pressing down on the equator with cold anomalies. It's going to be a slow process, but El Nino should take over by late fall.
Good observation, I didn't notice that... That's a powerful system!
You and I both! I could not believe it either. Especially since there was hardly any cap in the atmosphere. I expected it to weaken a little bit but not to the magnitude that it did. I was extremely disappointed as well my friend.
I thought I saw earlier that you were posted in mid-town ...not really too far from me ... if we get a storm this year we need to check on each other ...buddy system and all ...along with ritaevac
edit ...not sure who else is in the Houston are but we'll check on you too
Oh boy....
What's up pottery? I'm happy that you are now getting a break from the rain. The surface trough across the eastern Caribbean have been very persistent and was and still is producing wet weather across the eastern Caribbean.
Shouldn't that read "a'comin"?
Yeah, we enjoyed the HEAT today. And tonight is hot too.
Great clear skies this evening with a wonderful sunset. Strange for May to have cloud down in the west.
But we sat on the deck and watched the mountains in Venezuela with big cloud over them. All pink, yellow, crimson, purple.
Real nice evening.
But it looks like more rain is coming later in the week!
City too.
They only speak "proper English" in the Carolinas.
Fresca?
It actually got kind of chilly today in Houston, with the cloud cover and the big breezes blowing through ...hurried home from work as I thought it was going to let loose
Happy to hear that you enjoyed your sunny skies
Link
Global warming has not adversely impacted India's agriculture production which has been increasing over the last five years, the Rajya Sabha was informed on Friday.
"In the last five years ... wheat, rice, sugarcane and cotton production has not dropped, but increased," agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said during Question Hour. "In fact," he said, "except for Nigeria, no negative impact of global warming has been reported globally so far". Pawar said a number of reports by several organisations about possible impact of climate change on global agriculture revealed that there would be a 14% deficit in wheat production, 11% in rice and 9% in maize by 2020.
"Indian studies conducted under ICAR Network Project on Climate Change, however, indicate that climate change may reduce yield of timely sown irrigated wheat by about 6% in 2020. While late and very late sown wheat is taken into consideration, the projected impact could reduce the yield by 18%, if no adaptation measures are followed," he said.
Pawar said climate resilient practices on farmers' fields in 100 most vulnerable districts were demonstrated as part of a Rs 350-crore national scheme in 2011, but "by and large, we have not seen impact". Attributing post-harvest losses in fruit and vegetables to shortage of cold storages, he said that during the last three years, 1,066 cold storages with a 5.56-million tonne capacity were set up with a Rs 656.33-crore government subsidy.
Now this doesn't seem actually like credible information, but it is news available to those that live in India. Now this next article actually discusses how global warming has damaged the tea crop.
Link
by By WASBIR HUSSAIN / APS WRITER Wednesday, January 5, 2011
GAUHATI, India — Tea growers in northeastern India say climate change has hurt the country's tea crop, leading not just to a drop in production but also subtly altering the flavor of their brew.
Tropical Assam state, with its high humidity and lush greenery, is India's main tea growing region, producing nearly 55 percent of the country's enormous tea crop. Overall, India accounts for 31 percent of global tea production. But a gradual rise in Assam's temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and a dip in tea production have plantation owners scared.
Assam is the world's largest tea-growing region, lying on either side of the Brahmaputra River, and borders Bangladesh and Burma. The area in northern India is the source of some of the finest black and British-style teas. Assam teas are notable for their heartiness, strength and body, and are often sold as "breakfast" teas...
Click the link to read the full article.
Now I do believe that there is some global warming going on, and Ido believe it is influencing the amount of severe weather we are seeing. But I also believe that we see more severe weather because we are more tuned into our surroundings and extreme weather events are sensationalized. We have built on so many river/ flood beds with our desire to live on the water, and covered the land with cement, decreasing the amount absorbed during extreme rain events. The population continues to skyrocket which should will most likely lead to more warming, and a greater number of people experiencing these extreme events. Take the population of Assam, The total population of the state increased from 26,638,407 to 31,169,272 in the last ten years with a decadal growth rate of 16.93 per cent that is lower than the overall national growth percentage 17.64 for the same period. After a year-long census the Directorate of Census Operations of the state has released data on Thursday.Link
Lets look at the sanitation of the state of Assam.
In 2001, 64.6 per cent households had proper sanitation facilities within their premises. In 2011, there was only a slight improvement of 64.9 per cent. The number of households not having such facilities has also declined to 35.1 per cent in 2011 from 35.4 per cent in 2001...Another picture of Assam highlighted in the census report is that 80 per cent of the households still use firewood, crop residue, cow dung cakes and coal for cooking, while only 19 per cent use LPG or PNG, electricity and biogas. While 20 per cent have drainage facility, 79.59 per cent still don't enjoy such facilities against 79.6 per cent in 2001.Link
So with an increase of pop. of almost 5 million( Think South Carolina is the roughly the same size of Assam, and has about a total pop of 5 million) How much has, different types of pollution, water quality among other things changed the tea production. Like I said Global warming has a hand at it, but I'm sure there is a much larger picture, that a lot of people ignore. We are slowly ruining our lands through multiple means of destruction.
That we did!
I was working outside most of the day, so I felt the heat though!
Levi is still around ...not posting as much right now ..once we get more into the "season" I'm pretty sure he will be here regularly
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