U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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Very unusual for May..
Alex was a large and strong June system...it almost made it to Cat-3
last time we shaw that was in 2009 and that was a EL Nino year
Maybe the mountain folk don't want to be associated with the flatlanders to the east. I mean, come on, where else in the world can you find ramp ice cream?
I was born in VA and lived in Falls Church until I was 6. I love to visit the DC area, but the operative term is "visit". I would not want to move back- too many people, too much traffic, not enough quiet. I would move to the Shenandoah Valley, though- it's beyond beautiful there.
All kidding aside, I suppose I have to admit I am a native of VA... but mountain people are the salt of the earth :) You could a lot worse than be associated with us. And I'm not insulted :) I know the type of person you mean.
I could get behind that ;)
October 26, 2010 12:29 AM
By Meteorologist Tom Skilling
The howling winds of a large and still intensifying Midwest autumn storm are to rake the Chicago area the next three days. A line of vigorous thunderstorms may come first, affecting Tuesday morning's rush hour. Non-thunderstorm winds are to follow the remainder of the day as well as Tuesday night into Wednesday and may produce damage as they reach velocities of 50 to 60+ mph at times.
The storm system responsible is huge, measuring 2,100 miles by 2,800 miles, and it's formed as the season's coldest air to date plunges out of Canada into the northern tier of U.S. states where it is doing battle with the unseasonable warmth of the past week. Varied temperatures drive all weather on this planet. The especially large spread in readings between the incoming cold air and lingering unseasonable warmth, are producing swift jet stream winds which have been clocked in recent days as high as 240 mph over the eastern Pacific.
As air parcels are ejected from these pockets of strong upper-level winds, air from below is drawn aloft, lowering air pressures and encouraging air to rush in to replace the ascending air. It's in that manner storm's like Tuesday's generate such strong low level winds.
Chicago's lowest October barometric pressure has been 29.11 inches. Computer model predictions suggest that record may be broken Tuesday morning with readings as low as 29.05 inches likely to occur.
Across the greater Chicago area---as in sections of 13 states---the system has prompted high wind warnings from 7am Tuesday through 7 p.m. Wednesday. Gusts with the storm--- which late Monday raced across the Chicago area at speeds topping 30 mph---are to build at times to 50 to 60 mph Tuesday/ Tuesday night and Wednesday.
By late Monday evening, weather advisories of one form or another covered sections of 30 states as a result of the rapidly intensifying system.
Storm intensities are closely related to projected central barometric pressures. That's why meteorologists often cite a storm's central pressure. The latest system---arguably most intense storm to occur in the western Great Lakes or Upper Midwest since the 965 mb (28.50 inches) Armistice Day Storm 70 years ago on November 11-12, 1940---is to produce a pressure even lower than that deadly storm. That storm left produced snow drifts as high as 20 feet over sections of the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Projections of the current system's barometric pressure generated by a suite of forecast models suggests readings Tuesday may dip to 957 mb 28.26 inches
The long duration of the system's high winds is related to its size. The occasional 60+ mph peak wind gusts it is to produce, may be strong enough to down tree limbs which in turn could bring down power line in some areas. The current system's snows won't be near that prolific.
I agree its more then resolution that is the problem, but you can't exclude the resolution issue, either...
May 10, 2012 - 23:45 UTC
May 11, 2012 - 00:46 UTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST THU MAY 10 2012
.UPDATE...AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. MODELS SUGGEST AN SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND
AFFECT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
May 11, 2012 - 00:46 UTC
Hi Pulse,
I don't consider today's weather a total bust. Even if you focus on only one county (Miami-Dade), the northern part of the county got some heavy rain around 6 PM. The heaviest and most concentrated activity has been in Palm Beach County and near the lake. This is actually what most of the high resolution models (RAP, HRRR) showed for today. Even now as of 11 PM there are still showers and a few tstms developing in that same area, which indicates pretty unstable air. The frontal boundary near that area is helping focus activity in that area versus farther south. Perhaps a little drier air aloft down to the south kept the southern areas from seeing most of the rain. That's the challenge of forecasting for ALL of South Florida, not just one county. We have to consider our entire area and forecasting afternoon thunderstorms in May has a large potential for errors. All in all, I don't think our forecasts were bad. We had a 50% chance of rain for the eastern counties, which is far from a sure thing that it will rain.
adrian
36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Is there a particularly large number of Buddhists in that area?
:)
When it comes down to it, mountain people are like any other cultural/people group, there are great friendly people and then there are creepy people, that's just how it is, lol.
"Spurious" low pressure development :)
Really, though, its a good thing long term computer forecasts are usually way off about tropical cyclones. Otherwise Florida alone would get pummeled by 10 major hurricanes... LOL
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
154 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 245 AM CDT
* AT 153 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR BARRETT...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHANNELVIEW...HIGHLANDS...BARRETT...CROSBY AND SHELDON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO
NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
&&
http://www.blogcdn.com/www.asylum.com/media/2010/ 04/jeanetta-jones-294pg040910.jpg
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1136 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JIM HOGG COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF RANDADO AND THOMPSONVILLE
ZAPATA COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BUSTAMANTE...ZAPATA.
* UNTIL 100 AM CDT
* AT 1133 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED
TORRENTIAL RAIN OF 5 TO 7 INCHES PER HOUR FROM SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.
OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALEJANDRENAS...ESCOBA...ESCOBAS...FALCON LAKE ESTATES...FALCON
MESA...FALCON SHORES...GUERRA...LAS PALMAS...LOPENO...MEDINA...
MORALES-SANCHEZ...AND SIESTA SHORES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS TO RISE.
TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
BROWNSVILLE.
DON'T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!
UPPER LOW OVER W TX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ENEWD TO A POSITION OVER
NCNTRL TX BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY. NEUTRAL-WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL
OVERSPREAD EAST TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD AID EWD
PROPAGATING MCS THAT SHOULD APPROACH THE SABINE RIVER BY SUNRISE.
EARLY THIS MORNING THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE COMPLEX OF
STORMS EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...SWD TO THE MIDDLE TX
COAST BEFORE TRAILING SWWD INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
EAST TX INTO WRN LA EARLY. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...A DETERIORATING EML AND SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THESE STORMS AND THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING THAT WILL OCCUR IN THEIR
WAKE...IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MANY TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
TRAILING BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL TX. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STRONGEST HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER OF S TX AND GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT HEATING WILL LIKELY PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IF SFC TEMPERATURES CAN WARM
INTO THE MID 80S THEN SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SEEM MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
35-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE WIND
SHIFT SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORM
COVERAGE MAY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS REQUIRED
FOR A SLIGHT RISK. IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT TSTMS WILL EVOLVE
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS...THEN
A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS/HAIL. SEWD STORM MOTIONS WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTH TX DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
That's certainly true- but it's hard to get outsider's heads around the fact that "Wrong Turn" is a work of fiction. They equate poverty and disadvantage with ignorance, which isn't true. Keep an open mind and drive through the state sometime, you may find it enlightening :)
The brand new 6z run is far different... It takes a minimal TS on a very eastern course, crossing east Cuba and posing no threat to the US
Both runs support us having Aletta this time Monday.
A little consolidation is needed.
Similar to May 2009. Not surprised as we are heading into a El-Nino.
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