U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think the cyclone has a good chance at forming. Where it goes is up in the air at this point, although the ECMWF/GFS do have a pretty strong trough at the time.
I thought you were wanting one or twenty.
They definitely show the potential of one forming. Early in the season and late in the season, a hooking motion out of the Caribbean is pretty typical. However, considering we have basically been in summer for a while now who knows what will happen with track if something ever does form.
there's no better place to learn....lottsa great people...lottsa great info....
Sample jar showing how sea life such as velella have had to adapt to living amidst the debris
SEAPLEX: Seeking the Science of the Garbage Patch
440 biff4ugo: The volume of air isn't much bigger...
"The air sphere measures 1999kilometres[1242miles] across and weighs 5140 trillion tonnes. As the atmosphere extends from Earth it becomes less dense. Half of the air lies within the first 5 kilometres of the atmosphere."
The phrasing makes me wonder whether the ball is filled with air at StandardTemperature&Pressure. Or whether the author included only the volume of atmosphere under an arbitrary height above the Earth's surface then converted that volume to a spherical equivalent.
On planets that can gravitationally hold air, air pressure decreases with height. So if the author used an arbitrary height rather than STP as the basis for his volume, then the volume&diameter of his sphere is a purely arbitrary choice:
eg With the average pressure decreased to 1/8th of that of STP, the volume would be 8times greater while the diameter would be 2times longer.
If the average pressure were increased to 8times that of STP, the volume would decrease to 1/8th of the original and the diameter would decrease by 1/2
Somewhat similar changes occur if one varies the temperature from STP.
Probably would have been easier to just calculate the STP volume by dividing the atmosphere's mass by the density of air at STP than to type the above critique, but I'm stupid that way.
"Never think of the easy way... until I've already done it the hard way first."
I live in SE Mississippi. Currently in the process of making a lake, so that map of 4+ inches of rain this weekend is a welcome sight as long as we can get finished with the dam in time.
May 9, SST Anomaly
It is still quite a ways out, but the pattern is more supportive of it now than it was 3 weeks ago when the GFS was being an idiot and forecasting it to already be happening now.
Depth of the 26C Isotherm
2011
Good to see you here, Levi.
Agree with everything you said and it looks like this all correlates with the MJO being in the area at that time.
I think it is a bad idea to name anything not foolproof with a name that has an acronym of NO-GAPS.
But then again, the US would do that.
The daily SOI has skyrocketed:
9 May 2012 1014.84 1009.90 26.14 3.03 -0.40
Edit: However, you must know that daily SOI values fluctuate rapidly.
Wow! A sustained value of +8 would generally be followed by some cooling in the equatorial pacific....maybe it will back negative soon, but the longer the SOI stays positive, then the timeline of an el nino would be pushed back
Steady warming in the atlantic will continue for atleast the next couple of days, as the NAO is forecasted to remain negative for such a time period
Nigel,this is from the Australians latest update of ENSO that was released yesterday in the part related to the SOI.
Southern Oscillation Index:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued risen during the past week, after remaining around −7 during the preceding week. The latest (6 May) 30-day SOI value is +0.7.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Link
BRILLIANT !
Yeah, I know. Thanks for the info though
Hey pottey. How was the weather in Trinidad today?
Only stopped raining at about 5 pm...
I got about an inch.
Right now the frogs-chorus is loud and the flying bugs are rampant.
My prediction is that hurricanes will do whatever it takes to make those who make predictions eat crow
You just may be right about that one.
True!
But Presslord is one of those people who have the uncanny ability to get it right every time.
His most recent prediction is a case in point.
If he is wrong, I too will eat whatever is left over...
:):))
I disagree... This seems like one of those years that will feature a lot of those "jumping" hurricanes which tend to jump over the coast and make landfall farther inland... The midwest should be on high alert.
Yeah, the eastern Caribbean have gotten quite a bit of rain over the past two weeks or so.Sections of the eastern Caribbean are still having wet weather...hopefully they'll have better weather next week
IF that pans out.. I will be ecstatic
Do they jump before or after they pump the ridge?
I was never clear on this...
I don't see any signs of dry weather though.
Still a load of moisture flowing out of SAmerica.
I think it will continue for a week again.
A surface trough is also responsible for some of the wet weather being received in your neck of the woods... It is forecasted to move to the west, so hopefully that will lessen the rainfall amounts in that area
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