Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:08 PM GMT on Januar 31, 2012 | +30 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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It was 64 degrees F in Springfield, IL and that was just at 1 pm. I have bad feeling about the Texas drought expanding north through the Midwest this summer. There has been nearly zero snow and the ground has been above freezing for about 99% of the winter here which is just never heard of. I could conservatively say there is about a 4:1 ratio in the number of overnight lows above freezing vs. below freezing here as well.
ya its a good bet that we are going to see one of the driest summers and hottest on record this season for some reason
i was even out looking at trees on the property and there is some small buds starting to form the type ya get right around the first week of spring and today is 50f normally dont make it to that temp till mid march but mom has other plans i guess
all iam waiting on now is the robin to start pounching around on the lawn we dont see that till first week of april so we have to see if he shows up early as well
There are consequences.
Second order positive feedback.
CO2 traps heat.
Heat melts ice faster.
Albedo feedback heats things up even faster.
So either we are skipping right past Winter and into Spring or we're going to get a crazy February ice storm that kills what the last big freeze and summer drought missed.
I'm getting a little crazy with all this weather and thinking about putting the garden in.
Well, BP in Texas City is about 9 hrs from a strike by union workers, so if that happens, they will shut every unit down, therefore cutting 24/7/365 down a smidge
The 6th appears to be the most normalized for lows, but is still very much skewed in favor of above normal temperatures everywhere. Overnight lows are projected far above normal for almost the entire lower 48 every day for the next 6 days.
We need rain very bad driest January EVER in many places here in C FL. Melbourne a Trace was only recorded same in Daytona. Looks though February could be wet especially next week as some sort of Hybrid organizes in the Gulf.
I can guess weirder: (formerly)permafrost methane reacting with atmospheric ozone. Two extremely powerful (but short-lived) greenhouse gases being converted into water vapor and weaker greenhousing (but long-lived) CO2.
Water vapor condenses and falls, leaving the CO2 and OzoneDepletion.
OzoneDepletion allows more ground and atmospheric infrared(heat)radiation to escape into space... leading to extra cooling.
How likely is that particular scenario to be true?
Model seems to have backed off a bit on it's intensity, and moved it more to the NW since it first started picking up on it.
Lots of chaotic behavior still out that far, needs 3 more days.
Wouldn't that be something tracking STS Alberto in the next week. It's possible and the water temps are in the mid to upper 70's.
I've been meaning to ask, do you actually play RTS games? I'm a fan of the Total War series.
Would be much appreciated. :)
Does it not matter?
No, it matters greatly and completely.
Soon all this will force a new age, as its Era is passed.
Also,if one uses Fossil fuel engines, be it a Plane, car, Ship, whatever...can one really begrudge the Fossil Fuel industry with a straight face..?
I dont, Im a realist.
Yep, they call it REGIONAL record cold.
State-owned Bulgarian National Radio said a record low of -29 degrees Celsius (-20 degrees Fahrenheit) had been reached in the northern town of Knezha early Tuesday.
Link
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI
NOLA disco,
A phasing of shortwave energy across the plains will push into the
Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon. This should consolidate
southern stream energy over the central Gulf Coast region
Wednesday morning...then move slowly east Wednesday afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms should be fairly widespread Wednesday
morning...then shift east with better rain chances over the
Mississippi Gulf Coast and adjacent Gulf waters Wednesday
afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are not expected...however locally
heavy rainfall is possible as a stalled frontal boundary may be in
place. Shortwave trough will push east of the region Wednesday
night with a shortwave ridge aloft building in from the west. The
lingering frontal boundary will push south towards the coast or
coastal waters as a weak cold front. Any leftover rain to the east
will end Wednesday evening.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY TWO (11U)
3:00 AM WST February 1 2012
=================================
At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 25.2S 107.5E or 770 km west southwest of Exmouth and 620 km west of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 14 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
--------------------
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 27.2S 107.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.6S 109.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 29.0S 112.3E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.5S 117.3E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
Additional Information
=======================
TC Iggy was located by microwave and IR imagery which show a well defined eye, albeit with relatively warm cloud tops. Iggy appears to have re-intensified to category 2 intensity [SATCON is 71 knots [1min mean] and Dvorak IR eye DT estimates at 4.5 with CI at 4.0, the intensity at 50 knots. This is based on 1359 ASCAT pass showing a region of 50 knots on eastern and southern flank which may be enhanced by the 12 knot southly motion. Diurnal development is currently at a peak.
Although Iggy is now in a climatologically unfavorable region for TCs, sea surface temperatur are 25-26C [warmer than normal], the shear remains low and there is favorable outflow aloft. The low shear is also protecting the core of the cyclone from the dry air at the system's periphery. Hence weakening is only expected after the diurnally favored period overnight. During Wednesday the convection should struggle as Iggy begins to move over waters less than 24C.
Marginal gales may extend beyond 24h, as suggested by various numerical weather prediction models, albeit limited to sectors assisted initially by synoptic southeasterlies south of the system and then on the northern side as the system takes a more eastwards track. Models show good agreement on the track with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. There are no indications that gales could be maintained through to landfall.
The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
6:00 AM FST February 1 2012
======================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (997 hPa) located at 17.8S 171.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 20 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.
Organization has improved slightly in the past 12 hours. Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. Cloud tops cooling in the last 6 hours. System lies south of 250 hpa ridge axis, downstream of an upper trough and just north of the 250 hpa jet. Depression lies in a region of low shear and is being steered to the southeast by a deep layer mean northwesterly wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C
Dvorak analysis based on 0.45 wrap yields. Final Dvorak based on DT, MET and PT agrees.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 hrs
Global models are intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards then southwest.
Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is moderate to high.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC.
Always welcomed.
But your following the Dog , not the owner.
; )
As our ancestors did, or not as in Neanderthals.
It was one rough ride 35,000 years ago when they left the landscape.
did it really exist?
Yes.
ugh
Starcraft 2 and Warcraft 3 Veteran.
Getting too old to keep my Actions Per Minute up though, I'm actually way below average in that, but play above my APM, if you know what I mean.
I am top of platinum league in Starcraft 2 1v1 game.
I have beaten Master level players (same league as the pros) in 1v1 and 2v2 on a few occasions, but admittedly took a bit of luck.
In protoss vs protoss I'm about 1 or 2 leagues better than any of my other matchups.
Had this argument one time with my ally from a Random Team game about who was the better Protoss, well he was even ranked above me, and was making fun of my play, because I never Fast Expand.
I was like, "I bet I'll beat you 1vs1."
So he's like, "Pick map."
So, a few minutes later I beat him pretty badly. I had even told him the build order I was going to be using, because that's just how good it is, it's kinda broken really. So he types, "You are the better protoss," and leaves.
Some of the pros use a build similar to mine now.
I'm a lot better at the strategy and tactics aspects of it, rather than the multi-tasking and micro-management.
To be honest, I haven't played it consistently in a while. I've been playing Starcraft since it first came out, so after 14 years I get a lot of wins just on experience and like, "Yeah right, like that's really going to work," kind of thing.
Unfortunately, if I get into a high multi-tasking game I'm screwed, so I tend to use fast tech builds or rush/counter-rush builds, instead of an expansion strategy. I don't want the game to get big. I like control through a well balanced tempo attack, or harrassment tactics.
I also played Total War but kinda didn't like it.
I've played Age of Empires series, played number 3 online and stomped people too easily, so gave that one up.
Used to play Lords of Magic vs the computer, and of course C&C, but the C&C series always bothered me because there's very little macro and no acceleration of the game, hence no skill gap.
If there is no empirical evidence ... then I'd assume not.
Didn't mean to interrupt this blister fast pace of GW talk. Nice to see you too.
Sadly, most Universities dont allow such activity, as wunderground is a Privately owned Company.
Professor Ivor Van Heerden helped create the storm surge model that warned of New Orleans vulnerability to levee failure. His work and his efforts to publicize this science was responsible for the saving of many thousands of lives.
After the levee system failure - until the BP well disaster, the biggest engineering failure in US history - Van Heerden pointed out that the levees failed because of poor design, constructions and maintenance.
For this, he was threatened by LSU administrators who said they did not want to lose US Army Corps of Engineer funding.
He was in fact fired without stated reason or cause and LSU continues to get grants from the US Army Corps of Engineers which continues to act without meaningful oversight putting thousands of lives and billions of dollars of property at risk.
Hahaha.
Just means it's been a while.
Like when you select difficulty on the campaign, it's like this:
Casual: You have no experience with RTS games.
Normal: You have some experience with RTS.
Hard: You are a starcraft Veteran.
Brutal: Only select Brutal if you are an expert at Starcraft.
I can beat Brutal. Beat all but 3 of the missions on the first try each.
Hard is so easy it's boring.
I found out most people cannot beat 1 hard/difficult computer.
I can beat 2 Insane computers allied against me.
Insane is 2 difficulties higher than Hard/difficult.
Understand?
"Veteran" just means you've played Starcraft for several years.
Didn't mean to get two posts like this, but he asked, and then you askes.
'ugh' was in reference to the potential weather...not the post itself
In mid-October 2011, NASA scientists working in Antarctica discovered a massive crack across the Pine Island Glacier, a major ice stream that drains the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Extending for 19 miles (30 kilometers), the crack was 260 feet (80 meters) wide and 195 feet (60 meters) deep. Eventually, the crack will extend all the way across the glacier, and calve a giant iceberg that will cover about 350 square miles (900 square kilometers).
This image from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument on NAS's Terra spacecraft was acquired Nov. 13, 2011, and covers an area of 27 by 32 miles (44 by 52 kilometers), and is located near 74.9 degrees south latitude, 101.1 degrees west longitude.
Image Credit: NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team
Believe it or not, some people have no choice but drive gasoline powered vehicles to work to support their families. But I suppose that some folks get their support from other sources and have no need for a car.
I guess effort would be better spent providing solutions and alternatives rather than constantly complaining about things that people have no other choice in doing.
Pat, link please if possible. I would like to know if there is a projection on when "she drops".
I see there has been a background of noise complaining about the content of the discussion over the last few days. I think it has been interesting.
Weather is what you talk about when you are not willing to talk about meaningful things. Weather comes and goes.
Some of the other topics (even the *&^%%^#$&^ religion) have been good.
He.
What's more, even when electrics become widespread and more available, a rather large portion of the population simply won't be able to afford to buy them, since they already buy used vehicles now, and so the electrics are supposed to pay for themselves over a longer time period.
So the people who buy electrics are making an investment, and are unlikely to sell them to used car dealers, which means that like everything else, the poor people will not be able to participate in purchasing electric vehicles anyway.
Unless something truly revolutionary happens, they'll still be driving gasoline clunkers for decades...with worn out, leaking parts that make even more pollution.
NASA Image Gallery
Cash for Clunkers Man, think Cash for Clunkers............:)
Thanks pat.
No guess on when she drops though.
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