Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L
Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.
Forecast for TD2
The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.
There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Ma-on's probably embarrassed enough about raining on Japan's Women'sWorldCupChampionship victory parade without adding injury to faux pas.
see my next post in a moment. I think that low might be a "separate" storm.
Thats one surewy to have arevolution
Interesting. Most definitely it's one to watch.
Adrian: Cat. 4
Beatriz: Cat.1
Calvin: Cat.1
Dora: Cat.3?
Link
This is a look at it 192 Hours
Link
Then at 216 Hours we have the storm turning North West (Threat to the East Coast) while a Separate area is over the Pan Handle of Florida
a href="Link" target="_blank">Link
240 Hours
East Coast storm is now near the North East Bahamas. While the Low over the Pan Handle of Florida has moved Southward
Link
NWS Taunton MA mentions the possibility of an isolated tornado. They said in an earlier discussion that the shear profiles still weren't as favorable as the June 1st event, which produced the Springfield tornado.
Regardless, shaping up to be a day of severe weather for us in the Northeast.
ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED...FEELING IS THERE WILL STILL BE TWO WAVES
OF CONVECTION. /FIRST/ WITH THE MCS INTO THIS EARLY AFTN...ALONG
AND AHEAD OF WHICH CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM WITH THE
DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY LAYER. CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE SITUATED WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. /SECOND/
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT POISED SE OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY RGN...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE REBOUNDING BEHIND THE MCS OVER
THE ERN GRT LKS RGN. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO HIGHLIGHT SOME
CLEARING WHICH SHOULD ACT TO AID THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FEEL
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW OF THREATS FOR THIS LATER AFTN INTO
EVNG...WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND THE
ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND LEWPS...BUT WITH S/SW SFC FLOW AND FAST MID-LVL FLOW
OUT OF THE W/NW...COUPLED WITH SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SFC COLD
FRONT...SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANT BE RULED OUT PER
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
Thanks! I appreciate the info. Have a great day.
nope 5 for 4...
90E: Bust
91E: Adrian
92E: Beatriz
93E: Calvin
94E: Dora
Euro show a cat.1 hurricane riding up the east coast(due to a frontal system)
the Cmc is just beginning to jump on the thought so they still have it weak. but do hint at it.
Something can and usually forms before it.
Its also confusing,,maybe use the next invest # first as that is the way its done professionally.
Say, like, I think the Nam has 99L pegged in the BOC Satuday
the ECMWF is saying that "cindy" will be churning through the Eastern Gulf on July 27-29
the EURO is saying that "Cindy" will be forming around 144 Hours and will be churning off EAST Florida 240 Hours from Now while a SECOND area develops South of Panama City.
True but if you are like me than you don't think anything is forming before this feature; therefore, they are calling it "Cindy" because it is the area the models are bent on forecasting. That isn't just ONE model but Three now
Sure: Blame Canada model: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/GGEM.html
Fun lovin' Euro model: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html
Do you see the same pattern of troughs recurving storms like last year?
I know no two seasons are exacty alike but just wondering. Also, do you see any similarities with this ENSO season compared to 2005? Thanks
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