Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The two lows. The one over the Southern US coast is creating some havoc this morning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
556 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LONG BEACH...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 550 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE NEAR PASS CHRISTIAN...OR NEAR BAY ST.
LOUIS...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

From Crownweather:

Bret
Bret is tracking very slowly to the east this morning according to fixes from reconnaissance aircraft. The latest track guidance is forecasting that Bret will start tracking slowly north-northeastward by tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds to its southeast. From Wednesday and beyond, a trough of low pressure tracking off of the coast of northeastern United States will cause Bret to increase in forward speed as it tracks northeastward. The latest track guidance has shifted to the west a little bit, however, even with that Bret poses no direct threat to the southeastern United States and it looks likely at this time that it will pass well east of the southeastern United States this week.

For the second model run in a row, the European model is forecasting that a tropical wave now located near 30 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic will develop into a tropical cyclone near the southeastern Bahamas next Monday and then track northwestward just off of the coast of eastern Florida during the middle part of next week. Yesterday afternoon’s European model guidance forecasted that this same tropical wave would wait to develop until it is in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday. The GFS model does nothing with this tropical wave and the latest Canadian model forecast forecasts development of this tropical wave well north of Puerto Rico next Monday.

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
its going to be a fish storm!! i think we are going to see a few fish storms this year

Jason. It can't be a fish storm anymore. It already hit The Bahamas.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Jason. It can't be a fish storm anymore. It already hit The Bahamas.

wish you guys would plzs stop : Quoteing jason many of us have him up on Ignore and Quoteing is not help we put him up so we dont have too see his commets with you Quoteing him your bypassing that Ignore is like trying too get a round a 24hr banned

still really early I have a felling august and september going to crank it up a notch are two

I added a couple of local reports re: Bret to my blog, if anybody's interested. Seems Abaconians were pretty much caught off guard. Still haven't heard any word from the northern cays as yet.

Interesting spin near Bay St. Louis, MS. Luckily this is not 100 miles further south in GOM.

Hey Baha, Are there any people living on any of the Islands that Brett went over that you know of ?
Carters Cay, Old Yankee Cay, Tops Cay, Strangers Cay

I have been fishing many times on the canyon ridge just WNW of that location. The water is deep there well over 1000 ft. A;ways have a blast.

in your own mind its not a fish it will be a fish in mind dont forget walkers cay (major pit stop for boats coming in from the north)

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
east coast will be sAfe for the next two weeks from any hurricanes or tropical storms

That may be a bit more accurate... lol

Quoting Tazmanian:






wish you guys would plzs stop : Quoting jason many of us have him up on Ignore and Quoting is not help we put him up so we dont have too see his commets with you Quoting him your bypassing that Ignore is like trying too get a round a 24hr banned

Sorry, Taz. I don't have him on ignore, and didn't realize you did. I also wanted to make sure he is posting the correct information. People won't learn and do better if we just let them keep posting the same wrong information.

Quoting AlabamaWx85:
Bret is a fish storm. Not affecting any land other than Marine life.

Check again, it has been affecting the Bahamas for half a day.

Taz, How ya doing this morning. Hows the weather out West.

Quoting BahaHurican:
That may be a bit more accurate... lol

Sorry, Taz. I don't have him on ignore, and didn't realize you did. I also wanted to make sure he is posting the correct information. People won't learn and do better if we just let them keep posting the same wrong information.

thats ok the reson i have in on there be come


A he is name spaming the blogs with new names of the same name


B he all say things that storms will go out too sea wish is not all ways right and it annyoing


and C i have 13 of his names on there

if it looks like a fish and smells like a fish then its a fish,hopefully lol

Quoting emcf30:
Taz, How ya doing this morning. Hows the weather out West.

doing well

Quoting AlabamaWx85:
Bret is a fish storm. Not affecting any land other than Marine life.

Tell that to the Abaco pple who had to cancel games and who experienced torrential rains yesterday and last night...

I can see we are going to have a lot of fun this season with people who don't realize the Bahamas and TCI are even here....

Quoting BahaHurican:
Tell that to the Abaco pple who had to cancel games and who experienced torrential rains yesterday and last night...

I can see we are going to have a lot of fun this season with people who don't realize the Bahamas and TCI are even here....

might as well throw in Bermuda to the mix

Quoting breeezee:
if it looks like a fish and smells like a fish then its a fish,hopefully lol

sorry if this is hiting land like in the BAHAMA its nota fish

sorry baha the fish rule came into effect long time ago way before taz

Quoting emcf30:
Hey Baha, Are there any people living on any of the Islands that Brett went over that you know of ?
Carters Cay, Old Yankee Cay, Tops Cay, Strangers Cay

I have been fishing many times on the canyon ridge just WNW of that location. The water is deep there well over 1000 ft. A;ways have a blast.

I know Walker's and Grand Cays have a few hundred people. Not sure about Strangers and Carter Cays, but I 'd be surprised if not. About 50% of the little cays on the N side of Great and Little Abaco have regular residents.

in the mean time 94E went from 60% too 90%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Not a fish, it's only a fish to some people because it is not hitting the USA. But the Bahamians are people too.

The center of Bret is currently .92 miles off of Yankee Cay and Carter Cay after passing over those Islands and .83 miles from Big Carters Cay. Not to mention all the Islands to the North of the current location. Therefore no Fish Storm for Bret

Quoting islander101010:
sorry baha the fish rule came into effect long time ago way before taz

Not quite sure what you mean by this.... I was here when the fish rule was created...

Quoting breeezee:
if it looks like a fish and smells like a fish then its a fish,hopefully lol

I can tell you as a Bahamian I know what a fish looks and smells like, whether raw, or cooked [preferably steamed, with peas and grits lol]. Bret is not it.

Quoting emcf30:
The center of Bret is currently .92 miles off of Yankee Cay and Carter Cay after passing over those Islands and .83 miles from Big Carters Cay. Not to mention all the Islands to the North of the current location. Therefore no Fish Storm for Bret

Thanks for the correct details, emcf30. Certainly pple from Fox Town to Walker's Cay have been impacted, and I'm sure those at the eastern end of Grand Bahama along with people as far way as Marsh Harbour have been feeling the impacts.

I am just very glad this storm is a minimal tropical storm. Most of those small cays are relatively lowlying, and storm waves / flooding can do quite a bit of damage. But wind damage there under hurricane conditions is all likely to be formidable...

Quoting hunkerdown:
might as well throw in Bermuda to the mix

Someone was saying they think there's a chance Bermuda might see some action from Bret. I think BWAwx was praying for 2 - 4 inches of rain... ;o)

i wish i had $1,000 for evere time i here fish storm

Heat wave high and very warm water temps in the gulf...

And a sign that the Cape Verde season will take off soon...

Quoting BahaHurican:
Not quite sure what you mean by this.... I was here when the fish rule was created...

I can tell you as a Bahamian I know what a fish looks and smells like, whether raw, or cooked [preferably steamed, with peas and grits lol]. Bret is not it.

hum were you clicking palm bch blog back in the early 90s? that site was the cornerstone for all these sites developed yrs later

Quoting Tazmanian:
in the mean time 94E went from 60% too 90%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Not surprised. This looks really good this morning. I did expect it to take a bit longer, given the monsoonal origin. Isn't this expected to impact Mexico later down in the week?

Quoting Tazmanian:
i wish i had $1,000 for evere time i here fish storm

Is this what they mean by "wishcasting"? lol

21N 83W there is some rotation, too close to shore for anything legit to happen though.

Quoting Tazmanian:






wish you guys would plzs stop : Quoteing jason many of us have him up on Ignore and Quoteing is not help we put him up so we dont have too see his commets with you Quoteing him your bypassing that Ignore is like trying too get a round a 24hr banned

eh I don't see your problem with Jason but I actually am fine with him. He always has good information to post.

Quoting islander101010:
hum were you clicking palm bch blog back in the early 90s? that site was the cornerstone for all these sites developed yrs later

Nope. By "here" I meant Dr. Master's blog. Would have been cool to be blogging back then, though IIRC, this would have had to have been happening on NNTP, i.e. newsgroups. So there was a tropical wx newsgroup at the time Andrew went through????

Quoting Tazmanian:



thats ok the reson i have in on there be come


A he is name spaming the blogs with new names of the same name


B he all say things that storms will go out too sea wish is not all ways right and it annyoing


and C i have 13 of his names on there

yea I guess I can agree with you on the "fish Storm" thing. Yet, I hear some others say the same. I am not ruling out the storm closer to North Carolina. In fact I am certain it will pass within 200 miles of NC.

Tazmanian "i wish i had $1,000 for evere time i here fish storm"

meh... A nickle per "fish" would give me a nice long vacation, first-class and five-star all the way.

Quoting wolftribe2009:


eh I don't see your problem with Jason but I actually am fine with him. He always has good information to post.

You had to have been there...

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:


1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. maybe a tropical depression soon for the Eastern Pacific

Is it just me or is the East pacific on Hyper Mode?