Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting pottery:

Really hard to tell, so early.
Is it Ash? Smoke? Cloud? Each would have a different result (if any, depending on how much)

Could also be a fissure eruption pumping out SO2

Quoting dogsgomoo:
First time posting on this blog. But you folks are on the ball! Kudos.

Also now at 03:15 UTC. The visible sat sure looks like a plume, the shadow looks so distinct! Amazing.

The shadow looks to be on top the cloud deck ?

Quoting Levi32:


But it hasn't risen quite yet for us Beell ;)

When it finally does, would it be proper to say the sun also rises?

;-)

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, I gather is very early to say if the Atlantic Hurricane season will be affected by this eruption. But what impact it may have on tropical waves that are still inside Africa if any?

Again it really does depend. The only thing I will say is that if it really is a big eruption, most of the particulate matter is going up to the 200mb level or higher, and it looks like it is based on the plume's orientation with the upper winds. Particles up that high I don't see affecting tropical waves all that much.

Quoting dogsgomoo:
First time posting on this blog. But you folks are on the ball! Kudos.

Also now at 03:15 UTC. The visible sat sure looks like a plume, the shadow looks so distinct! Amazing.

Welcome, traveller.

I wonder how visible that is to the naked eye... I mean from how far away.... should definitely be visible from the Red Sea, say to passing shipping, yes?

Quoting PcolaDan:


Could also be a fissure eruption pumping out SO2

True as well.

Quoting pottery:

Really hard to tell, so early.
Is it Ash? Smoke? Cloud? Each would have a different result (if any, depending on how much)

Exactly. Depends on what is being spewed, how much, and for how long. All Volcanoes are different. Good Question though Baha. My first thought on this was that it is at the right latitude to potentially impact the cane season.

I'm sure folks have already found the animated satellite, but for those who haven't, this has vis and IR: http://www.sat24.com/en/et?ir=false

Quoting RobDaHood:


Exactly. Depends on what is being spewed, how much, and for how long. All Volcanoes are different. Good Question though Baha. My first thought on this was that it is at the right latitude to potentially impact the cane season.

See post 1902.
what you think?

Yep... newest one answered my question. Looks huge!

03:30 UTC:

pottery, Levi, and shore;

I did qualify this sunrise as "somewhat" reassuring.

I'm counting on momentum!

Quoting shoreacres:


When it finally does, would it be proper to say the sun also rises?

;-)

Hmm...lol.

I'm not as well versed in volcanology as I am meteorology, but I imagine the only potential effects it will have on the Atlantic hurricane season is possible cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic region. We normally experience that with our seasonal SAL outbreaks, anyway.

Quoting beell:
pottery, Levi, and shore;

I did qualify this sunrise as "somewhat" reassuring.

I'm counting on momentum!

Ah!

:):))

Doom for Siberia.. it's gonna cost if Russia has another bad growing year.


Russia sent emergency fire-fighting aircraft over Siberia's Taiga forests and residential areas to battle 200 new wildfires raging over the past 24 hours, the Emergency Ministry said Saturday. Twenty-two major ones have been reported, officials said. Since summer began, there have more than 5,500 forest fire outbreaks in Siberia, the government agency reported, with 210,000 hectares (518,921 acres) ablaze, three times more than in 2010. Russian Emergency Minister Sergei Shoigu, who is heading to the affected areas, said the most devastating fires are now raging in remote parts of Central and Eastern Siberia, as well as the Far East. Shoigu said there are concerns of a repeat of last year's disaster, when a persistent drought and fires raged across the country, claiming more than 60 lives, destroying one-third of all crops and forcing Russia to ban grain exports. "Wildfires (in Siberia) are greater in area compared to last year's fires by more than two times," he told Russian State TV on Saturday. An I1-76 plane, bases at Bratsk airport, has carried out five flights to drop tons of water over the Chunsk district. An amphibious Be-200 and a Mi-8 helicopter are also engaged, Itar-Tass reported. Siberia Gov. Dmitry Mezentsev has declared a state of emergency in the entire area as the situation appeared to be increasingly "deteriorating," the agency reported. Siberia's ecosystems have become a main concern for climate scientists. Home to forests known as Taiga, or the boreal forest, scientists have registered major environmental changes in the Taiga as a result of global warming. Last year, a multinational emergency task force came to Russia aid as wildfires roared against thousands of hectares, mostly in the nation's western provinces.

Quoting pottery:

See post 1902.
what you think?

Appears so. low sun angles can play tricks though and I'm no expert at this. Also, truth be told my eyes are so tired right now that I could be looking at a pile of cotton balls :o)

My vaguest recollections also seem to imply that the higher the altitude of the ejecta, the more likely it is to have a longer-term cooling effect on N hemisphere temps.... but I think Levi is right... unless whatever it is has the potential to fall out downwind... it's still too early to even make serious gestimates because we don't even yet know what is being ejected, never mind how much.

Still pretty impressive to look at, however....

Quoting Levi32:
03:30 UTC:

That has to be a 1000KM long.

Levi, any indication of a shockwave cloud under that cloud deck? its impossible for me to tell...

Quoting Bitmap7:

That has to be a 1000KM long.

Longer than that, and its still seems to be coming out of the source at the same rate.

SKYE,
where does the ash from those fires end up?
On the Arctic ice by any chance?

Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm not as well versed in volcanology as I am meteorology, but I imagine the only potential effects it will have on the Atlantic hurricane season is possible cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic region. We normally experience that with our seasonal SAL outbreaks, anyway.

I was thinking that SAL was forecast to be below normal this season... this eruption could, at least potentially, replace the SAL for a portion of the season, thereby dampening storm formation possibilities.... intriguing idea, if nothing else.

The eruption is certainly in the tropics, so the potential to cool temps for a few years is possible. Too early yet to say if it will blow enough high enough to have that effect.

Uploaded by rvermill47 on Jun 12, 2011

After getting multiple earthquake reports centered in Ethiopia is suspected to be a potential volcanic eruption. This has not been verified, but looks to be Nabro, a volcano that has no recent eruption data.
*Satellite data is copyright of www.sat24.com*

Quoting RobDaHood:


Appears so. low sun angles can play tricks though and I'm no expert at this. Also, truth be told my eyes are so tired right now that I could be looking at a pile of cotton balls :o)

LOL.
OK, but to me it seems that the shadow is getting 'further away' from the plume as we look northwest.
Suggests to me that the plume is gaining altitude as it goes.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Whatever it is, that plume is way higher than the surrounding cloud cover.... even shape-wise it seems anomalous....

I can't believe this hasn't been picked up by anybody else besides wx / vulcanologist bloggers...

i picked up on it the moment i recorded 11 quakes in 4 hrs earlier this afternoon PcolaDan knows i spoke to him first of it and he took it the rest of the ways but that doesn't matter this thing looks to be a big and maybe even bigger event to come

Quoting pottery:

See post 1902.
what you think?

It does indeed look to be above the deck. The way it looks reminds me of most other early morning sat images I've seen of columns.

But yes, we shall definitely see how much of the light is tricks and how much is true!

Quoting Jedkins01:


I know this is way off topic from weather, but if any of you follow basketball at all, or know anything about the finals, this is just hilarious, so please people don't have the comment removed! lol!

jajajaja

Nabro from orbit

PIA04953:
Nabro and Mallahle Volcanoes, Eritrea and Ethiopia, SRTM Colored Height and Shaded Relief
Full Resolution:

Quoting JRRP:

jajajaja

glad to see one person here can share in the humor with me :)

Nice, Pat!

Skye, Add to that storms and flooding in the US, flooding in China...basic food stuffs could get pretty pricey. Lots of people could go hungry. And thats IF nothing else major happens.

Gonna head out...will check back in a few hours.
Thanks for the info everyone!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i picked up on it the moment i recorded 11 quakes in 4 hrs earlier this afternoon PcolaDan knows i spoke to him first of it and he took it the rest of the ways but thet dosn't matter this thing looks to be a big and maybe even bigger event

You did send me on the quest. :) As soon as I saw the area I had concerns.
That plume looks HUGE. It has almost made it to Khartoum, Sudan, nearly 1000 km away. There was also some lightning in the area about the time this event started.

Quoting PcolaDan:


You did send me on the quest. :) As soon as I saw the area I had concerns.
That plume looks HUGE. It has almost made it to Khartoum, Sudan, nearly 1000 km away. There was also some lightning in the area about the time this event started.

What time in UTC did the quakes/eruption start?

Earthquake / Eruption summary : During the late afternoon and evening of June 12 2011, a series of moderate earthquakes struck the Afambo, Eritrea area. The moderate earthquakes were followed by 2 strong 5.7 earthquakes. Based on the earthquake pattern and the locations of the epicenter, volcano activity seemed imminent.

UPDATE 13/06 – 00:47 UTC : From now on we will have to wait for local reports, pictures, video’s etc.
We are very eager to get a confirmation that nobody was hurt and that no damage was inflicted during the earthquake and/or eruption.
Many scientists will board airplanes to take a close look at the volcano, take samples, etc.

UPDATE 13/06 – 00:15 UTC : This is a very recent Google earth picture (combined with satellite cloud image). The size of the cloud is 150 km on 50 km! (91 on 35 miles).

Quoting Skyepony:


What time in UTC did the quakes/eruption start?

Approximately 21:30UTC on June 12th.

Quoting Skyepony:


What time in UTC did the quakes/eruption start?

Point between 22:02 / 22:35 UTC

Quoting Skyepony:


What time in UTC did the quakes/eruption start?

First quake about 15:30, last about 21:45. Eruption started around then and first lightning I see was about 21:04. Only 5 lightnings show, within ~20 minutes.

Here is a loop.The plume continues to be big.

Levi~ thanks. Saw there was another 5 off Japan today.

Pottery~ the Russian fire ash won't be helping the fall Arctic freeze.

Well, you late nighters can have it now. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Think the more immediate problem is the Christchurch earthquake though. TTFN

Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ thanks. Saw there was another 5 off Japan today.

Pottery~ the Russian fire ash won't be helping the fall Arctic freeze.

That's what I thought..
Badder and Badder.

and two 5.8 or something then 6.0 christchurch new zealand

The earth was rocking and rolling yesterday:

MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 2.8 2011/06/12 23:49:19 41.045 -125.242 2.6 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 4.7 2011/06/12 23:24:47 -21.305 -70.513 41.9 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP 4.6 2011/06/12 21:41:57 13.309 41.668 15.3 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 4.5 2011/06/12 21:37:14 13.234 41.806 15.0 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 5.7 2011/06/12 21:03:23 13.530 41.625 9.9 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 5.0 2011/06/12 20:48:16 28.099 129.955 19.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
MAP 5.7 2011/06/12 20:32:41 13.460 41.688 10.1 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 4.7 2011/06/12 20:32:27 -8.470 -74.781 144.3 CENTRAL PERU
MAP 4.9 2011/06/12 19:52:31 -4.699 143.716 104.0 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 4.8 2011/06/12 19:44:16 13.369 41.644 9.9 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 4.7 2011/06/12 19:37:43 13.316 41.611 10.1 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 5.0 2011/06/12 19:21:45 12.476 41.748 10.0 ETHIOPIA
MAP 3.0 2011/06/12 18:23:24 59.679 -153.119 15.5 SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAP 4.5 2011/06/12 18:01:19 12.817 41.933 10.1 ETHIOPIA
MAP 4.7 2011/06/12 17:47:21 13.538 41.588 10.0 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 4.8 2011/06/12 17:18:10 13.381 41.764 9.9 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 2.7 2011/06/12 16:51:48 32.236 -97.002 5.0 NORTHERN TEXAS
MAP 4.3 2011/06/12 16:33:12 13.507 41.722 10.0 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 4.8 2011/06/12 16:24:44 13.436 41.682 10.0 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 2.5 2011/06/12 16:15:47 36.389 -117.881 5.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 4.7 2011/06/12 16:12:03 13.397 41.734 10.0 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 4.5 2011/06/12 16:09:30 13.443 41.696 2.9 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 5.1 2011/06/12 15:37:05 13.458 41.684 10.0 ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
MAP 4.4 2011/06/12 14:51:57 17.029 121.760 28.8 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
MAP 4.7 2011/06/12 14:30:50 -4.346 122.805 31.9 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
MAP 3.0 2011/06/12 14:21:41 59.674 -153.409 119.0 SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAP 5.0 2011/06/12 12:57:57 36.195 141.630 33.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/06/12 11:56:03 -56.178 -27.373 96.8 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.7 2011/06/12 11:17:48 17.328 -94.956 126.3 VERACRUZ, MEXICO
MAP 5.2 2011/06/12 11:16:39 56.224 164.203 31.8 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA, RUSSIA REGION
MAP 4.8 2011/06/12 10:17:57 12.838 -88.483 84.3 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
MAP 2.6 2011/06/12 09:08:01 60.091 -152.774 98.4 SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAP 4.9 2011/06/12 08:09:47 36.404 141.005 45.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/06/12 06:34:41 -6.106 148.903 79.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 4.6 2011/06/12 06:24:13 3.958 126.213 62.7 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
MAP 3.0 2011/06/12 06:12:19 19.150 -67.444 12.0 PUERTO RICO REGION
MAP 5.3 2011/06/12 05:24:27 -14.365 171.352 626.9 VANUATU REGION
MAP 4.8 2011/06/12 03:30:53 -25.631 -176.678 35.3 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
MAP 2.7 2011/06/12 02:56:17 38.778 -122.748 0.0 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 3.0 2011/06/12 02:54:13 38.776 -122.750 0.0 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.5 2011/06/12 02:04:55 36.525 -120.667 14.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.8 2011/06/12 00:41:37 19.108 -67.813 53.7 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
MAP 4.7 2011/06/12 00:38:02 35.796 140.602 34.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.2 2011/06/12 00:35:40 19.050 -67.575 7.0 PUERTO RICO REGION

Well, I'm calling it a night. I will definitely be watching to see what confirmations we have by then.


Good night all.

I'm out as well..
Stay Safe all.
Good Morning.