Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

ike- I told you this morning, they were being overly aggressive with the wording. Heck, twenty percent is the new zero percent.

Quoting aquak9:
ike- I told you this morning, they were being overly aggressive with the wording. Heck, twenty percent is the new zero percent.

lol. I've noticed before that that office is too aggressive at times.

I'm buying a Winnebago and will live day-to-day where the wet stuff falls from the skies.

From the Jax NWS: BEST I CAN SAY ON THE PRECIPITATION IS THE MODELS DO SEEM TO WANT
TO BRING US INTO A SUMMER MONSOON-SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVECTIVE
REGIME NEXT WEEK. GOOD FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS BUT THAT MAY LEAVE
COASTAL AREAS ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN FOR RAINFALL.


Guess I'm outta luck.

The daily pop-ups ....sorry Aqua, wish you could get a pop-up,too :] Maybe today...

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB01-2011
23:30 PM IST June 11 2011
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB01-2011 over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-South Gujarat coasts remained practically stationary and lays centered near 20.0N 71.5E, or about 180 km northwest of Mumbai (India), 150 km southeast of Veraval (India/Gujarat), and 700 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan). It may intensify further and move slowly northwestward.

As of 12:00 UTC/17:30 IST
-----------------------
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. Winds are stronger over the southern part under the influence of the monsoon surge. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system center. Satellite imagery indicates gradual organization of convection during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated intense to very intense convection (Cloud Top Temperature is -77C) lies over Arabian Sea between 16.5N to 21.0N and east of 65.5E.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate (10-20 knots). The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 24.0N. Sea surface temperature is also favorable for intensification as it is 30-32C over the region. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence are also favorable for intensification. However, the ocean heat content is less than 60 kj/cm2 over the region which does not favor intensification. The MJO is lying in phase 4, but with lower amplitude (>1) according to both statistical and dynamical forecast, it is expected to be in phase 4 and 5 next 3-4 days. It may not be favorable for amplification of convection and hence intensification of the system.

There is no consensus by the numerical weather prediction models for intensification and movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is expected to intensify gradually and move initially northwestward during the next 24 hours.

Okay, I may not be getting any rain, but I can root for the other end of the state.

RAIN BABY RAIN

ike- my NWS office got outsourced to Utah, remember?

Hi StAug

Quoting alfabob:
I'm thinking MJO will be back quicker than the models are saying. Looks very similar to what they did last time, as they were saying that no activity was going to occur. Even the plots of previous activity were incorrect, and some still are. Around June 18th-20th seems like a good estimate for when activity will pick up, models say a week or two later though.

That's an empirical probability model based on a perfectly "well-behaved" MJO. It is not a dynamic forecast.

That's what I do PcDan....we're very dry here, and havent had rain since the tornado outbreak..but we dont have the serious drought conditions of others...

Quoting StAugustineFL:
I'm buying a Winnebago and will live day-to-day where the wet stuff falls from the skies.

From the Jax NWS: BEST I CAN SAY ON THE PRECIPITATION IS THE MODELS DO SEEM TO WANT
TO BRING US INTO A SUMMER MONSOON-SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVECTIVE
REGIME NEXT WEEK. GOOD FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS BUT THAT MAY LEAVE
COASTAL AREAS ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN FOR RAINFALL.


Guess I'm outta luck.

NWS Melbourne Says basically the same thing. Damn...

HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE HAS WANED A BIT THAT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS WILL
APPROACH CLIMO NORMS...AND AS SUCH THOSE ANTICIPATING THE ONSET OF
THE ECFL RAINY SEASON MAY HAVE TO WAIT A BIT LONGER.

Ugh!
All my rain keeps getting shifted one day to the right!
Also, my wind has shifted from NE back to E.
So now it is hot enough, and I'm sweating so much that maybe if I just go walk around the yard the grass will grow!
:o)

There is no such thing as rain in Florida, you either have hot and sunny or sunny and hot. Pick your choice.

Quoting RobDaHood:
Ugh!
All my rain keeps getting shifted one day to the right!
Also, my wind has shifted from NE back to E.
So now it is hot enough, and I'm sweating so much that maybe if I just go walk around the yard the grass will grow!
:o)

Grass doesn't like salt water. ;>)

Quoting PcolaDan:


Grass doesn't like salt water. ;>)

Good point...been working outside most of the day. Might be compromising my ability to think straight.

Tampa shows no chance of rain til Tuesday. Orlando...30% tomorrow...20% on Monday.

.

MODIS today - Chile volcano

According to NCEP reanalysis, the last very dry decade in Florida was the 1970s. However, that decade had the opposite multidecadal signals (PDO and AMO) that we have now, which suggests that they may not be the root of the issue. It's an intriguing problem.

Quoting aquak9:
ike- my NWS office got outsourced to Utah, remember?

Hi StAug

Hey Aqua. I'll be visiting family in Missouri and Iowa in a couple of weeks. Maybe I'll see rain then.

StAug- can you bring me back some fresh corn?

Quoting RobDaHood:
Ugh!
All my rain keeps getting shifted one day to the right!
Also, my wind has shifted from NE back to E.
So now it is hot enough, and I'm sweating so much that maybe if I just go walk around the yard the grass will grow!
:o)

Rob, off topic but after I joined WU you helped me with posting images and links. Just wanted to let you know I appreciate it. Thank you.

Exposure enhanced animated GIF Puyehue-Cord�n Caulle June 11 ENHANCED

CREDIT: Raving from the big think Eruptions blog.

.

Here is a pic I just took of some Crape Myrtles that are dead because of lack of rain. To the left there are green crape myrtles that are fine, only because of water sprinklers.

Never seen anything like this before

Quoting IKE:
Tampa shows no chance of rain til Tuesday. Orlando...30% tomorrow...20% on Monday.

I'm south of Orlando and NWS saying 30% all week. Also reads scattered and isolated...so I'm thinking just the default June forecast.

LOL

Quoting StAugustineFL:


Hey Aqua. I'll be visiting family in Missouri and Iowa in a couple of weeks. Maybe I'll see rain then.

If so, throw a lasso around that cloud and drag it home with you!

Well, folks...don't think I'm getting any liquid refreshment from the sky tonight, so I'm gonna head inside and try the fridge.

Enjoy your evening!

That is sad, Rita. I fear Florida is gonna end up like central Texas in a year or two.

Quoting aquak9:
That is sad, Rita. I fear Florida is gonna end up like central Texas in a year or two.

Those were well established with a good root system, can tell by looking at them by how big they were, and they had ground cover on the ground which should of protected the soil moisture even more for them. And it's only getting worse.

And...1-2 inches of rain fell late this morning just a few miles from me and this location.....nothing for us

We need a storm here in TX, no ifs, ands, or buts about it. I'm willing to sacrifice.

Quoting aquak9:
That is sad, Rita. I fear Florida is gonna end up like central Texas in a year or two.

I just hope we don't have to start wearing those boots and hats, though.

For all the areas that need rainfall, I truly believe that nature will even things out. Not sure when, but it will happen.

Sorry, I wasn't ignoring anyone on the blog today. I was off most of the day. I saw some questions posted to me earlier and I want to answer them now.

1. I don't think so
2. There is an outside possibility
3. What link?
4. If the current trends hold, it could happen.

Quoting Levi32:
According to NCEP reanalysis, the last very dry decade in Florida was the 1970s. However, that decade had the opposite multidecadal signals (PDO and AMO) that we have now, which suggests that they may not be the root of the issue. It's an intriguing problem.

This is why I keep saying that Historical weather statistics may prove to be completely irrelevant in the near future.
There are all sorts of new influences working Globally that affect Weather, and we have not begun to understand them, far less factor them into the equation.

Sahara Dust is a good example.
The research is still not conclusive re; it's affect on T-Waves and so on.

The study of Weather and Climate is a particularly difficult one since we absolutely cannot duplicate conditions in the Laboratory....

Those dinner-plate-sized belt buckles look uncomfortable, too, Gro.

So dry up here in NCFL, I've brush fires on three sides now. Lots of smoke. First time I've seen the wunderground local forecast say 'smoke' instead of 'clear' or 'partly cloudy'.

Quoting StAugustineFL:


Rob, off topic but after I joined WU you helped me with posting images and links. Just wanted to let you know I appreciate it. Thank you.

Saw this just as I was about to close the lid.

You are very welcome. Anytime I can assist anyone here, just drop me a WU mail. I've gotten plenty of help with weather stuff here so it is the least I can do.

BTW YouTube has changed and the tutorial I did on my blog is out of date. Will try to get that updated this week.

Gulf coast burning up and drying to death

It looks like there may be a slight sea breeze line forming down the spine of Florida,moving towards the West coast.
Possibly some pops in a few places soon.

Floater Rainbow loop.

Link

Quoting Grothar:



I just hope we don't have to start wearing those boots and hats, though.

Will look real Cool, strutting around Palm Beach like that...
Yessiree!

Quoting Grothar:



I just hope we don't have to start wearing those boots and hats, though.

Not to mention the spurs but i did!

Some say that every day without rain is a day nearer to a downpour.
Others comment every day without rain is a day nearer to a desert, I think on of Them was Carl Sagan?

This is what really hurts. Look at this link. We may joke around and everything, but I haven't seen anything like this since the early 1970's here. And I don't think it was this bad. What is remarkable is that we haven't had more fires.


Link

Quoting RitaEvac:
Gulf coast burning up and drying to death

I posted this earlier, Evac, but look at that dry air in the SW and Texas. Endless.