Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Globe cools slightly in December 2010: 11th - 17th warmest on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:43 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011 +1
December 2010 was the globe's 17th warmest December on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated December 2010 the 11th warmest December on record. December 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 30th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The global cool-down from November, which was the warmest November on record for the globe, was due in large part to the on-going moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures. Still, December 2010 temperatures were warm enough to make 2010 tied with 2005 as Earth's warmest year in history, as I reported in yesterday's post.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from December 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for December 2010. Eastern Canada and Greenland were very warm, relative to average, and much of Siberia and Europe were abnormally cold. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

An average December for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., December was near-average in temperature, ranking as the 44th coldest December in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year 2010 was the 23rd warmest on record. A strong "Arctic Oscillation" pattern allowed cold air to spill southward over the Southeast U.S., resulting in the coldest December on record in Florida and Georgia. Nine other states in the Southeast U.S. had top-ten coldest Decembers. Five states in the Southwest U.S. had top-ten warmest Decembers. A series of major snowstorms brought the 7th-largest December snow cover to the U.S. as a whole. December 2010 precipitation in the contiguous U.S. was also near average, ranking 54th driest in the 116-year record. Montana and Utah had their wettest Decembers on record, and six other states had top-ten wettest Decembers--Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oregon, Maine, and California. Six states had top-ten driest Decembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, and Delaware.

La Niña in the "moderate" to "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.5°C below average as of January 10, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.45°C below average (as of January 9.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through through spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events.

December 2010 Arctic sea ice extent lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in December 2010 was the lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in December was also the lowest on record for this time of year, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. At the end of December, the eastern portion of Canada's Hudson Bay remained unfrozen, the first time in recorded history that Hudson Bay has not been completely frozen over at the end of the year. The unusual amount of open water led to temperatures that averaged 20°C (36°F) above normal over a region larger than Texas during the first ten days of January.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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103. txag91met 07:36 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting atmoaggie:
I'd take that bet, but with you, not against...

What do you think about sea level-not-rise? Will that cooling coincide with a 1mm drop in average sea level? Is pointing that way...2010's peak being the extreme and the following year not living up to it seems likely.

(I think this is through)


I guess that would depend most on the behavior of upper level ocean heat changes. (not just sst)
A fellow Aggie sides. With a strong La Nina the planet will cool slightly this year.
Member Since: Januar 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729
105. Ossqss 07:38 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
GISS adjustments of adjustments?



For those with an open mind.

Note, the slander will commence momentarily, but that will not silence the science and analysis contained within :)

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/noaa_2010_report.pdf
Member Since: Juni 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
106. PalmBeachWeather 07:39 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

Looking at your spelling of the word "gross" I see you have the same affliction as i do so you can't be all bad...I also have Dyslexia, 5 out of 4 people have it

As I am getting older , I find myself getting worser and worser(is that a word) with my English, I was never very good in school with English, maybe I should have listened better and quit trying to make my hair, eyes, and lips more important than my studies. I now know I screwed up in that realm
Member Since: Oktober 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084
107. Xyrus2000 07:40 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting atmoaggie:
Like you, I also conduct data analysis, write programming, and produce plots for conferences and publications.

And, I see that we see about the same things, WRT the long-term temperature analyses out there.

These guys around here never talk about some of the finer details. Such as just how is "spurious data" defined, by whom, and what exactly is done to exclude it? If no asks, that could be the conducted subjectively, rather than objectively. That part, in fact, is difficult to objectively define. Is dependent on the application and conclusion attempting to be drawn. A single station 10 C too high? Yeah, toss it. One instrument at multiple stations over 20 years that consistently read 0.5 C too high or low or in some erratic fashion? Who knows? We could debate a long time about whether or not to keep that set...

(cheese? *howl* I love it.)


It would be quite unlikely that an error as large as .5C over 20 years would go unnoticed, especially with satellite data providing data as well.

But you are talking about hypotheticals. Is there any possible way to remove all errors and ensure 100% accuracy. No, of course not. Their can always be an instrument malfunction, or bad entry in a database, or a missing file, or any other number of possible ways errors can creep in.

Could you have a weather station reporting temps slightly too warm? Of course. What about a 100 in the same general area? Less likely.

The point is, based on the data and research we have now collected to the best of our ability, we are seeing planetary warming. Now you can argue all you want about data inaccuracy, however given the thousands upon thousands of measurements the likelihood of a large scale systemic data error is vanishingly small.

You can also email your organization of choice and request the information to see what error bars and methods the use for screening and verifying their data. NOAA and NASA will probably be more than happy to point you to the website where it's described.
Member Since: Oktober 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
111. PalmBeachWeather 07:43 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting Jeff9614:


Sounds like someone needs to get laid. Too bad this guy cant cause he's on this website all day telling everyone their wrong. LOL.


OH MY GOODNESS.No comment from me
Member Since: Oktober 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084
112. Neapolitan 07:44 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting Ossqss:
GISS adjustments of adjustments?



For those with an open mind.

Note, the slander will commence momentarily, but that will not silence the science and analysis contained within :)

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/noaa_2010_report.pdf

It's only slander if it's untrue.

It would be so refreshing if deniers were to ever post anything that didn't come from a contrarian site. Is it that they're completely unable to find anything not written or published by the discredited Monckton, the non-science Watts, or the non-climatologist McIntyre?

Oh, that's right; that's exactly what it is. ;-)
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113. PalmBeachWeather 07:44 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
JFLORIDA.Not even closely weather realated.Not a good post
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114. PalmBeachWeather 07:45 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
JFLORIDA.Not even closely weather realated.Not a good post

Dammit Jim!! There I go typing too fast again
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117. VAbeachhurricanes 07:50 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:

FSU is checking.

So in that case as he looked it would be atmo. Right? and those ignoring the reference material.

I qualified it by " If you are a "professional" in data analysis and you are mentioning it
here with expectations of it factoring into reasonable argument"

I would like to see more professionals here but they are notorious for steering clear of unreasonable environments for obvious reasons.

I think thats a positive feedback that is starting to create a critical mass of unreason-ability in public forums as the internet is rapidly overpopulated with self interest blogs and individual promotions.




don't you have a job you could be doing? actually everyone on here... how do you have time to post 24/7 on a weather blog?
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119. crm0922 07:51 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
It definitely wasn't anything approximating "warm" in December here in Southern California. It's hard to tell what this anomaly graph is trying to say about this region. It appears our neighboring states were roasting, though.
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120. PalmBeachWeather 07:53 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
JFLORIDA.....Messed up on my quote button..It was meant to be Jeff9614 quote.Sorry..And I laughed at your spelling of previous...I do it all the time, well, some of the time...Sorry, I wasn't addressing you for the "bad quote"
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122. Xyrus2000 07:55 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting Ossqss:
GISS adjustments of adjustments?



For those with an open mind.

Note, the slander will commence momentarily, but that will not silence the science and analysis contained within :)

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/noaa_2010_report.pdf


SPPI? Really? That's like backing up a claim that smoking doesn't give you lung cancer by pointing to a report produced by the tobacco industry.

Right at the beginning they start of with an accusation that NASA and NOAA are wasting "huge" amounts of tax payer dollars on climate research.

Really? The amount of money spent on climate research is less than one day of funding spent on the Iraq war.

Then it goes downhill from there.

The report is not peer reviewed. Nor is it checked for accuracy of any kind. It vitriolic nonsense couched in just enough scientific terminology to convince the lay person that it is a legitimate piece of scientific research. The do not list who funds them, nor any reputable science organization affiliations. They list no peer reviewed publications.

It's "organizations" like this that make having any sort of discussion on the topic so difficult.
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123. atmoaggie 07:55 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


don't you have a job you could be doing? actually everyone on here... how do you have time to post 24/7 on a weather blog?
I was going to ask you not to quote the troll...

But, WTH is he talking about?

"So in that case as he looked it would be atmo. Right?"

Does he think I am posting under 2 monikers? He thinks I need another email and password to remember or would do so with no motivation? And successfully remember it years later?
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124. PalmBeachWeather 07:56 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Jeff9614 quote..
Sounds like someone needs to get laid. Too bad this guy cant cause he's on this website all day telling everyone their wrong. LOL.

Lose it Jeff..Not appropriate here..Go to the porn site you visit, but not here
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125. PalmBeachWeather 07:57 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Looks like I screwed up with JFLORIDA..My typing ... Guess I made a grand Faux Pas
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126. VAbeachhurricanes 07:59 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting atmoaggie:
I was going to ask you not to quote the troll...

But, WTH is he talking about?

"So in that case as he looked it would be atmo. Right?"

Does he think I am posting under 2 monikers? He thinks I need another email and password to remember or would do so with no motivation? And successfully remember it years later?


haha if I don't use a password in a couple of weeks i have trouble remembering it. I think everyone could make themselves more productive if they went out did/looked for a job during the day, instead of spewing your POV on a weatherblog. At the end of the day, what you post on here will change the world zero percent. So actually go do something with your lives... and make a contribution in the real world, not the blogosphere.
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127. atmoaggie 07:59 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Looks like I screwed up with JFLORIDA..My typing ... Guess I made a grand Faux Pas
Easier done than said...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
128. VAbeachhurricanes 08:00 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Looks like I screwed up with JFLORIDA..My typing ... Guess I made a grand Faux Pas


yeah... when one wont forgive for a typo, what kind of person are they really?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801
129. atmoaggie 08:00 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


haha if I don't use a password in a couple of weeks i have trouble remembering it. I think everyone could make themselves more productive if they went out did/looked for a job during the day, instead of spewing your POV on a weatherblog. At the end of the day, what you post on here will change the world zero percent. So actually go do something with your lives... and make a contribution in the real world, not the blogosphere.
True enough. With that, what I was waiting for has finished. Data analysis, here I come!

L8R.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
132. afj3 08:13 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Hi all,
Does anyone have Dr. Masters's blog from yesterday or the day before? Thanks!!!
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133. PalmBeachWeather 08:13 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Ok.I am confused now.....I honestly hit the quote and made a wrong post..Is it me? Do I need to apologize to JFLORIDA? I said i was sorry, but apparently I was not forgiven for a "wrong" post.. Let me know if he is a "bad guy" because I think I have done all I could do..
Member Since: Oktober 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084
134. afj3 08:15 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting afj3:
Hi all,
Does anyone have Dr. Masters's blog from yesterday or the day before? Thanks!!!

Never mind. I found it!
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135. toddluck 08:17 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
some one has mail
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136. jeffs713 08:19 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


don't you have a job you could be doing? actually everyone on here... how do you have time to post 24/7 on a weather blog?

Hello pot, meet kettle.

I only post when I have time between tasks, or on my break. Its been busy lately, so less posts from the peanut gallery (me).
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722
138. toddluck 08:22 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
as the wuba turns
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140. VAbeachhurricanes 08:24 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting jeffs713:

Hello pot, meet kettle.

I only post when I have time between tasks, or on my break. Its been busy lately, so less posts from the peanut gallery (me).


im in college... so no I don't currently own a job, double majoring in physics and meteorology is kinda tough to do. I post when I can, but I see others on here on weekdays 24/7. that cant be good...
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142. NRAamy 08:26 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
todd..... pass me the popcorn.....
Member Since: Januar 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
143. ILwthrfan 08:27 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting Ossqss:
GISS adjustments of adjustments?



For those with an open mind.

Note, the slander will commence momentarily, but that will not silence the science and analysis contained within :)

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/noaa_2010_report.pdf


Ossqss;
I know what side your take on Climate Change is, I mainly just lurk on here and listen to both sides, but my view is this. Even if our data isn't accurate enough to declare whether change is occuring on a climatic scale or not, how would you personally explain the loss in volume of ice on this planet over the last 100 years? IMO this is one fact that certainly isnt debatable and the rates at which they are doing so is what is alarming.
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144. toddluck 08:28 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
you got it amy i got an extra large
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145. NRAamy 08:28 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
woo hoo!

:)
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146. toddluck 08:29 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
palm you have wuba mail
Member Since: April 28, 2006 Posts: 209 Comments: 14123
148. VAbeachhurricanes 08:29 PM GMT on Januar 18, 2011    
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Ossqss;
I know what side your take on Climate Change is, I mainly just lurk on here and listen to both sides, but my view is this. Even if our data isn't accurate


This is such a cliffhanger, I can't wait for the sequel!
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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