Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
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I'm with you on the time frame for development this week...But not on it becoming a Rita-like monster.
Link
Amen Storm. That gets old quick. I too hope they're spared.
This is weird. Shows possibility of development in the Caribbean but doesn't show anything with 97L.
Well you got me there...But I don't expect a CAT5, but I expect some sort of Hurricane due to High SSTs and the favorable environment expected in the Gulf.
EDIT: My forecast for a hurricane is amateur and speculative. DO NOT take it seriously.
True.
i see there are some clowns and jokers here and in the end thats all that will remain as the rest slowly drifts away including myself
Awesome site and loop......Thank You.
Excerpt:
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
INDICATES THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE TO TRANSITION
TO A WEAK CONVERGENT/NEUTRAL PATTERN...WHICH IS TO LAST FOR TEN
DAYS...AND TRANSITIONING AGAIN TO A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BY THE
FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST.
Sure looks that way ROLL TIDE!
No pun intended
I'm no expert, but on the Meteosat it looks as if the dry Saharan air is already penetrating the core of this wave and causing it to spread out. That doesn't seem too favorable for development.
Should be a system in place that allows the bloggers to vote someone out / IP Ban. There are way too many morons that infiltrate this site and stir the pot.
I agree with IKE's idea and make it mandatory Membership fee ~ $10.00 - $20.00, and also make it so that every time you want to create a new screen name, you have to pay up!
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Morning, just sippin on a nice hot cup of Joe
Who is Drake?
No development off the coast of Africa due to SAL.
A bit early for me to worry about a major threat to the U.S. Having said that, the Cape Verde season is getting close and we'll have to see what the track setup looks like once we have our first named CV storm.
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