Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yeah i see that too... interesting... maybe a birth to a big atl storm
Guess there won't be too much dust next year with all that rain. I would think the people there are quite happy with it.
yeah, you're right
The low is having a baby? XD
After watching this I'm sure the area is not related to the TW, its a ITCZ disturbance, you can see it was already brewing over water while the wave was inland.
I expect they're gonna hafta pull the cap sooner or later. Izzadamn ugly situation.
Definitely the strongest I've observed since we have had the feed.
Subsea operational update:
The well integrity test is ongoing and active monitoring continues.
Currently the well remains shut-in with no oil flowing into the Gulf; any significant change to this operation will be announced via a press release.
Pressure continues to slowly increase and is approximately 6775 psi.
We anticipate the next update will be provided at around 9:30am CDT on July 19, 2010.
Updated July 18 at 9:30am CDT
Skandi_ROV 1
Night Storm!
Thanks again, sleep well
lol
July 18, 2010 - 9:50 PM EDT - Extensive Tropical Update
BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - (Breaking) Anonymous Official Expresses Concern about Seeps and Pressure (and Open Thread)
Posted by Heading Out on July 18, 2010 - 7:42pm
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: deepwater horizon, oil spill [list all tags]
Update: 9:00PM EDT Sunday: Admiral Allen has sent a letter to BP about seeps which have been detected "a distance from the well", and indicates that BP needs to develop a plan for opening the choke valve as quickly as possible without damaging the well, in the event that hydrocarbon seepage near the well head is confirmed. This is what the letter says:
Dear Mr. Dudley,
My letter to you on July 16, 2010 extended the Well Integrity Test period contingent upon the completion of seismic surveys, robust monitoring for indications of leakage, and acoustic testing by the NOAA vessel PISCES in the immediate vicinity of the well head. Given the current observations from the test, including the detected seep a distance from the well and undetermined anomalies at the well head, monitoring of the seabed is of paramount importance during the test period. As a continued condition of the test, you are required to provide as a top priority access and coordination for the monitoring systems, which include seismic and sonar surface ships and subsea ROV and acoustic systems. When seeps are detected, you are directed to marshal resources, quickly investigate, and report findings to the government in no more than four hours. I direct you to provide me a written procedure for opening the choke valve as quickly as possible without damaging the well should hydrocarbon seepage near the well head be confirmed.
As the National Incident Commander, I must remain abreast of the status of your source control efforts. Now that source control has evolved into a period beyond the expected 48 hour interval of the Well Integrity Test, I am requiring that you provide me a written update within 24 hours of your intentions going forward. I remain concerned that all potential options to eliminate the discharge of oil be pursued with utmost speed until I can be assured that no additional oil will spill from the Macondo Well.
You may use your letter of 9 July as a basis for your update. Specifically, you must provide me your latest containment plan and schedule in the event that the Well Integrity Test is suspended, the status and completion timelines for all containment options currently under development, and details of any other viable source control options including hydraulic control that you are
considering. You should highlight any points at which progress along one option will be impacted by resource trade-offs to achieve progress along another option. Include options for and impacts of continued twice-a day seismic testing versus once a day testing.
As you develop the plans above, note that the primary method of securing the source is the relief well and this effort takes precedence. Therefore, I direct you to provide a detailed plan for the final stages of the relief well that specifically addresses the interaction of this schedule and any other activity that may potentially delay relief well completion.
Have your representative provide results on the monitoring efforts and source control requirements described above during todays BP and Government Science Team call at 8:00 PM CDT.
Sincerely,
THAD W. ALLEN
That looks like some 40 kt winds in the convection.
Oooh! Ahhh!
haha!
Uhhhh! The claw! LOL!
Nice loop of the ITCZ disturbance.
That plot is a mess during June and the first part of July. It is as if the Atlantic started a new wave in that time frame.
Why was Bastardi saying the MJO was causing the HWRF to overdevelop systems for this weekend in the GOM if it has moved on to the Indian Ocean already?
That picture of Africa you posted earlier would suggest the MJO is enhancing convection over Africa. Is that what this plot is supposed to show, where the enhanced convection is?
July 18, 2010 - 9:50 PM EDT - Extensive Tropical Update
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
9:00 AM JST July 19 2010
============================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 14.9N 117.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 16.0N 115.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Haha, thanks. And yup, surely is "The Claw"!
The ITCZ disturbance noted in the loop above?
5 actually. XD
I'm dizzy LOL!
4TWs and a disturbance
Wow! I applaud to your blog. You sound like a forecaster from the NHC when you say "However, surface observations from Jamaica reveal surface pressures remain high".
Oh...I didn't really notice it without my glasses.
My letter to you on July 16, 2010 extended the Well Integrity Test period contingent upon the completion of seismic surveys, robust monitoring for indications of leakage, and acoustic testing by the NOAA vessel PISCES in the immediate vicinity of the well head. Given the current observations from the test, including the detected seep a distance from the well and undetermined anomalies at the well head, monitoring of the seabed is of paramount importance during the test period. As a continued condition of the test, you are required to provide as a top priority access and coordination for the monitoring systems, which include seismic and sonar surface ships and subsea ROV and acoustic systems. When seeps are detected, you are directed to marshal resources, quickly investigate, and report findings to the government in no more than four hours. I direct you to provide me a written procedure for opening the choke valve as quickly as possible without damaging the well should hydrocarbon seepage near the well head be confirmed.
I don't think we can get unscrewed from what has already happened. It is interesting how the govt is having to hold BP's feet to the fire. The kind of attention to detail being demanded is exactly what BP did not exercise prior to the blow out.
Seems to have interacted a little with the wave, but its been separate all along.
Too many questions and Elvis has left the building. :)
just as long as it's TROPICAL! LOL
*Looks at EATL IR loop*
O_O I...See...IT!!
I think the stronger low to the North and east may weaken into an open wave, and eventually dissipate, while the low forming in the convection, may become something of concern later on as it moves WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html
YAY! Someone mentioned me! LOL
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