Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
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P.S.
Hope that the overwhelming show of support will help alleviate some of the frustration. I know that you have to be overly redundant sometimes to drive the point home but your input is much appreciated
I think Levi is having a hard time with Calculus...Poor guy.
MSGambler~ I haven't seen the feeds. Just the article that seeps were afoot & BP wasn't doing what the govt wanted..
Not sure they don't specifically say, but I believe it is. That sites concensus for the season:
There is a consensus that ASO 2010 will be a season of large AWP, weak Caribbean low level jet, weak southerlies from the Gulf of Mexico* and weak North Atlantic Sub-tropical high. As a consequence of these changes in the circulation features and the anomalous large AWP we expect a higher probability of the following:
1.Weaker than normal rainfall over southern Mexico
2.Weaker than normal rainfall over mid-west and North American monsoon region
3.Weaker than normal Tornado activity in the Tornado alley
4.Stronger than normal rainfall in South Florida and Cuba
5.Weaker than normal vertical shear in the maximum development region of the tropical Atlantic
6.Stronger than normal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity
* Although a majority of the models in this forum seem to display stronger than normal southerlies over the US at 850hPa, which may be a response to the cold SST in the Equatorial East Pacific.
Website under Consensus Forecast
THANK YOU!! I LOVE IT!!
ULL collapsing
will switch to slight positive
it shows 2 tropical systems forming from the 3 existing waves we
are currently seeing in the Carribean. One striking the Texas/Mexico
border area similiar to ALEX and the other hitting the most populated
area in south florida near Miami/Dade. I usually dont trust the CMC track
wise but it may be on to something. I will post a link in a min so you can
see for yourself. It's looks very interesting though for sure.
I wish it was Constantly Making Cookies, because I'd eat them all up! LOL
Good to see you, keeping the Weather-Eye focused.
I am looking at the Caribbean, and thinking "this looks interesting".
The recent waves off Africa have been dissed by SAL, but I dont think that SAL is going to stick around much longer...
Thanks! I have no idea how I missed it. I went back and looked at TWO's and after Alex dissipated the TWO just said refer to the HPC for more information. While TD2 stuck around quite a while after it dissipated on the TWO because of HPC's advisories. So you're most likely right.
StormW , just one thing I was saddened today to learn you were thinking of leaving this blog, please don't, its people like you I learn from regardless of the odd theories i throw around at times, science is science until proven otherwise! Stay with us Please!
CMC Link
They are from a Global Spectral Model, which are used for climate forecasting. I have not seen any work published comparing forecast vs. actual. Since it is a seasonal forecast (August, September, October) I would not put much weight in actual tracks, but would consider it for number of systems.
cool, was wanting something like that the other day
Thanks for sharing! You're always on top of stuff like this
actually it was "redone" recently and with the upgrades
it is supposed to rival the GFS long term.
Storm hinted on the spin-up visible on the IR2
Viewing: 1351 - 1401
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