Tropical Storm Agatha, Pacaya volcano kill 15 in Guatemala; oil spill update
Tropical Storm Agatha, the first Eastern Pacific named storm of 2010, was short lived but deadly. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed twelve people in Guatemala, and one person in neighboring El Salvador. According to the excellent Guatemala weather site, climaya.com, rainfall amounts of up to 152 mm (six inches) in 24 hours have occurred in some regions of Guatemala. The National Hurricane Center is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 30 inches may fall the next few days in some mountainous regions near where the storm has dissipated. Adding to the mayhem is fallout from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting three days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Agatha at landfall. The storm was intensifying right up until landfall, and had an impressive "hot tower" of building cumulonimbus clouds near its center that brought heavy rains to Guatemala.
Figure 2. Flooding in Quetzaltenango, Zone 2, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Carlos Diaz, climaya.com
Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Winds are expected to shift to southwesterly on Wednesday and continue through Friday, increasing in force to 10 - 20 knots late in the week as a cold front approaches the Gulf. These persistent and strengthening southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to shore from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
I'll probably be back Monday with a quick update. Have a great holiday weekend!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No! Its a her. Her name is Christine Riedel.
Good, nope the rain stopped, at least for my area, radar is down, so I have no idea whats going on >:\
anticylcone is slowly moving northward still over honduras
That's ok, I figured I'd get bannable proof just for the heck of it and make him mad lol.
http://www.aolnews.com/the-grid/article/2010-hurricane-forecast-scorecard/19495922
his
good work Levi
LOL!
Wow, I fell for it. LOL
LoopEPACFloater
She's on the EPAC Floater and Atlantic Floater!
Two different views.
LoopATLFloater
he plagiarized an article when making "his forecast", that is what is being commented on
anyway guess we could get back to talking about ex-Agatha
He knows what he's doing....just a troll. Ignore and move on....we have better things to talk about and trolls just like attention, which we are giving him at the moment.
I think I would be annoyed by people quoting a person I ignored, the reason why I'm not quoting him. XD
I ignore most of the BS here, but a blatant plagiarism I can't ignore. One of my buttons I guess. :)
I am ready to move on, so what are your thoughts of the floater being moved to the Atlantic for Ex-Agatha?
I was thinking it is just for tracking purposes more than anything
yep, it has an Atlantic floater now :P
That's all I have LOL!
I agree. I'm sure the NHC is keeping a close eye on the situation, as they should, but I think they also believe that chances for re-development are minimal, and I am of the same mind.
Neither of those comments is funny, sorry. The mentally challenged do not deserve being used to make fun of someone.
I am surprised that the remains of Agatha actually held together as well as they have. The Mid-level circulation remains near the coast of Belize. However, wind shear in the GOM is 60kts and that will spell its final demise.
So with no anti-cyclone I guess the remains of Agatha wont do much for the time being.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW5agkwJ53w
Seriously people, just simply ignore him. Not worth the aggravation.
Looks interesting
But there isn't much vorticity there, so just convection
Ah, so you're admitting you're avoiding a ban.
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