Tropical Storm Agatha, Pacaya volcano kill 15 in Guatemala; oil spill update
Tropical Storm Agatha, the first Eastern Pacific named storm of 2010, was short lived but deadly. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed twelve people in Guatemala, and one person in neighboring El Salvador. According to the excellent Guatemala weather site, climaya.com, rainfall amounts of up to 152 mm (six inches) in 24 hours have occurred in some regions of Guatemala. The National Hurricane Center is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 30 inches may fall the next few days in some mountainous regions near where the storm has dissipated. Adding to the mayhem is fallout from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting three days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Agatha at landfall. The storm was intensifying right up until landfall, and had an impressive "hot tower" of building cumulonimbus clouds near its center that brought heavy rains to Guatemala.
Figure 2. Flooding in Quetzaltenango, Zone 2, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Carlos Diaz, climaya.com
Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Winds are expected to shift to southwesterly on Wednesday and continue through Friday, increasing in force to 10 - 20 knots late in the week as a cold front approaches the Gulf. These persistent and strengthening southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to shore from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
I'll probably be back Monday with a quick update. Have a great holiday weekend!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I'm afraid our luck may finally run out.
lol the ridge axis is only the extent of the upper level high's anticyclonic flow. It does not need to be aligned with it to be in a favorable environment.
Charley didn't hit Tampa
What amazes me about this piece is the twisting of facts (probably liberal MSN's doing) that the 'drilling' was being done by a predecessor of transocean. The truth is the rig was owned and operated by Pemex, the Mexican state-run oil monopoly. The well leaked for over 9 months. Pemex used the claim of 'sovereign immunity' to avoid paying anything to help the clean up required in S Texas. So Mexico screwed the US then just like they do today. You can google Ixtoc and read all about it.
BP CEO Disputes Claims Of Underwater Oil Plumes
by (AP) VENICE, Louisiana
Published: Sun, May 30, 2010 - 2:55 pm CST Last Updated: Sun, May 30, 2010 - 4:19 pm CST
394 Views |Short URL: http://wkrg.com/891587
BP PLC CEO Tony Hayward is refuting claims by scientists that there are large undersea plumes from the Gulf oil spill.
Hayward said Sunday the oil is on the water's surface, and that BP's sampling showed "no evidence" of oil in the water column.
Scientists from several universities have reported plumes of what appears to be oil suspended in clouds that stretched for miles (kilometers) and reached hundreds of feet (meters) beneath the Gulf's surface.
Hayward also says the company is narrowing its response to the oil spill to the Louisiana coast and bulking up cleanup forces there for a fight that could last months.
Almost six weeks into the nation's worst spill, no significant oil has hit other Gulf states, but they remain guarded.
This system is elongated:
AMEN to that!
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the SE
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Visibility: 3.7 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
at the surface it is also somewhat elongated with the strongest area or what is likely the center near belize (image is hours old)
It's more favorable where you drew the dashed line than where Agatha is right now. It is more favorable directly under the axis than to either side of it, when you have an elongated upper high. If it was perfectly circular then it would not matter where Agatha was in relation to the center of the high, but in a situation like this it does matter. The ridge axis extends from Honduras towards the Cayman islands, and Agatha is west of that, under a strong southwesterly flow aloft. Again, her path of travel makes that less hostile than it could be, but not favorable either.
That picture can be showing a number of things. Positive vorticity advection, vorticity along the axis of the system, mountains stretching the circulation, multiple mid level vortices, etc.
Not really
And, strong southwesterly upper flow exaggerating all of those factors :)
To add on to that.. tampa got some winds but punta gorda, fl had the most impact from the hurricane.. even when it was a small compact storm but still had a good punch too it.. I think it got up too 150mph or near that..
/OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZMAY2010//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
65.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTI-
CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND CREATING A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVI-
RONMENT FOR THE LLCC. SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH SEA SUR-
FACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 31 CELSIUS BASED ON RECENT BUOY OBSERVA-
TIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BASED ON BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
It is the same in either direction. It doesn't matter where it is in relation to the axis. As long as it is within the flow then the system can get some outflow. It is only a very minor thing whether it is directly under the ridge axis. The high isn't as elongated as you think and high pressure is radial. I can extend, the extent of it from any direction.
You are mainly focused on the 200mb flow and not the flow around 850mb. And in regards to that, the flow is not as strong. As far as i'm concerned the ouflow aloft is fine.
The 200mb flow isn't going to stretch out the vorticity located at 700mb.
The flow in the mid levels doesn't look to be responsible for that either:
The MLC is impressive for the crossing. That's about it.
Tampa got the outer bands of Charley, and I think they got winds to TS force, but nothing like what areas to the south and east of Tampa got
We were never talking about the low-level flow and I don't see how that is relevant besides calculating vertical wind shear.
I consider the upper flow neither favorable nor destructive, but rather, inhibiting. We shall see.
NAME THE TOP FIVE WETTEST TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THEIR REMNANTS, IN MASSACHUSETTS.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The low level flow matter relative to the upper level flow to determine how detrimental things are to the system, and relative to it for that matter.
Floyd, 1999
I'm going to guess 2007 Barry and 1991 Bob.
And how in the world is Agatha so far east already? I still really doubt it'll redevelop, but I obviously missed a lot this afternoon.
That's more on topic than half the posts on this blog.
North TX has a handful of showers and thunderstorms. We have been very fortunate, no hail here this year, just lightning set my neighbors tree on fire, the torrential rain put it out 5 mins later though :O)!!
ya i know i was saying since the storm was compact.. That tampa had strong tropical storm winds and probably some tornadoes with it.. But had some friends in and near tampa, and they said that they got some tropical storm winds and maybe isolated tornado or two.. but then again sum spots of tampa could of got something..
but anywhere that was real close to punta gorda, fl had some good damage if i remember right.. Just saying..
the question you should ask is if it does not have a surface circulation anymore. The circulation extends to 850 mb which is in the low levels. As for a surface circulation, there isn't any evidence of such that I can see.
Dan, I think we all know BP wants this thing capped as much as anyone, really, but in the meantime I expect they are going to use every tool, every tactic, every connection they can utilize as much as possible to limit their exposure. Does that include lying? Sure it does. Does it include paying out money to citizens, to officials, to whomever/however for softening any exposure? Sure it does.
Aside from the lopsided, limited administration efforts, I've a few other spill-related concerns:
1. Over 14 nations have offered assistance, but haven't been allowed to help (save 2 maybe). Why?
2. With these deep-sea pressures and oil pressures, what guarantees do we have that even the relief wells will slow the flow of oil from the present leak(s)?
3. Another video/commentary surfaced yesterday from Matt Simmons, an investment banker in the energy industry, is saying there is more news than is being told - possibly another leaking fissure over seven miles westwards from the site and spewing as much as 120,000 bbls per day. (This reportedly to be discovered by a NOAA-commissioned ship. Video below.) Why is this not being reported?
Of course, Simmons is also advocating the possible use of nukes - which surely will be very, very cleverly examined and well-discerned before that is even considered even as an alternative of last resort.
This is of course, like many have pointed out, "unprecedented" - the truth is they don't have a solution or the thing would have been capped already. This is obviously a very large-volumed source of oil under tremendous pressures. We've tapped it, made a hole(s) for it to escape. If we go disrupting anymore of the earthern floor subduing it, the whole thing could collapse.
Lots of trouble. And, we are hearing only and just what they want us to hear. I'm convinced of that.
NAME THE TOP FIVE WETTEST TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THEIR REMNANTS, IN MASSACHUSETTS.
1. Diane (1955)
2. Long Island Express (1938)
3. Carrie (1972)
4.
5.
Eloise 1975
NAME THE TOP FIVE WETTEST TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THEIR REMNANTS, IN MASSACHUSETTS.
1. Diane (1955)
2. Long Island Express (1938)
3. Carrie (1972)
4. Eloise (1975)
5.
I listened to an interview yesterday of one of the people investigating the plumes, and when he was asked if he knew what was in the plumes, he said they did not know. They only know that the water is cloudy. The BP guy has some wiggle room.
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