Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras
Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.
Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.
The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thankfully we've got plenty of time and Mother Nature is very unpredictable!
not all that funny, that has been the trend with many of the models and why the NHC shifted their track east
yeah, I'm not sure where it is going,
where are you from?
Hi, and am I glad you guys are on after reviewing the last couple-few pages. I just came in to see what was shakin', and some of the stuff I've read is giving me a creepy feeling. I've seen some rot that said the system is going to go through FL, to NC, and form a N'oreaster (oh give me a break, but what do I know...not much). But then Patrap posted some excellent models and looks like concensus is building towards the GOM.
So would you please give Nana a bottom-line no-hype sensible forecast? Thanks! :)(:
Good ole Muncie,In
oh wow, I go to Purdue, and am form Washington Indiana
hey there,
hmm,
well I think it will cross Nicaragua and then move between Cuba and the Yucatan, possibly clipping the Yucatan, then maybe towards Florida.
Strength, well, maybe a cat 1 or 2 when it moves into the GOM, but then it hits cooler water the farther north is goes, so not sure after that
whoa, three Indiana people on at once :P
Yep, StormW posted a very clear pic of those cooler waters yesterday, actually all the waters in play -- I'm sure others posted similar -- and even I could "get" it. Thanks, I think you could be exactly right.
So cooler waters would keep it from LA or TX? Or am I off there?
Anyone is welcome to comment. Thanks, T'Dude.
A recent 37 GHz SSMIS overpass indicates that an eye feature is evident at the mid- and upper-levels. Had it not been for land interaction with Central America, Ida would probably have been a hurricane by now.
Yes it is Tampaspin.... So what is your take on Ida???? Do you think she will make Hurricane before Land fall????
Taco :0)
00Z GFS at 144 hours
Well the cooler waters would hinder it from being anything significant if it moved that way, but I dont think it will go in that direction, more likely towards Florida, but who knows at this point.
Oh no, pilin' on. Pls. remember I helped out during spring floods (waves white flag.)
Purdue is a great school, i'm actually looking to get into a met school and i looked at Purdue's courses. I'll likely end up here at B.S.U. however. I browsed you're blog and saw you have eas courses, are you going for a met degree? If so,what track? Wu-mail me if you are, i have to get to bed, but would like to talk to someone who's doing what i want to do.
Goodnight all, have fun cane tracking.
Should be some of the more accurate runs.
Looks extra-tropical
LOL youre fine :P
Yes I am pursuing a degree in meteorology, not sure which branch yet, to be honest, I'm kind of looking into broadcast, not sure yet, as I have plenty of time to decide.
have a goodnight
SSTs don't affect track -- theoretically, Ida could make landfall along the Gulf Coast despite the cold SSTs, it would just be significantly weaker by that time.
Seismic Monitor
AOI
AOI
or sheared, but really intensity is so problematic at this point, I am looking more at the track
Thank you! I understood that perfectly!
There's still some nebulous weather there that's going to cause gales, wave action, and some trouble along there, anyway, I read in here earlier. Does it have a label; I just don't know what to call it...uh, stormy weather? :)
Sure does look like it might....either way the sturcture of Ida is so good right not the land will not destroy its structure before emerging back into water....as long as the shear is not bad.
yea I agree, the structure on Ida is very impressive and she should survive
thanks for your service and sacrifice!
now to answer your question, i think its when the eye wall hits land. i don't think the whole eye has to be ashore. i live in Louisiana and it looks to headed to us from all the models I've been seeing. its OK if its a tropical storm, or even a cat. 1, but anything stronger makes me worry. our crap still isn't together, lol! our levees aren't really good yet and that's what concerns me. hope this storm doesn't get too big.
We're going to feel at least some peripheral effects from Ida, regardless of whether or not it ultimately ends up making landfall here -- strong vertical shear may advect moisture from the system northward.
Shame it wasnt a fish, this storm is looking so impressive, I'd like to see it as a cat 3... it'd be beautiful to look at... looks like that wont happen unless it pulls a Beta in the next like 6 hours.
Just by following the RGB loop, it seems like Ida will make landfall in the next 3 to 6 hours.
The question now comes whether Ida goes far enough inland to penetrate the hills of Nicaragua and eventually the mountains of Honduras and possibly dissipate, or if the storm stays just inland along the Nicaragua and Honduras coastal plain, and is able to maintain much of its structure (even if the storm slowly weakens).
Here is a 4 day shear forecast loop....some use other shear forecast but, i find this the best IMO. Click the graphic to loop!
Don't know that when it gets to the GOM that much will be left of it..as shear will start hitting it pretty hard unless things change....which it might....you can see the shear is relaxing some in the next 4 days....Shear is one thing that can change in a forecast in 24hrs...it is very tough for the best of models to be accurate in shear forecasting beyond 48hrs and that is not great.
Tropical Storm 11L
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 NOV 2009 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 12:30:54 N Lon : 83:07:19 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.5 4.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -75.4C Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
History File Listing
Satellite Imagery (JAVA movie)
Time Series
Experimental Wind Field Product
McIDAS | MATLAB
Most shear models also show the anticyclone following Ida on her trek northward, which for the msot part would shield her from the shear
lol and you base this on what?
A lot of the areas in the gulf states broke their record rainfalls last month. Here in Columbus, MS we still have rivers and creeks above flood stage. We really don't need anymore rain.
TampaSpin
I don't get it.. the steering patterns are west, its been moving almost due west all day... how its it supposed to make a north turn with weak steering currents and friction keeping it over land?
That's the bad thing, I know.
It's certainly not impossible for a November hurricane to be present in the Gulf of Mexico, even though it is rare. In November 1980, Hurricane Jeanne produced storm surge along the coast of Louisiana. Hopefully Ida pulls a Jeanne and dissipates prior to Gulf Coast landfall.
It was a cat 1 when it crossed over us too. I work on the weather equipment on Columbus AFB and we had 75 mph sustained winds and gusts over 100
Viewing: 601 - 651
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