A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.
Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.
Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.
Jeff Masters
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ten minute hold
23.45z presumed launch
sorry, getting the chater off the coms as it comes in.
UPDATE
There's a cargo ship in the "danger box" - declaring a NOGO for now...
they have a range go now BUT they cant restart the coundown computer. LOL
they want go NOW due to weather
new resume time is 13:45 with a launch at 13:49 =)
9:49 is the new launch time. They are going foward even with the ship in the box.
Good deal.
recycling computer systems
they are taking zero chances with this other than the frighter target practice LOL
No kidding. What's the price tag on this, 450m?
They're gonna have to reset to Wednesday I bet.
no more talk about the frieghter. Now a stupid cloud is holding us up.
A complicated machine and procedure. What did they say during Apollo, even if 99.9% of everything goes right, it would still mean about 10,000 other things went wrong?
now everyone is keeping their fingers crossed.
helos will be refueled in the time frame of this weather no go and be operational by the new weather window.
still no official word from flight if they will go with the new window.
Maybe this is a stupid question but If 2005 was an El Nino year why did we have so many storms? We are in an El Nino year and I thought this decreased Atlantic storms..I am still learning.
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