Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia
Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.
Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.
Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.
Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.
The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23°C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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And its going to look bad on their part if post season analysis revealed these systems were in fact subtropical at their prime.
Cleveland i don't believe has any Webicoders on it currently.
Long Range Radar
You can see Melor's eye on the Long Range
92L, the STS that hit New Jersey (with some of Erika in it) and now the 90L north of the Azores.. they've dropped the ball 4 times this year.
Cloud Seeding
Thanks, Typhoon Melor has bypassed Guam/Saipan, however the Mariana Islands are getting hit pretty hard
Blog Update
Another Subtropical Cyclone
Tropical Update
Typhoons Parma and Melor
Will some nation or American TV station DONATE one of their Doppler Systems!
Some here aren't aware of the realities of life period.
President Gloria Arroyo has declared a "state of calamity" throughout the island nation and ordered mass evacuations of six provinces.
Typhoon Parma is forecast to bring wind gusts gusts of over 200 kilometers per hour along with drenching rain likely to cause considerable flooding in the northern part of the Philippines.
Arroyo's declaration of emergency frees up funds to help the government respond to emergencies.
The commander of U.S. troops in the Pacific region, Admiral Timothy Keating, says two U.S. Navy ships with several hundred Marines on board are off the coast of Manila, ready to help after the typhoon passes. Link
I we name this we need to start naming the extratropical warm-cores (at least warmer core than this) we see occasionally off Greenland... water & air temps have been too cold to call it tropical..it's not barely 60ºF outside when a STS passes over head.
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