Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If you zoom in real close it says "Made in China".
;=)
Hurricane 03L
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 AUG 2009 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 17:22:38 N Lon : 53:36:08 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 923.1mb/140.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.9 7.1 7.1
raw T # is 7.1 bill is a cat 5 from looking at this
Hi Gordy! Great to see you.
Bill is not to be trifled with.
A major characteristic of an annular hurricane.
east coast big problemo
Exactly.
Bill is comparable will Isabel.
Just feel the need to clear this up for those that have not tracked a alot and haven't seen it clarified.
That overlay is basically no more than a 12hr forecast (current is 9). The first point is always current position and the next is 12hrs. Then it moves again.
If one were to go by that, NHC is 95% accurate. If not more. Heck, think I could hit that 9 hours out at that rate. ;)
Not bashing NHC by any means. Always start there for a reason, but to go by that for accuracy isn't demonstrative of anything beyond 12hrs.
I've been saying this all tonight. Anyone have the annular number for Bill?
Annular is not good. Those are the ones that can bust the trof... Not saying it is going to happen, don't want it to happen. Hope it follows the NHC path.
As a Gautier Resident who lost his home to Katrina I will never forget that freak of Nature... I remember in awe the might of weather and what it can do. I saw claudette forming from a Coast Guard Ship over the weekend doing sea trials and it was impressive how fast it formed. It make me feel very uncomfortable knowing how warm the waters of the Gulf are and having the remmnants of Anna aproaching the Gulf. All I hope is that it just stays dissorganized.
Well thats confirmed my thinking...Its went from a strong northerly biased WNW to a more W biased WNW.
Thats a Historical Storm for the ages,..and as one who didnt get out till Sept 16th ,.well,,one that will Last Image wise,too Long
Those who witness calamity,.I feel are duty Bound to relay there Sights and experiences,..sharing those Days Post storm here have been a cleansing in a way.
Calamity Knows no Borders,sadly..only men's Minds and Maps do.
And as those who suffered thru IKE and to this day Know all to well,How suddenly one can become,"those people"...,overnight.
Hi Tazzie. I hope you don't have me on block.
Dr. Masters used your 'pinhole eye' comment the other day quite masterfully, of course!
Sheri
If Bill becomes annular then its a different ball game.
Link
Ana is no more. The spinning south of cuba is a ULL... Maybe some rain... Some seem tot hink that if the moisture gets into the GOM it could form..
Bill - jury is still out. NHC still thinking a Fishy Bermuda storm. Others seem to think it could affect CONUS somewhere...
Dont be there if told to Leave,.it may be the Last Bad Decision you Make..
Hi Baha.
Bill is something to be worrisome about imo.
I have never seen such a well-formed storm that far out in the Atlantic. And it is entering a receptive environment. MOG.
Naturally, everyone is nervous. The question remains: How strong will that trough have to be to control Bill? Dr. Masters will definitely have to post another blog in the morning.
Pat, I can always locate my house (or what was left of it) in NOAA's aerial shots. Weather wise, she was a beautiful storm. Personally, she was devastating on so many levels. As a community, the loss of human life was horrific.
Thats a Historical Storm for the ages,..and as one who didnt get out till Sept 16th ,.well,,one that will Last Image wise,too Long
Quoting MisipiGrl:
"Thats a Historical Storm for the ages,..and as one who didnt get out till Sept 16th ,.well,,one that will Last Image wise,too Long"
I can only imagine! I fear that, for so many, they will never forget the images now implanted on their minds.
Thank you, for all of the great information you post here. I read often and am still attempting to learn.
Those who witness calamity,.I feel are duty Bound to relay there Sights and experiences,..sharing those Days Post storm here have been a cleansing in a way.
Calamity Knows no Borders,sadly..only men's Minds and Maps do.
And as those who suffered thru IKE and to this day Know all to well,How suddenly one can become,"those people"...,overnight.
I'm a Rita/Ike/Gustav/Humberto survivor, mostly Rita and Ike. It's just devistating what these storms can do, and if anyone thinks it's exciting to ride one out, try it once (I rode both Rita and Ike out) - the wind is just incredible, and the crushing noises and the tornadoes passing overhead that make you wonder whether or not your roof will hold - it will make you think twice before wishing for the excitement and amazement of a hurricane coming in.
Not to criticize anyone, but it is truly a horrible thing to wake up after barely sleeping and see the damage.
Take care all, and thanks for this community.
It would vary due to the size of the Hurricane....
But it could potentially be less affected by the trough.
I was 1 Mile west of this Condo,..
These Firemen effected rescue for 96 Hours straight,save for Night,..as it wasnt prudent to Nav the waters after Dark.
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