Still watching for a potential early-season Atlantic subtropical storm
The latest 00Z and 12Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to indicate the possibility of an early season subtropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico 3 - 7 days from now. A modest area of low shear air is expected to open up between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south, between Cuba and the northern Gulf of Mexico. The models have not been consistent with the timing or the size of this low shear area, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them back off again from this forecast with Sunday's set of runs. Nevertheless, I'll call once again for a 10% chance of development of a subtropical depression in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, 4 - 7 days from now. There isn't much of a disturbance at present to look at--there are some scattered showers between Cuba and Jamaica, but they are under a hefty 30 knots of wind shear. These showers should gradually increase in intensity and areal coverage over the next two days, and phase space diagrams from Florida State University indicate that an extratropical low may form near the western tip of Cuba 2 - 3 days from now. The storm may then gradually transition to a subtropical or tropical system later in the week, if the shear is low enough. Even if the shear is high and the storm remains extratropical, it could be a substantial rain-maker where it comes ashore. The models target the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle as the most likely landfall location, but it is too early to place any confidence in this track.
There is also about a 10% chance a subtropical storm may form in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.
Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.
Figure 1. Tracking map for the earliest hurricane to make landfall, the March 1908 hurricane in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.
List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1
I'll have an update Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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NO NO NO.....we are all just going to get a ton of rain which we all need......
OH here is some Troll Juice Recipes that you all might need today....LOL
Caribbean - Water Vapor Loop
how do you know his name if your new here JFV????
That sucks...I don't mind the occasional day of rain but when it gets excessive like that its not fun.
Sometimes an ULL can help Vent a system and help it Organize......but, that is usually during the Heat of Season.
It was raining all through the night and a little in the morning and it's cold now and more clouds rolling in from the east
200 hours from now answers your own question I think lol
Link
Link
Haven't been here for more than a couple days but you post just like him. Just sayin...
from who???,you just sound alot like him..sir and all..
Ding-ding-ding!!!!!!
Grow up or MOVE on.
Millions see here daily and your BS is embarrassing all of us.
If this system forms...it will be around Cuba or near the bahamas on monday into monday night..and it wont be more than subtropical @ best until the sheer relaxes and a ridge develops..otherwise it needs a warm core. ULL=cold core!
Rain and 77 degrees.
Have daughters Graduation today at 3 here.
Are you new?
I think I know you.
I hope your not talking to me....
Yes, Futuremet
I will not lie
Link
Hey, I'm doing good. Good to see you still around.
That's if it's under the ull. If the ull forms in the gulf and splits the subtropical jet (which ull's do if the cut off from the jet. There is almost always and area of lower shear somewhere east of a ull while higher shear everywhere else.) Then the storm can form tropically.
Cuban Radar,Pilón
I thought so. I wasn't going to say for fear of you know what.....
Funny how you can tell who someone is by their way of typing....
Model Cycle: 2009051706
Multi-Model
SREF Last 4 Cycles
Looks like it's going to do a loop-de-loop and then head back north.
And the season hasn't even started yet lol
Okay, let us abandon this subject, it will only cause a ruckus
(NO) Winds may gust in the 40-50 mph range offshore once this things makes it into the gulf when it may have the chance to spin up.The combination of tight pressure gradient between the low pressure system and the high will produce windy conditions across southeast florida with possible periods of heavy rainfall. Better get use to this as we are just embarking on the rainy season so daily thunderstorms are a way of life mon-sunday for the next few months.
not impossible,but close to it...sorry,
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOPING. TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST AND STORMIEST PERIOD WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL...EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING.
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