Still watching for a potential early-season Atlantic subtropical storm
The latest 00Z and 12Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to indicate the possibility of an early season subtropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico 3 - 7 days from now. A modest area of low shear air is expected to open up between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south, between Cuba and the northern Gulf of Mexico. The models have not been consistent with the timing or the size of this low shear area, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them back off again from this forecast with Sunday's set of runs. Nevertheless, I'll call once again for a 10% chance of development of a subtropical depression in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, 4 - 7 days from now. There isn't much of a disturbance at present to look at--there are some scattered showers between Cuba and Jamaica, but they are under a hefty 30 knots of wind shear. These showers should gradually increase in intensity and areal coverage over the next two days, and phase space diagrams from Florida State University indicate that an extratropical low may form near the western tip of Cuba 2 - 3 days from now. The storm may then gradually transition to a subtropical or tropical system later in the week, if the shear is low enough. Even if the shear is high and the storm remains extratropical, it could be a substantial rain-maker where it comes ashore. The models target the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle as the most likely landfall location, but it is too early to place any confidence in this track.
There is also about a 10% chance a subtropical storm may form in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.
Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.
Figure 1. Tracking map for the earliest hurricane to make landfall, the March 1908 hurricane in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.
List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1
I'll have an update Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Welcome back!
Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins.)
More TCHP this year than last at this time,easily.
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Gulf of Mexico Fields
Date: May 15 2009
15 May 2009
15 May 2008
LOL
Nice avatar...is that Andrew?
What is your take on the blob?
Distracting though LOL
Hey extreme.
Yeah, I keep watching it.
Not if ya cant see it, Squeaky Hint..LOL
I was just about to check that out...I got a new computer so I don't have any of my cool satellite and model links from last year.
was it a normal afternoon dropped or a 24 hr tendency, that is a drop compared to this time yesterday.
Thanks, Doc! Shear may prohibit development of a totally tropical system but it will do its part to add deep layer support for convection.
All the while this thing drifts NW-ish waiting for some lee troughing to develop over the central CONUS while high pressure over the NE drifts slowly eastward- Plenty rain over the coast as it approaches the weakness between these features.
A central gulf coast landfall would seem to split the difference between developing troughiness to the west and the departing high to the NE of the surface low.
Then some interaction as it gets absorbed by the next eastward moving system over the US. Who the heck knows when that will be. Note the long extended off-days for Vortex2! Could be Monday-a-week from now!
This system and its effects may be quite surprising.
Ahem !!
And that I wasnt forgotten lol
GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, ECMWF, and a few other lesser known ones all on for Development.
Yep, one by one we all show up again LOL
As for the "blob" near the Caymans we could sure use the rain.
Its an animated gif of the last radar image taken from NHC before the WSR-57 radar was blown off the roof. My experience with 160+mph winds in florida city.
Welcome back Extreme. Glad to have you back. Hope all has been well.
Thats an interesting observation right there. Keep us updated as it may suggest something could be happening.
Hey Extreme! Been awhile! The ole' crews back for yet another season.
Yeah, I was in Homestead for that one.
Guess my tropical weather senses drew me back maybe? lol
But looks like the initialization Point is OFF
My aunts house was on US1 and 312 street in florida city.
Definitely lower than yesterday.
Absolutely, like bears coming out of hibernation LOL
I really want the rain, my yard looks like Mars. So, I'll be less conservitive and say 50% chance of it.
The whole state needs it badly as usual. Need a fay to fix things up.
Hey Kman,
Of course here you go.
wow didn't realize it was actual radar shots ... I was thinking it was just an animated hypothetical apocolyptocane .... 0.0
Doing a Katrina in the path.
NOAA:Link
hope that gets you started extreme!!!Link
Yeah we were right off of US1 ourselves just north of Homestead, but still south of Cutler.
Thank you!
How would you describe it?
Sure HERE you go.
Well I tried LOL
Hell.
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