Emilia re-strengthens; 98E nearly a tropical depression; Daniel weakening
Hurricane Emilia has managed to re-strengthen into a major hurricane today, after completing its eyewall replacement cycle, which is typical for intense tropical cyclones. Recent satellite image suggests that the cyclone has some characteristics of an annular hurricane with weak spiral bands and relatively large eye. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) states that Emilia has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 960 mbar, making it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It is located roughly 750 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and it is moving west-northwestward at 9 mph.
Forecast for Emilia
Emilia may remain its current strength over the next 6 to 12 hours with marginally favorable conditions. After that, the system is expected to enter in unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures and dry atmospheric environment, which these should weaken it. Since the cyclone has an annular structure, it should weaken slowly over the next day or so. The system is anticipated to become a tropical depression or a remnant low by the time it crosses the 140°W longitude into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility. Emilia is forecasted to continue moving west-northwestward over the next several days under the influence of the southern periphery of the high pressure system. The cyclone is expected to turn westward in the next three to four days. Emilia is not expected to be a major threat to any land areas as a tropical cyclone; however, Emilia might bring some added showers to the Hawaiian Islands as a remnant low by the next eight days. Nearly all of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track.
Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Hurricane Emilia. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.
Invest 98E nearly a tropical depression
Invest 98E is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days. The tropical disturbance is situated about 425 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico as it is moving west-northwestward at roughly 10 mph. 98E is situated over very warm sea surface temperatures at 29°C, which should help the disturbance to further organize. Furthermore, recent satellite image reveals that the disturbance is continuing to show signs of organization as it is maintaining deep convection in the center, although some moderate wind shear is affecting the system. However, the SHIPS model forecasts the shear to lessen in the next 24 hours, which should allow 98E to strengthen to a tropical depression and eventually become a tropical storm. Many models are forecasting 98E to move northwestward and not threaten Mexico over the next several days. The NHC is giving 98E an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next two days.
Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Invest 98E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.
Tropical Depression Daniel continues to weaken
Daniel is continuing to weaken over the central Pacific as it is moving westward by the southern edge of the high pressure ridge. The latest CPHC advisory states that Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and minimum central pressure of 1006 mbar. It is located roughly 900 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii or 1105 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Recent satellite imagery depicts that the cyclone is lacking deep convection in the center. Daniel is expected to weaken further due to unfavorable conditions with increasing wind shear. It is forecasted to become a remnant low in the next 12 to 24 hours. Daniel is not a threat to the Hawaiian Islands.