Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
905 PM MST Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...hot and dry most of the week. Some moisture will seep
into eastern areas for a slight chance of mainly eastern mountain
thunderstorms by Friday and continuing into early next week.
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Discussion...clear skies prevail across Southeast Arizona at this time along
with light westerly/northwesterly winds. Convective complex over central/northestern
Chihuahua decaying at this time. However...outflow boundary moved
nwwd into south central New Mexico and produced a dewpoint jump of
15 degrees f at El Paso Texas with southeast wind gust to 25 kts during the
past hour.
At any rate...expect clear skies and light winds to occur across Southeast
Arizona the rest of tonight. There are no updates planned at this time.
Please refer to the previous discussion section below for additional
detail.
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Previous discussion /218 PM MST Wednesday Jun 19 2013/...models indicate that
the aforementioned high pressure will move a bit farther east
through late in the week to a position over the Southern Plains.
This will allow a bit of a moisture increase as flow around the
western flank of the high transports moisture north and eastward
across mainly portions of northern Mexico...southern New Mexico and
West Texas. The bulk of the convective activity that will develop
due to this setup will remain mostly to our south and east...but
can't rule out a lone shower/thunderstorm developing over the
mountains of east central Cochise County as early as tomorrow...but
especially as we work our way into the latter part of the week and
into the weekend.
By the early to middle portion of next week the high will move much
farther north and could potentially be positioned over the favorable
Four Corners region for an even greater moisture increase. That
said...I kept the inherited pop forecast for Sunday through
Wednesday even though MOS pop numbers indicate lesser chances than
what is in the official forecast.
High and low temperatures will generally be 1 to 3 degrees above normal
through the forecast period.
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Aviation...skc-few clouds above 20k feet above ground level through Thursday afternoon
or 21/00z. Surface wind Thursday afternoon westerly/southwesterly 12-20 kts with
gusts to near 30 kts...strongest wind east and south of ktus.
Otherwise...surface wind less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
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Fire weather...hot and mainly dry conditions will prevail into the
middle of next week. Gusty winds will also occur during the
afternoon hours due to strong daytime heating. There is also a
slight chance of mainly dry thunderstorms Friday through Wednesday
for areas east and south of Tucson.
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Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none.
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Bf
previous discussion...GM
